According to this map there are 8 toss up states. I think each candidate has as good a chance as the other to win them. Trump basically needs to win all of them.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html
The most recent poll in each state has him leading in all, except Colorado where he is down 1 point.
As all this news about hillary and the dnc's bullshit, cronyism, cheating, lying and fraud continues to break, it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that he wins all those states.
I don't think early voting is any indicator of how the independent undecided will vote, as they are usually too stupid to know that's an option.
I don't like RCP. Unless I'm missing something, they don't weight the polls differently based on quality like FiveThirtyEight does.
Here's the thing about all of the polls that flummoxes me. I hear one side say that there are a lot of "hidden" Trump voters that will not admit to voting for Trump in a phone poll, but when I actually read some of the polling data in a lot of these individual states, Hillary is winning large demographic groups that are critical to winning the election.
Trump can't lean on white men and women without college degrees if she's winning women overall and obliterating him with minorities and those with college degrees.
Something has to give. I fully believe these polls are under-representing something, at least a tiny bit, but the overwhelming amount of data says that even in his best times, he's been an arm or hands length away from her, and in her best times, she's been two car lengths ahead.
Even with the Comey news, I wouldn't be at all surprised if she still wins this thing by 4-5 points, nationally, and gets close to 300 electoral college votes. I firmly believe he's walking away with Iowa and Ohio, but I think she still holds onto CO, PA, NH, NV and mayyyyyybe North Carolina.
I will not even venture a guess on Florida. That's always a coin flip.