Speaking of Nate Silver, I really like the following page in terms of national polling.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/Over the course of the election, Hillary has kind of topped out at 45-46%, and she's lived in that range since about the second debate (when she reached her apex). None of that has really subsided. What's changed in a lot of these polls in the past week is that Trump has moved from his typical range (39%-41%) to 41.8%. All of that rise is coinciding (not exactly proportionally) with Gary Johnson's decrease.
On 10/17, Clinton had a 6.9% lead over trump, and Gary Johnson had 6.3% of the vote. Now, she has a 3.3% lead, and Johnson's polling has gone down 1.6%. Some of this is obviously Republicans coming home to Trump, some independents shifting to Trump, but a decent chunk has to be Gary Johnson voters jumping ship and heading over to Donald.
