I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.
50+ yards, 80+ yards, whatever
you can count on mir to discount logic and statistics. you are really an educator? this is how you figure situations with imperfect information, and on
average it would be the best decision to make. a lot better than "it is definitely x because it's just my opinion" which is really stupid logically. there's a reason analytics is winning in sports. if you can find better numbers, it would be interesting to see how it affects the result.
using average nfl stats for 2 average teams sounds about right. it is a similar enough game, and i have to ballpark it anyways. but here's how it looks when i swing everything in favor of kneeling:
4 touchdowns more. and this assumes they're fumbling 1 out of every 33 carries when they're going to be safer with the football. fumbles is a high variance stat, while fumbling a lot earlier will make it more likely it happens, assuming one is going to fumble this much is gambler's fallacy. nfl top 10 rush attempts average 1.2% fumbles.
also if we're going off how the game is going to that point, taking out warren's long run, he's still averaging 5 yards a carry. isu making a first down at 50% seems pretty low, but ksu getting a td 50% of the time from the 50 is way too high. the best teams score touchdowns 66% of the time in the redzone (from any yard line), and now you have the clock against you without timeouts. ksu does well in the redzone, but it's not because of passing.
it's all a close decision anyways. to be 100% sure of a decision based on some guess, makes you a dumbass.