i didn't watch game, i don't know the timing situation. i did the math, here are my assumptions:
- if ISU ran 3 times and punted, KSU would get the ball back with 1 hail mary shot from 80+ yards away. ISU has a 60% chance of getting a first. hail mary shot is a 2% chance of scoring a td.
- if ISU fumbles, KSU gets the ball at midfield, and scores a td 40% of the time.
- if ISU kneels and punts, KSU would get the ball back with 1 hail mary shot from 80+ yards away.
on fumble rate, it is 1.2% for top 5 nfl backs. multiply that by 3, is 3.6% they fumble during the drive. lose half the time, so 1.8%. but most likely the runs are safe, so i just made it so they lose the ball 1.2% of the time.
if the situation was done 1000 times:
600 times ISU wins when getting first down.
fumble lost 12 times, KSU will score td 5 times.
punt 388 times, KSU will score td 8 times.
total KSU scores 13 tds.
ISU kneels and punts, KSU gets a hail mary attempt.
1000 times ISU punts.
1000*.02 times KSU scores td = 20.
based on my math, running the ball was better