The Trump Candidacy

[steve dave]

Sanders is less likelier to be the Dem candidate than Trump is to be the Repub.

Trump vs. Clinton (or Biden)

I know, I'm just saying it would be very weird. would actually be the first time a 3rd party candidate could run on a moderate platform and maybe have some success.

[Rage Against the McKee]

a Trump v. Sanders general election would be so lol for the moderates (like sd). what the eff am I supposed to do here? I guess Sanders because he's less likely to have us in a nuclear war his first month in office and probably won't replace a nuclear physicist with sarah palin as the head of the dept of energy. but, he's going to try to reduce my take home by like 50% so that sucks. unless I get universal healthcare for free and don't pay property taxes or something.

Sanders would have to get support from congress to actually implement any of the ideas that make him hard to vote for. The idea of Trump selecting cabinet members, appointing supreme court justices, and interacting with other world leaders is pretty scary.

[Yard Dog]

a Trump v. Sanders general election would be so lol for the moderates (like sd). what the eff am I supposed to do here? I guess Sanders because he's less likely to have us in a nuclear war his first month in office and probably won't replace a nuclear physicist with sarah palin as the head of the dept of energy. but, he's going to try to reduce my take home by like 50% so that sucks. unless I get universal healthcare for free and don't pay property taxes or something.

If Sanders wins I dont think you can every expect not to pay taxes for something.

Is anyone else worried that if he is president for 8 years he will be in his mid eighties? Bernie is the same age as LHC Bill Snyder for heavens sake!

[Yard Dog]

a Trump v. Sanders general election would be so lol for the moderates (like sd). what the eff am I supposed to do here? I guess Sanders because he's less likely to have us in a nuclear war his first month in office and probably won't replace a nuclear physicist with sarah palin as the head of the dept of energy. but, he's going to try to reduce my take home by like 50% so that sucks. unless I get universal healthcare for free and don't pay property taxes or something.

Sanders would have to get support from congress to actually implement any of the ideas that make him hard to vote for. The idea of Trump selecting cabinet members, appointing supreme court justices, and interacting with other world leaders is pretty scary.

So in this scenario we just hope for a lame duck presidency for four years and hope nothing happens abroad that would require military action?

[Rage Against the McKee]

a Trump v. Sanders general election would be so lol for the moderates (like sd). what the eff am I supposed to do here? I guess Sanders because he's less likely to have us in a nuclear war his first month in office and probably won't replace a nuclear physicist with sarah palin as the head of the dept of energy. but, he's going to try to reduce my take home by like 50% so that sucks. unless I get universal healthcare for free and don't pay property taxes or something.

Sanders would have to get support from congress to actually implement any of the ideas that make him hard to vote for. The idea of Trump selecting cabinet members, appointing supreme court justices, and interacting with other world leaders is pretty scary.

So in this scenario we just hope for a lame duck presidency for four years and hope nothing happens abroad that would require military action?

We would still have the largest, best funded military in the world under Sanders, and by a considerable margin. But yeah, I think with any presidency, we should always hope for nothing that rocks the boat too much and no need for military action.

[CNS]

Trump won't be the candidate if that helps everyone.

A poll earlier this week showed that a majority of pubs choose him as either their top one or two.  Also, same radio show I was listening to said that another poll polled who would get pub votes if the field was just trump, carson, or bush.  Trump 44%

[gatoveintisiete]

It's all fun and games 'til Bernie decides he wants to treat credit card points as ordinary income.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Trump won't be the candidate if that helps everyone.

A poll earlier this week showed that a majority of pubs choose him as either their top one or two.  Also, same radio show I was listening to said that another poll polled who would get pub votes if the field was just trump, carson, or bush.  Trump 44%

Yeah, it really explains a lot about why the republican party is where it is today.

[Yard Dog]

Trump won't be the candidate if that helps everyone.

A poll earlier this week showed that a majority of pubs choose him as either their top one or two.  Also, same radio show I was listening to said that another poll polled who would get pub votes if the field was just trump, carson, or bush.  Trump 44%

Am I the only one who mistrust polls? How many people do they poll? I have heard generally these polls are about 1000 people. How varied are the sources? Depending on how they collect their information, if someone isn't answering their phone or taking an online survey their opinion is lost. It seems like it is really easy to take a poll with the right people to give yourself the results you want.

[MakeItRain]

Trump won't be the candidate if that helps everyone.

Have you been following the polls? I don't mean who is leading in Iowa, but the trends, the supposed issues. He is somehow making gains with women, people are viewing him as more trustworthy with each passing day; it's crazy. Ben Carson emerging also helps him because frankly Carson is Trump without the insults. One likely two of the traditional canidates need to emerge to make this uncomfortable for Trump and Carson. It's even starting to look like that Trump may be scandal proof so if the establishment is holding on to some bombshell it better be a big one because his supporters don't seem to care.

So it is your prediction that trump wins the nomination?

I really don't know I am stunned that we are at this point, he does something weekly that would have killed anyone else's campaign in either party. You cannot ignore the polls and trends at this point.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Trump won't be the candidate if that helps everyone.

A poll earlier this week showed that a majority of pubs choose him as either their top one or two.  Also, same radio show I was listening to said that another poll polled who would get pub votes if the field was just trump, carson, or bush.  Trump 44%

Am I the only one who mistrust polls? How many people do they poll? I have heard generally these polls are about 1000 people. How varied are the sources? Depending on how they collect their information, if someone isn't answering their phone or taking an online survey their opinion is lost. It seems like it is really easy to take a poll with the right people to give yourself the results you want.

If you do that, your results won't be accurate, and people will stop hiring you to conduct polls.

[Yard Dog]

Trump won't be the candidate if that helps everyone.

A poll earlier this week showed that a majority of pubs choose him as either their top one or two.  Also, same radio show I was listening to said that another poll polled who would get pub votes if the field was just trump, carson, or bush.  Trump 44%

Am I the only one who mistrust polls? How many people do they poll? I have heard generally these polls are about 1000 people. How varied are the sources? Depending on how they collect their information, if someone isn't answering their phone or taking an online survey their opinion is lost. It seems like it is really easy to take a poll with the right people to give yourself the results you want.

If you do that, your results won't be accurate, and people will stop hiring you to conduct polls.

Unless the people hiring you to conduct polls really like the results you are getting.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Trump won't be the candidate if that helps everyone.

A poll earlier this week showed that a majority of pubs choose him as either their top one or two.  Also, same radio show I was listening to said that another poll polled who would get pub votes if the field was just trump, carson, or bush.  Trump 44%

Am I the only one who mistrust polls? How many people do they poll? I have heard generally these polls are about 1000 people. How varied are the sources? Depending on how they collect their information, if someone isn't answering their phone or taking an online survey their opinion is lost. It seems like it is really easy to take a poll with the right people to give yourself the results you want.

If you do that, your results won't be accurate, and people will stop hiring you to conduct polls.

Unless the people hiring you to conduct polls really like the results you are getting.

Why would they like inaccurate results? That makes it harder for them to adjust and win elections.

[MakeItRain]

Man yard dog never disappoints. Do you read anything beyond tweets and Facebook posts? Take a half an hour or so and check this out.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

[Yard Dog]

Man yard dog never disappoints. Do you read anything beyond tweets and Facebook posts? Take a half an hour or so and check this out.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

I got all of that information and speculation about polls by listening to NPR. So, yes, I do "read stuff beyond tweets and facebook posts"

For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and over is interviewed over five or six days. The polls are conducted at the Polling Institute on West Woods Road, close to the Mount Carmel and York Hill Campuses.

^ seems super accurate

[Rage Against the McKee]

A sample size of 1000 should yield accurate results with a 95% confidence level and a confidence interval of about +/- 3%.

[wetwillie]

This happens every cycle.  Jeb will win. 

[Yard Dog]

A sample size of 1000 should yield accurate results with a 95% confidence level and a confidence interval of about +/- 3%.

Just did a quick google search and there are 1.2 million registered voters in Iowa. But I am sure asking 1000 of them who they would vote for is super accurate.

[star seed 7]

A republican that doesn't believe in science, interesting.

Next he's going to tie polls to christian persecution

[Yard Dog]

A republican that doesn't believe in science, interesting.

Next he's going to tie polls to christian persecution

Which republican ITT doesn't believe in science? I do. The NPR segment I was referencing talked about the difficulty to actually poll people in their entire demographic range.

[Rage Against the McKee]

A sample size of 1000 should yield accurate results with a 95% confidence level and a confidence interval of about +/- 3%.

Just did a quick google search and there are 1.2 million registered voters in Iowa. But I am sure asking 1000 of them who they would vote for is super accurate.

It is accurate enough to predict results to with a margin of error of 3%, 95% of the time.

[Institutional Control]

A sample size of 1000 should yield accurate results with a 95% confidence level and a confidence interval of about +/- 3%.

Just did a quick google search and there are 1.2 million registered voters in Iowa. But I am sure asking 1000 of them who they would vote for is super accurate.

It is accurate enough to predict results to with a margin of error of 3%, 95% of the time.

And 60% of the time it works every time.

[MakeItRain]

Man yard dog never disappoints. Do you read anything beyond tweets and Facebook posts? Take a half an hour or so and check this out.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

I got all of that information and speculation about polls by listening to NPR. So, yes, I do " read stuff beyond tweets and facebook posts"

Never change yard dog  also no one believes that you listen to NPR but find all of those batshit crazy facebook posts "interesting."

[Yard Dog]

Man yard dog never disappoints. Do you read anything beyond tweets and Facebook posts? Take a half an hour or so and check this out.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/

I got all of that information and speculation about polls by listening to NPR. So, yes, I do " read stuff beyond tweets and facebook posts"

Never change yard dog  also no one believes that you listen to NPR but find all of those batshit crazy facebook posts "interesting."

I realize listening to NPR is not reading. Any halfway intelligent individual would understand I was making the statement that I am not getting my news from facebook and Twitter like you suggest.

So you are saying that because of your opinion on politics it is impossible that I listen to NPR? I have a lengthy commute everyday and NPR's All Things Considered never disappoints. I am not lying that I heard them discuss polling on NPR.

Dissenting opinions are also not automatically "bigoted" or "batshit crazy". Those talking points only make the person using them seem ignorant and uneducated. It is important as well rounded individuals to understand what all sides of an issue are, not just saying "lalala" with your fingers in your ears. 

[steve dave]

Yard Dog seems to define the conservative base to me.