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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: K-S-U-Wildcats! on November 22, 2015, 08:28:40 AM
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Quick question for the college footballers. Paul Rhodes mentioned that he was just following a chart that tells when to kneel and punt versus run for first down.
Is that real and how's it work? It would seem to be a seriously complicated chart when considering all the variables like time remaining, to's remaining, lead, and field position that would come into play.
And even then, wouldn't you have to update the chart weekly based on opponent's return game, your punter, return coverage, tendency to fumble, etc.? I guess I could see Snyder making some lowly assistant do that but wow.
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There is absolutely a chart that they make about clock issues. It is a chart to remove the chance of having to do mental math. But it is tortured logic to believe that a chart that shows how much time they can run off the clock considering timeouts would lead to that decision. Blaming it on the chart is so LOL, but there are many, many coaches that are only capable of any strategic thinking by relying on these immovable tools that were figure in the off season or in the game week prep.
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I mean it is just amazing how Paul ascribes near omniscient power to his laminated sheet of paper and that well it obviously let him down but we will continue to have absolute faith in it because it exists to give us the answers.
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Ok yeah, so seems like it's a pretty simple chart that only takes a few things into account, and a coach would be a fool to blindly rely upon it unless it said they could mathematically kneel out the game.
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Fwiw, you can buy play hard charts at Dicks
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On what planet did Paul Rhodes think that KState was going to drive it 80 yards in 20 seconds or less?
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Rhoads' chart rationale at 1:30 left: If they run the ball on first down, they would probably then have two kneel downs and then the game is over. If they kneel down on first down, they would probably then have two more kneel downs and then a punt.
I don't think it's bad strategy at all. In fact, his decision to follow that rationale seems like a good one to me. Three kneel downs and a punt also seems like a good decision to me.
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Many times in that situation trying to get a first down and avoiding a punt makes some sense. But when your team has already fumbled 6 times and lost 3 then it doesn't, but football coaches often freak out about late game punt situations for some reason.
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I don't blame him for trying to get the first down.
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Punts are risky, too. And ESPECIALLY when you're looking across the field at Sean Snyder.
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Punt out of bounds and time may have expired. No way cats tie on a hail mary pass...I mean bazooka misfires ever-y-time.
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Knee, knee, knee, tie shoe, punt, time out, time out, joe throws 100' over cook's head 7yrds past the line of scrimmage.
Paul's new customized chart.
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
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I don't think it's an egregiously bad decision. Punts can blow up, ask Michigan
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i dont think he factored in the origami rose into his calculations. Also, not playing for overtime was kind of strange, given the absolute meltdown his team had just encountered.
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I guarantee the chart didn't take into account ISU's fumble or the Cats crappy hurry up offense. And neither did Paul.
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I believe he didn't say they were going for the first, they were just trying to run the ball around a little to drain extra time off the clock running the ball around.
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I believe he didn't say they were going for the first, they were just trying to run the ball around a little to drain extra time off the clock running the ball around.
Then why not just hold the ball/run backwards kinda like USC? did a few years ago?
I mean either kneel and punt, or try to roll off those last few seconds by moving backwards, but running a fumble probe RB up the middle?
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His players threw the game because they're tired of being coached by an insufferable ass clown.
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You kneel this game and win it. We had one timeout left that LHC Bill Snyder probably even forgot we had.
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
what about not playing for overtime chum, was that a failure of strategy?
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
what about not playing for overtime chum, was that a failure of strategy?
I'm not sure there's a clear answer there. Sometimes, being aggressive pays off. Sometimes, it doesn't. Rarely, it ends in complete, heartbreaking disaster. Right?
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
Running it with the dude who had just fumbled the ball is an issue of strategy just as much as it is having Hubes throw the ball around like he's Peyton Manning.
Yea, you can say "it's not supposed to work like that" but you can't just ignore your personnel.
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4th down. Throw a Hail Mary 50 yards in the air and 50 yards down field. Time expires.
Gonna win 'em all!
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
what about not playing for overtime chum, was that a failure of strategy?
I'm not sure there's a clear answer there. Sometimes, being aggressive pays off. Sometimes, it doesn't. Rarely, it ends in complete, heartbreaking disaster. Right?
yea it is all pretty murky with this stuff, he just got unlucky I guess.
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
Running it with the dude who had just fumbled the ball is an issue of strategy just as much as it is having Hubes throw the ball around like he's Peyton Manning.
Yea, you can say "it's not supposed to work like that" but you can't just ignore your personnel.
I think that Warren guy has been pretty good for them all year.
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
The play clock is :40 and begins as soon as the previous play ends. It was terrible math.
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If he was using a 25 second clock for his chart then I was right about his math being wrong
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IMO, the decision to try to score from their own 25 with :20 left is much more indefensible than the decision to run a play instead of taking a knee with 1:30 left.
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IMO, the decision to try to score from their own 25 with :20 left is much more indefensible than the decision to run a play instead of taking a knee with 1:30 left.
I honestly don't think either decision in a vacuum is wrong. It's just like, read the room Paul. Your guys have been reeling the entire half and you want to run a couple more plays just to see what happens?
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IMO, the decision to try to score from their own 25 with :20 left is much more indefensible than the decision to run a play instead of taking a knee with 1:30 left.
I honestly don't think either decision in a vacuum is wrong. It's just like, read the room Paul. Your guys have been reeling the entire half and you want to run a couple more plays just to see what happens?
The play before their final fumble resulted in their QB nearly being sacked. At that point any HC with a brain in his head pumps the brakes and settles for OT.
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I don't think the math used to create the chart was sound.
Game clock was at 1:31. 3 * 25 second play clock = 1:15 on play clock. Sometimes, it seems that refs spot the ball in just a second or two at the end of the game. But you'd want to error on the side of caution with time to spot the ball regardless.
If he'd decided otherwise and his punt was blocked and returned for a touchdown, was kneeling down three times and punting a bad decision?
These are failures of execution, not strategy.
The play clock is :40 and begins as soon as the previous play ends. It was terrible math.
Ha! I am old!
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We had one timeout left...you bend the knee. Especially after you had eight fumbles (four lost) throughout the game.
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Warren had fumbled earlier in the game, but any back in the nation would have fumbled once Will Geary got his arms around that football. That kid is just a freak of nature.
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Paul Rhoads is the same thing as an obnoxious fan, he spits when he yells, doesnt know the rules, doesn't wear a head set, screams at the ref all game, and jumps for joy when his team does something good. The guy who wins the madden tournaments is far more qualified.
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I don't think it's an egregiously bad decision. Punts can blow up, ask Michigan
I sure hope he didn't factor in a one in a lifetime freak incident. Even so I don't think he needed to punt at all, four kneel downs wouldn't have been terrible if you're so paralyzed by the prospect of muffing a punt that gets returned for a touchdown.
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i didn't watch game, i don't know the timing situation. i did the math, here are my assumptions:
- if ISU ran 3 times and punted, KSU would get the ball back with 1 hail mary shot from 80+ yards away. ISU has a 60% chance of getting a first. hail mary shot is a 2% chance of scoring a td.
- if ISU fumbles, KSU gets the ball at midfield, and scores a td 40% of the time.
- if ISU kneels and punts, KSU would get the ball back with 1 hail mary shot from 80+ yards away.
on fumble rate, it is 1.2% for top 5 nfl backs. multiply that by 3, is 3.6% they fumble during the drive. lose half the time, so 1.8%. but most likely the runs are safe, so i just made it so they lose the ball 1.2% of the time.
if the situation was done 1000 times:
600 times ISU wins when getting first down.
fumble lost 12 times, KSU will score td 5 times.
punt 388 times, KSU will score td 8 times.
total KSU scores 13 tds.
ISU kneels and punts, KSU gets a hail mary attempt.
1000 times ISU punts.
1000*.02 times KSU scores td = 20.
based on my math, running the ball was better
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So are we just supposed to ignore that the only non-made up number in all of that was the fumble rate for the 5 best NFL running backs?
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So are we just supposed to ignore that the only non-made up number in all of that was the fumble rate for the 5 best NFL running backs?
the only made up number was converting a first down 60% of the time, and semi-made up number is KSU scoring 40% of the time from mid field. based it off http://www.footballdb.com/stats/drives.html and https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct, took roughly the middle, and made it harder to score based on isu playing more prevent.
actually on second look, KSU scoring 40% of the time from mid field is definitely high. plus if the 3rd run was fumbled, there would be a lot less time on the clock. making running the ball even better.
*fumble rate is definitely not 1.2% + 1.2% + 1.2% actually, but whatever, won't be a big difference
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Not scoring at all in the second half after putting up 35 in the first was far more egregious than not kneeling.
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ISU had 1st and 10 w/1:31 left. Do a kneel-down where the qb backs up and jacks around for a couple seconds before going down. Probably KSU TO at 1:27. Do another 3-second kneel-down on 2nd down. ISU probably has the 3rd-down pay clock running out at :44 or :43. Do another 3-second kneel-down on 3rd down. Game over or worst-case, literally anything they do on 4th down that doesn't put the ball in KSU's hands (another kneel-down, throwing it out of bounds, etc.) ends the game.
*I never pay attention anymore to how the play-clock rules go but someone said ITT it'd 40 seconds from when the prior play ends regardless of what sort of play it was or how long it takes for the refs to spot the ball and get set for the next play.
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http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000585317/Panthers-Brad-Nortman-hangs-out-in-the-back-of-the-endzone-for-a-safety
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I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.
An issue with ISU fumbling that has not been discussed is that was the first cold weather game both teams have played this year. Holding the football is always harder in cold weather because the ball is harder and less tacky. I mentioned to Chocolate Thundarr before the game that I thought it would be a much larger issue for K-State because they didn't even have the chance to practice in the cold. Yesterday, I heard that Rhoads had them practice inside last week.
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I guess to be fair, going into this game K-State had one of the worst forced TO rates in college football, so there's that. But MIR's point about cold weather and the fact that ISU had been fumbling the ball a bunch in the 2nd half (and all game) is more than a justifiable reason for ISU to kneel 3 times and then run around with the ball on 4th down and fall down when the clock runs out. Rhoads and whoever his OC deserve any and all criticism from their handling the end of that game because they absolutely cost their team a win.
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Anyone want to try to justify the decision to not kneel on the ball to go into overtime?
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at some point its on the players not to fumble too. the not kneeling before OT was the worse of the 2 calls IMO
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what kind of term is "bend the knee"? a weird one. just say kneel, my goodness.
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Anyone want to try to justify the decision to not kneel on the ball to go into overtime?
All I can think of is that often road teams don't want to go to overtime and want to win it in regulation. ISU might have thought that even more so because of the way they let the game get tied. In post game Rhoads said they were trying to run a couple plays they thought were fairly safe that could get them near midfield and then take a chance to get into field goal range with the wind at their back.
at some point its on the players not to fumble too. the not kneeling before OT was the worse of the 2 calls IMO
This is true, but to me its up to the coaches to put their guys in the best possible situation to win a game. Why give the ball to a guy that has already fumbled earlier in the same quarter? The risks associated with kneeling 3 times and K-State using 1 timeout are way lower than running the ball into the middle of the defense where guys can hold the ball carrier up and go for a strip. Even running a play to the edge and telling the ball carrier to slide before going out of bounds is safer because a) it uses more clock and b) it doesn't allow the defense to gang tackle and go for a strip. An inside run play in that situation with an inexperienced back that has already fumbled simply was a dumb coaching decision that can't be justified IMO.
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I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.
An issue with ISU fumbling that has not been discussed is that was the first cold weather game both teams have played this year. Holding the football is always harder in cold weather because the ball is harder and less tacky. I mentioned to Chocolate Thundarr before the game that I thought it would be a much larger issue for K-State because they didn't even have the chance to practice in the cold. Yesterday, I heard that Rhoads had them practice inside last week.
They were on the KSU 44.
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what kind of term is "bend the knee"? a weird one. just say kneel, my goodness.
No. Winter is coming.
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I don't care about either decision
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Really, I think that situation is one where there's really "no bad decision." Either decision he makes still results in an overwhelming statistical probability that ISU wins. I think we're talking about moving the odds of k-state winning from maybe like 2% to 3%.
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Really, I think that situation is one where there's really "no bad decision." Either decision he makes still results in an overwhelming statistical probability that ISU wins. I think we're talking about moving the odds of k-state winning from maybe like 2% to 3%.
I think kneeling out was clearly the correct choice, but the reality is ISU was losing that game no matter what, somehow. They suck, and they were playing K-State.
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Really, I think that situation is one where there's really "no bad decision." Either decision he makes still results in an overwhelming statistical probability that ISU wins. I think we're talking about moving the odds of k-state winning from maybe like 2% to 3%.
I think kneeling out was clearly the correct choice, but the reality is ISU was losing that game no matter what, somehow. They suck, and they were playing K-State.
Yep. Let the stats say what they say, but ISU always had a 100% chance of losing the game. That's just the kind of team they are. I mean, even Cantele nailed a clutch long FG in cold weather to win it. The same guy who got benched just last year.
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I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.
50+ yards, 80+ yards, whatever
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1039.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa479%2Fhatch113%2Fhailmary.png&hash=06e6f6670bb6f175bb2c388342ebfdd987e2138a)
you can count on mir to discount logic and statistics. you are really an educator? this is how you figure situations with imperfect information, and on average it would be the best decision to make. (https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/the-wisdom-of-crowds-and-bean-jar-experiments/) a lot better than "it is definitely x because it's just my opinion" which is really stupid logically. there's a reason analytics is winning in sports. if you can find better numbers, it would be interesting to see how it affects the result.
using average nfl stats for 2 average teams sounds about right. it is a similar enough game, and i have to ballpark it anyways. but here's how it looks when i swing everything in favor of kneeling:
(https://i.gyazo.com/6fd8e3ca125edbf4518fab8cfce54af7.png)
4 touchdowns more. and this assumes they're fumbling 1 out of every 33 carries when they're going to be safer with the football. fumbles is a high variance stat, while fumbling a lot earlier will make it more likely it happens, assuming one is going to fumble this much is gambler's fallacy. nfl top 10 rush attempts average 1.2% fumbles.
also if we're going off how the game is going to that point, taking out warren's long run, he's still averaging 5 yards a carry. isu making a first down at 50% seems pretty low, but ksu getting a td 50% of the time from the 50 is way too high. the best teams score touchdowns 66% of the time in the redzone (from any yard line), and now you have the clock against you without timeouts. ksu does well in the redzone, but it's not because of passing.
it's all a close decision anyways. to be 100% sure of a decision based on some guess, makes you a dumbass.
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Look man, I'm pretty sure ISU is not firing the chart. They just let Rhoads go because he relied on a laminated piece of paper (which probably agrees with your analysis) instead of paying any attention whatsoever to what was happening in the rough ridin' game.
The guy didn't even realize his shoe was untied until KSU scored with 40 seconds left in the game.
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I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.
50+ yards, 80+ yards, whatever
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1039.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa479%2Fhatch113%2Fhailmary.png&hash=06e6f6670bb6f175bb2c388342ebfdd987e2138a)
you can count on mir to discount logic and statistics. you are really an educator? this is how you figure situations with imperfect information, and on average it would be the best decision to make. (https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/the-wisdom-of-crowds-and-bean-jar-experiments/) a lot better than "it is definitely x because it's just my opinion" which is really stupid logically. there's a reason analytics is winning in sports. if you can find better numbers, it would be interesting to see how it affects the result.
using average nfl stats for 2 average teams sounds about right. it is a similar enough game, and i have to ballpark it anyways. but here's how it looks when i swing everything in favor of kneeling:
(https://i.gyazo.com/6fd8e3ca125edbf4518fab8cfce54af7.png)
4 touchdowns more. and this assumes they're fumbling 1 out of every 33 carries when they're going to be safer with the football. fumbles is a high variance stat, while fumbling a lot earlier will make it more likely it happens, assuming one is going to fumble this much is gambler's fallacy. nfl top 10 rush attempts average 1.2% fumbles.
also if we're going off how the game is going to that point, taking out warren's long run, he's still averaging 5 yards a carry. isu making a first down at 50% seems pretty low, but ksu getting a td 50% of the time from the 50 is way too high. the best teams score touchdowns 66% of the time in the redzone (from any yard line), and now you have the clock against you without timeouts. ksu does well in the redzone, but it's not because of passing.
it's all a close decision anyways. to be 100% sure of a decision based on some guess, makes you a dumbass.
Actual stat from the day:
44 carries and 8 fumbles.
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Actual stat from the day:
44 carries and 8 fumbles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Reverse_fallacy
http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219
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Actual stat from the day:
44 carries and 8 fumbles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Reverse_fallacy
http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219
I think it's absurd to assume that fumbling is perfectly odds based.
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I didn't read the whole post because the 80+ yards is made up, there is no way that punter is unloading a 50 yard plus punt in that wind at that time in the game. The first down and touchdown percentages are also fraudulent because they aren't based what actually happened at that specific game to that point. Disregarding all of this obviously using nfl stats for two average college teams is obviously flawed.
50+ yards, 80+ yards, whatever
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1039.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa479%2Fhatch113%2Fhailmary.png&hash=06e6f6670bb6f175bb2c388342ebfdd987e2138a)
you can count on mir to discount logic and statistics. you are really an educator? this is how you figure situations with imperfect information, and on average it would be the best decision to make. (https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2013/09/17/the-wisdom-of-crowds-and-bean-jar-experiments/) a lot better than "it is definitely x because it's just my opinion" which is really stupid logically. there's a reason analytics is winning in sports. if you can find better numbers, it would be interesting to see how it affects the result.
using average nfl stats for 2 average teams sounds about right. it is a similar enough game, and i have to ballpark it anyways. but here's how it looks when i swing everything in favor of kneeling:
(https://i.gyazo.com/6fd8e3ca125edbf4518fab8cfce54af7.png)
4 touchdowns more. and this assumes they're fumbling 1 out of every 33 carries when they're going to be safer with the football. fumbles is a high variance stat, while fumbling a lot earlier will make it more likely it happens, assuming one is going to fumble this much is gambler's fallacy. nfl top 10 rush attempts average 1.2% fumbles.
also if we're going off how the game is going to that point, taking out warren's long run, he's still averaging 5 yards a carry. isu making a first down at 50% seems pretty low, but ksu getting a td 50% of the time from the 50 is way too high. the best teams score touchdowns 66% of the time in the redzone (from any yard line), and now you have the clock against you without timeouts. ksu does well in the redzone, but it's not because of passing.
it's all a close decision anyways. to be 100% sure of a decision based on some guess, makes you a dumbass.
how did you calculate ISU first down %?
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how did you calculate ISU first down %?
this stat was sort of a guess, i couldn't find anything for this. i noticed isu had 21 firsts, 5 td's and was 5/11 on 3rd. also 5 turnovers (but this is way higher than average). but even that, 26 conversions, 11 fails is still 70% converting a first or touchdown.
i had that bend/break post, and i had them converting first downs at 80%+ and it seemed to check out, i dont remember if i got that number from anywhere.
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Actual stat from the day:
44 carries and 8 fumbles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy#Reverse_fallacy
http://www.amazon.com/Fooled-Randomness-Hidden-Markets-Incerto/dp/0812975219
Game conditions and ability of players are obviously major inputs. It isn't random chance. But carry on.
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how did you calculate ISU first down %?
this stat was sort of a guess, i couldn't find anything for this. i noticed isu had 21 firsts, 5 td's and was 5/11 on 3rd. also 5 turnovers (but this is way higher than average). but even that, 26 conversions, 11 fails is still 70% converting a first or touchdown.
i had that bend/break post, and i had them converting first downs at 80%+ and it seemed to check out, i dont remember if i got that number from anywhere.
It's a pretty major factor of your calculation and almost impossible to accurately estimate, given the unique scenario and number of factors - plus you can't use their previous first down numbers to justify what you came up with just like you can't use the fumble numbers during the game to expect a fumble.
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfYABITe.gif&hash=606de5c4ecf0f52b3052d3a007a4053469f4c5e5)
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It's a pretty major factor of your calculation and almost impossible to accurately estimate, given the unique scenario and number of factors - plus you can't use their previous first down numbers to justify what you came up with just like you can't use the fumble numbers during the game to expect a fumble.
changing the first down 10% in either direction only changes touchdowns by 2.
when you don't have the stats, and it seems normal (21 first downs, 5 touchdowns and 5/11 3rd down, it's not like 8 fumbles), you can use it more confidently. if anything because of turnovers, first down % should be higher. something to do with standard deviation or bell curves
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Game conditions and ability of players are obviously major inputs. It isn't random chance. But carry on.
it was never random chance.
anyways using 8 fumbles is off when he had 1 in 21 carries before. before his last fumble, he was 1.9% for the season (his last fumble was unknown beforehand obv), now he is at 2.4% (he only had 3 fumbles before this game).
here it is with data improved. you could argue for more fumbles, i could argue for better 1st down %.
(https://i.gyazo.com/0a00209d8fa00886b9de2b6df261e88b.png)
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Game conditions and ability of players are obviously major inputs. It isn't random chance. But carry on.
it was never random chance.
anyways using 8 fumbles is off when he had 1 in 21 carries before. before his last fumble, he was 1.9% for the season (his last fumble was unknown beforehand obv), now he is at 2.4% (he only had 3 fumbles before this game).
here it is with data improved. you could argue for more fumbles, i could argue for better 1st down %.
(https://i.gyazo.com/0a00209d8fa00886b9de2b6df261e88b.png)
IMO all the numbers are skewed because KSU is both placing extra emphasis on stopping the run and creating turnovers. (granted, ISU should have been placing emphasis on preventing turnovers, too). The first down numbers might get more predictable when passing is included as an option, but then the clock situation completely changes.
I don't think you're necessarily wrong, but I don't think the data you're using is sufficient to confirm that you're right, either.
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Where is the Will Geary factor? I don't see it on here.
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The hilarious part that we are obscuring with this nonsense diversion is that Iowa State very likely could've run out the clock without even risking getting tackled.
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When the origami rose is around there is always a risk.
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The hilarious part that we are obscuring with this nonsense diversion is that Iowa State very likely could've run out the clock without even risking getting tackled.
Yeah, I'm confused. So could they have knelt out the clock or would they have had to punt? Does it depend? On what?
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Game conditions and ability of players are obviously major inputs. It isn't random chance. But carry on.
it was never random chance.
anyways using 8 fumbles is off when he had 1 in 21 carries before. before his last fumble, he was 1.9% for the season (his last fumble was unknown beforehand obv), now he is at 2.4% (he only had 3 fumbles before this game).
here it is with data improved. you could argue for more fumbles, i could argue for better 1st down %.
(https://i.gyazo.com/0a00209d8fa00886b9de2b6df261e88b.png)
IMO all the numbers are skewed because KSU is both placing extra emphasis on stopping the run and creating turnovers. (granted, ISU should have been placing emphasis on preventing turnovers, too). The first down numbers might get more predictable when passing is included as an option, but then the clock situation completely changes.
I don't think you're necessarily wrong, but I don't think the data you're using is sufficient to confirm that you're right, either.
yea can never know for certain with these things, but one thing that is for sure is that it is close either way. one argument for kneeling and punting is the loss can't be pinned on a coaching decision.
wonder how vegas does their thing. i really like this stuff
The hilarious part that we are obscuring with this nonsense diversion is that Iowa State very likely could've run out the clock without even risking getting tackled.
comparing the situations in the thread topic = nonsense diversion
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The hilarious part that we are obscuring with this nonsense diversion is that Iowa State very likely could've run out the clock without even risking getting tackled.
Yeah, I'm confused. So could they have knelt out the clock or would they have had to punt? Does it depend? On what?
They would have had to punt, but they could have just punted the ball out of bounds, giving K-State 1 play to go 80 or so yards.
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The hilarious part that we are obscuring with this nonsense diversion is that Iowa State very likely could've run out the clock without even risking getting tackled.
Objectively, yes, and they should've tried. But they'd have mumped it up.
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The hilarious part that we are obscuring with this nonsense diversion is that Iowa State very likely could've run out the clock without even risking getting tackled.
Yeah, I'm confused. So could they have knelt out the clock or would they have had to punt? Does it depend? On what?
They would have had to punt, but they could have just punted the ball out of bounds, giving K-State 1 play to go 80 or so yards.
In these situations I don't think coaches worry as much about the return as they do bad snaps or blocked punts. But as MIR said, the Michigan State/Michigan thing happens very, very rarely so its pretty dumb to worry about.
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If you're Rhoads, the decision isn't critical because it determines the outcome of the game. It is critical because it determines whether or not you're giving ISU an easy excuse to fire you.
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Kneel, (ksu timeout), kneel, kneel, delay of game. ISU is punting it to Kstate with 6 seconds left.
Let's say its a crappy punt...and it goes 25 yards with only 4 seconds run off after a fair catch. That means its 1st and 10, KSU at the KSU 45 with one last heave to the endzone.
Or, you could run Warren up the gut who was last seen visibly crying after his first fumble. Good one Rhodes.
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kstate vs. usc in 2001.
This is how you milk the sumbitch'
It helped that Scobey and Cartwright were men unlike that little fleeb Warren.
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Kneel, (ksu timeout), kneel, kneel, delay of game. ISU is punting it to Kstate with 6 seconds left.
Let's say its a crappy punt...and it goes 25 yards with only 4 seconds run off after a fair catch. That means its 1st and 10, KSU at the KSU 45 with one last heave to the endzone.
Or, you could run Warren up the gut who was last seen visibly crying after his first fumble. Good one Rhodes.
This ignores the fact that, had ISU punted, we would have returned it for a TD. Then we would have fumbled the snap on the XP and end up running it into the end zone for the win.
ISU was going to lose this game no matter what, it's just that Paul probably would still have his job in the second scenario.
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kstate vs. usc in 2001.
This is how you milk the sumbitch'
It helped that Scobey and Cartwright were men unlike that little fleeb Warren.
Daniel Thomas snuffing out the Squawks with his iron will during the 2009 Dillons' is my personal favorite.
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2013 NDSU was really effective