Thoughts steffy?
Yep, I had it pretty close.
The line opened at 6.5, which is higher than my 1-3, but I also said you have to take in to account that last weekend's results might change the spread.
TCU opened at 17 point favorites verses UT, and won by 43. So, they outperformed by 26 points against UT. When you take 26 divided by 5 (TCU total games), TCU looks like about a five-point better team than they were this time last week.
We opened at 4 point dogs verses OSU, and we lost by 2. Which means we outperformed by 6 points. When you take 6 points divided by 4 (KSU total games), KSU looks like about a 1.5 point better team than they were this time last week.
So, TCU is 5 points better this week, and KSU is 1.5 points better this week. Which means TCU is going to get an extra 3.5 points this week as compared to last week.
So, if you take 6.5 (opening line this week) minus the 3.5 adjustment for last week games, you get TCU -3. Which is what I predicted, subject to the events of this weekend. (Not to mention, the line is probably inflated a little bit by the fact that we played most of last weekend with an fn wr at QB, and then he got hurt.)