The Trump Candidacy

[CNS]

Dan Carlin had some great stuff in his latest podcast about why people support Trump and it's overlap with Brexit.  He quoted some good stuff that came from Glenn Greenwald, who links some other good analysis in this article.

https://theintercept.com/2016/06/25/brexit-is-only-the-latest-proof-of-the-insularity-and-failure-of-western-establishment-institutions/

Punchline: It's not necessarily xenophobia and racism, or hard line party adherence, even though that probably makes up some of the coalition.  The true drive is a protest vote against the establishment, period, which marries why people are rallying around a Republican candidate who isn't even really a Republican.

If he is correct, things like the FBI email bullshit will drive votes to him by the appearance that politicians get away with whatever they want.  I think it is more complicated than that, though.  I think there may be a lot of low info moderate voters who have been reserved about Hill.  Now that she is clear of the FBI, those who wouldn't look into it before, still won't look into it now, and will vote for her. 

We'll see.

[sonofdaxjones]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR here.

  at me being a birther and a truther.   Just a reminder, the only part of the "Truth" movement I ever bought into was that the intelligence services of a nation-state were involved with the hijackers, an idea that's backed by many experts, and likely affirmed in places that are not being shown to the public.    The FSM is  @ some of you.

[steve dave]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR are here.

oh she would absolutely get her ass whipped by a reasonable non-crazy candidate.

[steve dave]

unfortunately there doesn't appear to be much hope of the right getting one of those through a primary given their extremely high proportion of non-reasonable crazy voters.

[steve dave]

[chum1]

Donald Trump’s private meeting Thursday with Senate Republicans — designed to foster greater party unity ahead of the national convention in Cleveland — grew combative as the presumptive presidential nominee admonished three senators who have been critical of his candidacy and predicted they would lose their reelection bids

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/07/07/trump-meets-with-hill-republicans-as-controversy-over-star-of-david-tweet-continues/

[steve dave]

haha

[sys]

there is a nonzero chance that he just blows the gop to eff and back.  there was a good opinion piece (by a complete hack writer) a few days back about that.  i'd see if i can find it, but liblib can never read the wsj articles i link.

[star seed 7]

at least i click on your links.  i ignore pretty much everyone elses

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR are here.

oh she would absolutely get her ass whipped by a reasonable non-crazy candidate.

What's the Democrats excuse for Hillary? By your logic their are more crazy leftists than rightists, because Hillary can only win by getting more votes than trump.

Unless, of course, you think Hillary is a competent candidate.  . .libtard dave

[bubbles4ksu]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR are here.

oh she would absolutely get her ass whipped by a reasonable non-crazy candidate.

What's the Democrats excuse for Hillary? By your logic their are more crazy leftists than rightists, because Hillary can only win by getting more votes than trump.

Unless, of course, you think Hillary is a competent candidate.  . .libtard dave

dems got a lot of the social stuff they wanted with BO and are disillusioned by his inability to deliver other stuff so they DGAF. the clintons are a machine and they snuffed out everyone else. that's the dem's excuse and it's a shitload better than the pubs'.

[renocat]

Trump vote. Reason 1 - we need someone who can stand up to the behemoth bureaucracy that is full left leaning unsupervised ideologues who are more interested in pushing a political agenda rather than doing what their agency is suppose to do.  Prime example, the VA.

[CNS]

The thought of trump fixing something as large as the VA is hilarious.

Sent from my SM-G900T using Tapatalk

[sonofdaxjones]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR are here.

oh she would absolutely get her ass whipped by a reasonable non-crazy candidate.

What's the Democrats excuse for Hillary? By your logic their are more crazy leftists than rightists, because Hillary can only win by getting more votes than trump.

Unless, of course, you think Hillary is a competent candidate.  . .libtard dave

dems got a lot of the social stuff they wanted with BO and are disillusioned by his inability to deliver other stuff so they DGAF. the clintons are a machine and they snuffed out everyone else. that's the dem's excuse and it's a shitload better than the pubs'.

Oh bullshit, Dems just have a quest for power so they'll go for the most corrupt Neo-con stealth racist Wall Street shill they have available in order to keep that power.   Hillary gives absolutely no shits about minorities and women unless it's to get their vote.   Once elected she's only going to do what the .1% of the 1% want her to do, just like Obama. 

[bubbles4ksu]

 

[star seed 7]

Unpredictable vs predictable

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR are here.

oh she would absolutely get her ass whipped by a reasonable non-crazy candidate.

What's the Democrats excuse for Hillary? By your logic their are more crazy leftists than rightists, because Hillary can only win by getting more votes than trump.

Unless, of course, you think Hillary is a competent candidate.  . .libtard dave

dems got a lot of the social stuff they wanted with BO and are disillusioned by his inability to deliver other stuff so they DGAF. the clintons are a machine and they snuffed out everyone else. that's the dem's excuse and it's a shitload better than the pubs'.

This post is incoherent psycobabble. Please try again

[bubbles4ksu]

i didn't read what you guys were talking about but i explained dem feelings about hillary and her candidacy. still no sense?

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

No

[bubbles4ksu]

anywho, let's get back to talking about how running donny trump isn't completely fracturing the republican party.

[wetwillie]

The Republican Party should die, it is ineffective and outlived its usefulness

[sys]

there was a good opinion piece (by a complete hack writer) a few days back about that.  i'd see if i can find it, but liblib can never read the wsj articles i link.

copy&paste job for liblib.

Before they gather in Cleveland for their convention, it’s not too soon for Republicans to begin thinking about what exactly a Donald Trump defeat might be like.

As with his now-documented habit of charitable promises that seldom materialize, Mr. Trump never intended to endanger a sizable part of his personal wealth to fund a presidential campaign. That means he’ll continue to campaign on the cheap, by saying incendiary things and having them transmitted by the free media. Expect more speeches like the protectionist-cum-conspiracy theory speeches in suburban Pittsburgh on Tuesday and New Hampshire on Thursday, even if such diatribes frighten major donors and mainstream Republicans and make life harder for down-ticket Republican candidates in the fall.

In his mind, Mr. Trump may still envision a populist prairie fire carrying him to the White House. This is not his best plan to win, he may also admit to himself, but the one he’s willing to pay for.

Here resides the problem all along for those hoping for a Trump-to-the-middle move. Such moves are expensive. Base-broadening campaigns require lots of paid TV to reach non-engaged voters and Trump skeptics, pummeling them with reassuring images suggesting that a Trump presidency would be OK.

Mr. Trump not only is unwilling or unable to finance such a campaign. He evidently is unwilling to do what’s necessary to entice GOP donors to finance it on his behalf. This means GOP officeholders seeking re-election can expect a constant headwind of inflammatory Trump statements designed to stimulate the free media coverage that his asset-lite campaign requires. Republican candidates up and down the ballot therefore become unwilling sharers of a high-risk Trump electoral wager, a gamble more likely to end in a Hillary landslide than a Trump White House.

The more intriguing question concerns what happens if Mr. Trump decides he can’t win and no longer is willing to throw good money after bad. Unless they were born on a turnip truck yesterday, campaign vendors will be the first to figure it out. Look for them quickly to cut off services rather than get stiffed in the inevitable Trump campaign bankruptcy filing.

Mr. Trump’s harsher Republican critics are kidding themselves to think Mr. Trump is crazy or unstable and will suffer a breakdown. More likely, he will simply and coldbloodedly toss the ball to the GOP, saying, in effect, “If you want to pay for some events or TV, I’m available. Otherwise I’m done.” The GOP would then have to shoulder the dual burden of propping up a minimally respectable Trump campaign while also distancing its down-ballot candidates from Mr. Trump so they might survive.

And that’s the optimistic scenario. Mr. Trump has learned the value of audacity. He might well decide to cover his retreat and preserve his amour propre with a flurry of lawsuits and conspiracy theories about a “rigged” election.

He’s already begun putting narrative flesh on these bones. He speaks of “crooked Hillary” and increasingly of the Clinton Global Initiative, Bill Clinton’s philanthropy, and what he calls the Clintons’ “politics of personal profit and theft.” In his trade speeches, he portrays the Clintons as members of a nefarious global elite that has enriched itself while foisting impoverishing trade deals on the U.S. middle class.

He perhaps will throw in a few suggestions that foreign governments hold hidden leverage over Hillary because of her hacked, illegal email server. He’ll mention Bill Clinton’s pardon of Marc Rich.

Republicans can also expect to be a target of his accusations. He doesn’t need to be plausible, just tell a story that justifies his own stance that he didn’t lose, the other side cheated, “Washington elites” conspired against him, etc.

If the Trump endgame is destined to go this way, Republicans should hope it does so early, ideally before the convention is even over. To date, Mr. Trump continues to tease top GOPers and conservatives with the idea that he may yet come their way, turn his formidable talents to advancing conservative causes. This merciless exploiting of Republican romantics has begun to seem like something out of “The Blue Angel” or Lucy with the football.

Republicans need a strategy, and lots of money to fund it, to preserve their House and Senate majorities. Do they know it? The thing they should fear most: An autumn dynamic in which Mr. Trump believes the best outcome for him personally is one that does as much damage as possible to the long-run GOP cause.

[MakeItRain]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-swing-state-polls-and-national-polls-basically-say-the-same-thing/

makes sense.  it doesn't much matter if hardcore dems hate trump more than they hated romney or if hardcore pubs hate clinton more than they hated obama.  their votes were already assumed.

the twist in the coming election is that so many dems and dem-leaning mods hate clinton and so many pubs and pub-leaning mods hate trump.

Clinton leading Trump in Kansas is surprising.

I'm not. The Brownback tenure has pushed a significant number of moderate Republicans over the center line.

Trump will win Kansas by 20 points. Brownback easily beat a DINO during the gubernatorial election, remember the polling then? It seems as if polling in Kansas is limited to Johnson, Wyandotte, and Douglas counties.

[MakeItRain]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR are here.

oh she would absolutely get her ass whipped by a reasonable non-crazy candidate.

What's the Democrats excuse for Hillary? By your logic their are more crazy leftists than rightists, because Hillary can only win by getting more votes than trump.

Unless, of course, you think Hillary is a competent candidate.  . .libtard dave

She would beat a legitimate republicans candidate for the same reason she won the Democratic nomination; she has an unstoppable political machine. She has way more money and a much better ground game than she had eight years ago. It is virtually impossible to lose an American election when you have the organization, cash, and name recognition that she has. Jeb! was such a failure because he managed to get his ass kicked with money and name recognition, but even he didn't have anywhere close to the machine that Hil has.

[Rage Against the McKee]

NPR had a great story today that the only reason why Hillary has a chance, and likely a good chance is because Trump will be the nominee.   We're talking NPR are here.

oh she would absolutely get her ass whipped by a reasonable non-crazy candidate.

What's the Democrats excuse for Hillary? By your logic their are more crazy leftists than rightists, because Hillary can only win by getting more votes than trump.

Unless, of course, you think Hillary is a competent candidate.  . .libtard dave

She would beat a legitimate republicans candidate for the same reason she won the Democratic nomination; she has an unstoppable political machine. She has way more money and a much better ground game than she had eight years ago. It is virtually impossible to lose an American election when you have the organization, cash, and name recognition that she has. Jeb! was such a failure because he managed to get his ass kicked with money and name recognition, but even he didn't have anywhere close to the machine that Hil has.

The DNC wouldn't be able to limit her exposure in the general election the way they were able to in the primary.