Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Trim]

This thread is insufferable. Can we just get this Armageddon under way?

It's a real bitch to print.

[wabash909]

Pan, that all makes sense when you lay it out on the table like that. Assuming we add FSU sometime in the next 1-3 years and then wait on ND, isn't there a chance that ND is 5 years more mediocre by 2017? Seems to me that they're becoming less and less of a player in all this as time goes on because they're so plain. Am I missing the boat on all this?

Notre Dame may have lost a little luster, but it will always be the crown jewel of college football.

crap, the Big 10 has tried for decades to entice them.  If the Big XII could pull this off, it would be THE defining moment in our history and a landscape shifting moment in college sports.

Let's not underestimate it.

[Panjandrum]

Pan, that all makes sense when you lay it out on the table like that. Assuming we add FSU sometime in the next 1-3 years and then wait on ND, isn't there a chance that ND is 5 years more mediocre by 2017? Seems to me that they're becoming less and less of a player in all this as time goes on because they're so plain. Am I missing the boat on all this?

Notre Dame may have lost a little luster, but it will always be the crown jewel of college football.

crap, the Big 10 has tried for decades to entice them.  If the Big XII could pull this off, it would be THE defining moment in our history and a landscape shifting moment in college sports.

Let's not underestimate it.

This is why we're going to move slowly.

The Big Ten, Pac-12, and ACC all hurt their chances, immeasurably, by signing their Tier 3 rights over to the conference.  I don't care how good of a "fit" Notre Dame would be in the ACC; it is extremely unlikely they'd sign up for a league where their cut is the same as Wake Forest's.

Let's just say that the Big 12 adds ND and FSU, gets a CCG back, and the overall payout for Tier 1 and Tier 2 is around $24 million per team (which is pretty realistic given that mix).  That's $7 million more per year than what the ACC will give them for all three Tiers.  If ND can start their own network, similar to Texas, and make around what Texas makes, they'd make nearly $40 million per year in TV revenue alone.  Factor in bowl money, playoff money, NCAA basketball tournament money, and other various conference payouts, and the fact that ND won't have to worry so much about losing an arm and a leg by going to a bowl game (since the Big 12 helps with those costs).

I understand that Notre Dame values independence over all.  It's a part of their identity.  But that identity and desire for independence is rooted from a place where Notre Dame wants and needs to feel "special". Well, the most "special" program in college football right now is Texas, and there's only one place where you can be like Texas.  As we move forward, there's only one place that lets you have that amount of freedom, while having a seat at the big kids table, and that is the Big 12.

People who look at things that don't matter, like academics and cultural fit, don't see Notre Dame being here.  People who realize what drives decision making in college football know that the Big 12 is the perfect fit for Notre Dame.

And given that the people in charge of this conference are incredibly savvy people at this point (Dodds, Neinas, Bowlsby, Luck, the Animal, Del Conte, etc.), they aren't going to screw this up.  This is the rainmaker deal you get one shot at.  They are going to make sure this is done right.

[_33]

The only problem I can see with all this is that if more good teams join the big 12 it will be harder for KSU to win a ton of games.  And I enjoy winning tons of games.

[Panjandrum]

The only problem I can see with all this is that if more good teams join the big 12 it will be harder for KSU to win a ton of games.  And I enjoy winning tons of games.

The relative strength of the conference is good for everyone.

I mean, look at Auburn.  Truthfully, they're a pretty middle of the road SEC program.  One good year where they got away with paying a great QB, and they have a national title that no one's going to take away.

Kids will go play at Mississippi or Mississippi State (or Missouri for that matter) because they want to play in the SEC.  If the Big 12 raises their game, they may have that kind of swag, too.

Kids from Nebraska or Colorado may want to go to Kansas State to "Play in the Big 12".  Maybe not many, but you never know.

[wabash909]

Panj, what makes you think this follows a two year time line with FSU like A&M?

Unless we are forced to wait, I think if the Big XII is in a position to make the play we make the play now.  We attack the ACC swiftly and aggressively while they are in a position of weakness.  The sooner we can clearly establish ourselves as one of the four superpower conferences the better, IMO.

[_33]

We attack the ACC swiftly and aggressively while they are in a position of weakness.

My goodness.   

[wabash909]

We attack the ACC swiftly and aggressively while they are in a position of weakness.

My goodness.   

I mean, really AGRESSIVELY! 

[felix rex]

I hated ten until we played the season. Then I loved it. So I'll probably like whatever we do in the future, as long as we win 10 games and beat Texas.

[Panjandrum]

Panj, what makes you think this follows a two year time line with FSU like A&M?

Unless we are forced to wait, I think if the Big XII is in a position to make the play we make the play now.  We attack the ACC swiftly and aggressively while they are in a position of weakness.  The sooner we can clearly establish ourselves as one of the four superpower conferences the better, IMO.

The SEC game did all of the establishing.  A $20 million per year payout sans CCG establishes that.  Historical trends in terms of who would qualify for the playoff establish that.

The problem is that FSU would have to get everything together by August 15th, and I don't think they're on track to do that.  There seems to be genuine infighting.  Their president really doesn't want to go.  The AD is stepping down in the next year or so.  They have a new chair of the BOT. 

Bowlsby hasn't even started yet, and he won't until after the Olympics.  We don't know what the details of the playoff will look like for a few weeks.  That's a rush decision when everyone at FSU isn't on the same page yet.

It's like A&M.  You let it fester for a year.  All it will take is one screw job in a football game and there will be torches and pitchforks.  By this time next year, they'll be full steam ahead.

[CyberToothCat]

Panj, what makes you think this follows a two year time line with FSU like A&M?

Unless we are forced to wait, I think if the Big XII is in a position to make the play we make the play now.  We attack the ACC swiftly and aggressively while they are in a position of weakness.  The sooner we can clearly establish ourselves as one of the four superpower conferences the better, IMO.

The SEC game did all of the establishing.  A $20 million per year payout sans CCG establishes that.  Historical trends in terms of who would qualify for the playoff establish that.

The problem is that FSU would have to get everything together by August 15th, and I don't think they're on track to do that.  There seems to be genuine infighting.  Their president really doesn't want to go.  The AD is stepping down in the next year or so.  They have a new chair of the BOT. 

Bowlsby hasn't even started yet, and he won't until after the Olympics.  We don't know what the details of the playoff will look like for a few weeks.  That's a rush decision when everyone at FSU isn't on the same page yet.

It's like A&M.  You let it fester for a year.  All it will take is one screw job in a football game and there will be torches and pitchforks.  By this time next year, they'll be full steam ahead.

If we wait, do we run the risk of FSU realizing (remembering?) that they can be successful in football in that conference?  They used to be incredibly good, and with a new coach and new energy they seem to be on the way back to that level.  They're not there yet, but they could be in a year or two.  If we drag our feet and don't get around to adding FSU for a year or two, they may realize they don't need to be in the Big 12 to have access to the BCS/Playoffs.

[Panjandrum]

Panj, what makes you think this follows a two year time line with FSU like A&M?

Unless we are forced to wait, I think if the Big XII is in a position to make the play we make the play now.  We attack the ACC swiftly and aggressively while they are in a position of weakness.  The sooner we can clearly establish ourselves as one of the four superpower conferences the better, IMO.

The SEC game did all of the establishing.  A $20 million per year payout sans CCG establishes that.  Historical trends in terms of who would qualify for the playoff establish that.

The problem is that FSU would have to get everything together by August 15th, and I don't think they're on track to do that.  There seems to be genuine infighting.  Their president really doesn't want to go.  The AD is stepping down in the next year or so.  They have a new chair of the BOT. 

Bowlsby hasn't even started yet, and he won't until after the Olympics.  We don't know what the details of the playoff will look like for a few weeks.  That's a rush decision when everyone at FSU isn't on the same page yet.

It's like A&M.  You let it fester for a year.  All it will take is one screw job in a football game and there will be torches and pitchforks.  By this time next year, they'll be full steam ahead.

If we wait, do we run the risk of FSU realizing (remembering?) that they can be successful in football in that conference?  They used to be incredibly good, and with a new coach and new energy they seem to be on the way back to that level.  They're not there yet, but they could be in a year or two.  If we drag our feet and don't get around to adding FSU for a year or two, they may realize they don't need to be in the Big 12 to have access to the BCS/Playoffs.

Extend the timeline out five to ten years.  Go beyond that.  Imagine the tens of millions (and more) of dollars that schools like Kansas State and Iowa State will make simply by being a member of this conference that FSU won't get.

FSU can be the best they can be in the ACC.  But when the playoff consists of four teams, and RPI (or some form of it) will be a component, don't you think a 11-1 SEC team or the conference champ from the Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, or Pac-12 will make it over them?

You can't say, "Oh, well if FSU starts tearing up ACC competition, they'll be just fine."  VT has been tearing up the ACC for years now, feasting on AQ bids, but if you went with a conference champ model or a top 4 model, they only would have qualified one time in the past ten years - the year they lost to KU in the Orange Bowl.

There is a reason that if you went back ten years using the new models that the ACC has less teams qualify than the Big East, Mountain West, and WAC.  It's because the bottom half of that conference is atrocious and they could care less.  Grabbing Pitt and Syracuse only made it worse, and on top of that, it brings with it all of the problems of fourteen teams (see the SEC).

If you're serious about football, and you're in the ACC, you're going to want out.  Florida State will want out, regardless of how good they get.  Because more often than not, someone else's good team is going to knock them out of the playoffs.

[Pete]

The Dude of WV ?@theDudeofWV

Today's post was my last post on expansion. It will happen by July 31st or it wont happen. Nothing more I can add.

NOW, WE WAIT! 

[MadCat]

The Dude of WV ?@theDudeofWV
It will happen by July 31st or it wont happen. Nothing more I can add.

If only the guy that always predicted the end of the world could commit to this kind of statement.

[ew2x4]

That guy doesn't know crap.

[CNS]

That guy doesn't know crap.

he has been getting a lot of this on twitter and I assume this is why he is blowing off twitter like he is.  He should take an example from Fitz and just keep doing what he does and let the haters hate.  I mean, it's a legit strategy if you are talking about reporting stuff as opposed to when you are twitter-banging under aged girls.

[steve dave]

Everyone got really envious of Chip Brown when he was all over conference armageddon act 1 and now everyone's rushing to try to be Chip.  Chip was/is just a mouth piece for one TX AD member and most of the crap he was reporting was ultimately false.  But, everyone knows who he is now.  Greg Swaim has now predicted every possible outcome to conference realignment.  When the dust settles he will absolutely remind everyone that he called it at some point correctly. 

[Trim]

When the dust settles he will absolutely remind everyone that he called it at some point correctly. 

And to thunder up.

[wabash909]

The Dude of WV ?@theDudeofWV

Today's post was my last post on expansion. It will happen by July 31st or it wont happen. Nothing more I can add.

NOW, WE WAIT! 

Interesting that he's thrown the "it won't happen" possibility in there, considering his stance throughout.

[Pete]

The Dude of WV ?@theDudeofWV

Today's post was my last post on expansion. It will happen by July 31st or it wont happen. Nothing more I can add.

NOW, WE WAIT! 

Interesting that he's thrown the "it won't happen" possibility in there, considering his stance throughout.

Ya, he's certainly back tracked from his prior statements where all but bet his life on it.

I think Pan has the right of it, in that they are certainly way past merely kicking tires with FSU and perhaps Clemson....but that the timeline may be quite a bit longer than what some speculated.

[CNS]

The Dude of WV ?@theDudeofWV

Today's post was my last post on expansion. It will happen by July 31st or it wont happen. Nothing more I can add.

NOW, WE WAIT! 

Interesting that he's thrown the "it won't happen" possibility in there, considering his stance throughout.

Here's the thing about the new media and twitter.  I rough ridin' love it.  I would rather this guy and chip brown do what they have done via twitter and end up wrong or partially wrong than to have nothing for months.  It's not like these guys are reporting on the economy or the Arab Spring movements.  Who cares about ultimate accuracy.  The drama unfolding daily on twitter is as fun as the sports we will ultimately be playing against the correctly guessed new conf members.

DJamer Wally needs to figure this out.  He isn't Dan Rather.  He's a sports guy.  Let us have fun with the process as well as the outcome.

[steve dave]

DJamer Wally Wallerson is wrong more than Swaim

[CNS]

DJamer Wally Wallerson is wrong more than Swaim

If he made it entertaining, rather than condescending, people would care about that less.

[wabash909]

The Dude of WV ?@theDudeofWV

Today's post was my last post on expansion. It will happen by July 31st or it wont happen. Nothing more I can add.

NOW, WE WAIT! 

Interesting that he's thrown the "it won't happen" possibility in there, considering his stance throughout.

Ya, he's certainly back tracked from his prior statements where all but bet his life on it.

I think Pan has the right of it, in that they are certainly way past merely kicking tires with FSU and perhaps Clemson....but that the timeline may be quite a bit longer than what some speculated.

The dude is in pretty deep.  He might as well stick to his guns and go down in a blaze with this bitch.

[Panjandrum]

The Dude of WV ?@theDudeofWV

Today's post was my last post on expansion. It will happen by July 31st or it wont happen. Nothing more I can add.

NOW, WE WAIT! 

Interesting that he's thrown the "it won't happen" possibility in there, considering his stance throughout.

Ya, he's certainly back tracked from his prior statements where all but bet his life on it.

I think Pan has the right of it, in that they are certainly way past merely kicking tires with FSU and perhaps Clemson....but that the timeline may be quite a bit longer than what some speculated.

The dude is in pretty deep.  He might as well stick to his guns and go down in a blaze with this bitch.

I don't think any of these guys were really wrong in thinking FSU and Clemson would join.  They probably were pretty far along with their reps.  But the playoff thing happened and now we have Bowlsby, and I think that Notre Dame is more realistic than they were four or five months ago.

If you have a 20% chance of landing ND and FSU and sticking at twelve, you'll do whatever you can to make that happen.  No need to rush.

Also, adding FSU and sticking at eleven for a couple of years is perfect because it allows you to add ND as a partial during the transitional period before they join as an all sports member.

So, FSU in 2014 with ND as partial, and ND as full in 2016.

Tidy.  You only take one from the ACC, they take one from the Big East, and the Big East continues to raid C-USA/MWC.  It's all civil-like.  Path of least resistance.