Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[CyberToothCat]

This conference is safe for the next 6-10 years for sure.  Probably more because Texas has the LHN.

However, for there to be long term stability and prosperity, we need a network.  There's too much money being left on the table for it not to happen.

We CAN'T form a network.

The Big 12's contract with ABC is that we provide them with 18 football games per year.  The new contract we signed with Fox Sports this past spring says we have to provide them with at least 40 football games per year.  That means we have to give our TV partners a total of 58 football games every year.

With 10 schools, that means we play 9 conference games and 3 non-con games.  That comes to 45 total conf games and 30 total non-con games, or a total inventory of 75 games.  You have to assume that most schools will play a road non-con game every year, so subtract 7 from that total.  Now our total inventory is 68 games (75-7=68).

Each school retains the rights to 1 home non-con game per year.  This year, K-State's third tier game was the one vs Eastern Kentucky.  Given the option, most schools would happily give those third tier games to the conference network.  UT will obviously keep their game so they can put it on the LHN.  The other 9 schools will likely let the "Big 12 Network" broadcast those third tier games.  Subtract those 9 third-tier games from our total inventory.  We now have a total inventory of 59 games (68-9=59).

We are contractually obligated to provide 58 games to our TV partners (ESPN and FOX), so that just leaves us with 1 additional game.  Our conference network will have 9 third-tier games like KSU vs EKU, plus one additional game that we don't have to give to ESPN/FOX.  10 total games is simply not enough to support a conference network.  That's not even enough for one game per weekend.

In order to sign the huge $1.13 billion contract with Fox in April, we had to sell virtually ALL of our football inventory.  We don't have enough leftover to support our own network.  And without the Longhorns in our network, we probably wouldn't have enough viewers either.  With only 10 teams, and with the contracts we signed with ESPN/FOX, we simply cannot support a conference network.

The options are either:
a) Expand to 12 so that we can enough enough inventory to support a conf network
b) Do not form a conference network

Hopefully DeLoss is telling the truth when he says he's not completely opposed to expanding to 12.

12-teams playing 8 conf games and 4 non-con games:

48 conferece games
48 non-con games
1 championship game
97 total inventory
12 LESS: road non-con games
85 remaining inventory
1 LESS: third-tier game UT retains for LHN
84 remaining inventory
58 LESS: games we sold to ESPN/FOX
26 remaining inventory

Over the course of a 13-week regular season, 26 games for the conference network would be 2 games per week.  And some of those would be conference games.  That IS enough inventory to support a network.  It doesn't solve the problem of viewers, but hopefully the two teams we add can bring some additional viewers to our territory?

[Panjandrum]

Before you jump all over a conference network, a question that has to be answered is, what portion of the individual schools Tier III rights get turned over to the conference . . . I assume it's just the TV portion.     The next question is, what % of the individual schools total Tier III take is garnered from the TV portion?    What makes more money in the Tier III deal, TV or Radio??

In our case, it would be TV.  Digital rights and radio rights would need to be retained by the individual schools.  Texas obviously wouldn't be a part of this deal (i.e. coaches shows, home games, etc.)

However, if the Big 12 were to invite two new teams, that increases football and basketball inventory.  Also, I think you can strike up a deal with Fox that would allow you to dump a couple of games each week that could be moved to a conference network platform that they administer.  To placate Fox for the lost inventory on the Tier 2 deal, you just roll a conference title game onto the Fox platform for no additional monetary compensation.

I envision that a new Tier 1 deal would be a minimum of 20 games on ESPN/ABC (similar to what we have now), 26-28 games on FSN and FX, and 26-30 games on a Big 12 Network.  Also, you move a lot of non-con basketball and those Saturday Phillips 66 games onto the Big 12 Network and you have plenty of live inventory to last the academic year.  Given that we'll probably add at least two more teams in the Eastern time zone, there's a significant chance we can double up live games on the network during the weeknight with WVU/Louisville/Rutgers (or Cincy) games starting at 6 PM Central with existing Big 12 teams starting at 8 PM.  This also doesn't include the live women's basketball and volleyball games, baseball games, etc.

Tier 3 OU, OSU, WVU, etc. football games will bring viewers and money.  KU, Louisville, WVU basketball games will bring money.  Texas road games are fair game on the Big 12 Network, so they'll get exposure on live events.  Only Texas home games are shown on LHN.  All the Big 12 Network will lack will be BS coaches shows that no one gives a damn about.

There's plenty of inventory to start a Big 12 Network and we already have the groundwork with the stuff they've done on FSN and via the syndicated TV shows for basketball.  It's completely doable.  If we expand to 14 with the additions of Cincy and UConn, there's an immense amount of opportunity for content all over the place.  You could potentially have seven televised football games each week, and the basketball options would be amazing.  You could even entertain the option of adding non-football members for a 16 team conference in basketball and other non-revenue sports (i.e. Notre Dame).

Not all of it may work, but there's potential there.

[Panjandrum]

This conference is safe for the next 6-10 years for sure.  Probably more because Texas has the LHN.

However, for there to be long term stability and prosperity, we need a network.  There's too much money being left on the table for it not to happen.

We CAN'T form a network.

The Big 12's contract with ABC is that we provide them with 18 football games per year.  The new contract we signed with Fox Sports this past spring says we have to provide them with at least 40 football games per year.  That means we have to give our TV partners a total of 58 football games every year.

With 10 schools, that means we play 9 conference games and 3 non-con games.  That comes to 45 total conf games and 30 total non-con games, or a total inventory of 75 games.  You have to assume that most schools will play a road non-con game every year, so subtract 7 from that total.  Now our total inventory is 68 games (75-7=68).

Each school retains the rights to 1 home non-con game per year.  This year, K-State's third tier game was the one vs Eastern Kentucky.  Given the option, most schools would happily give those third tier games to the conference network.  UT will obviously keep their game so they can put it on the LHN.  The other 9 schools will likely let the "Big 12 Network" broadcast those third tier games.  Subtract those 9 third-tier games from our total inventory.  We now have a total inventory of 59 games (68-9=59).

We are contractually obligated to provide 58 games to our TV partners (ESPN and FOX), so that just leaves us with 1 additional game.  Our conference network will have 9 third-tier games like KSU vs EKU, plus one additional game that we don't have to give to ESPN/FOX.  10 total games is simply not enough to support a conference network.  That's not even enough for one game per weekend.

In order to sign the huge $1.13 billion contract with Fox in April, we had to sell virtually ALL of our football inventory.  We don't have enough leftover to support our own network.  And without the Longhorns in our network, we probably wouldn't have enough viewers either.  With only 10 teams, and with the contracts we signed with ESPN/FOX, we simply cannot support a conference network.

The options are either:
a) Expand to 12 so that we can enough enough inventory to support a conf network
b) Do not form a conference network

Hopefully DeLoss is telling the truth when he says he's not completely opposed to expanding to 12.

12-teams playing 8 conf games and 4 non-con games:

48 conferece games
48 non-con games
1 championship game
97 total inventory
12 LESS: road non-con games
85 remaining inventory
1 LESS: third-tier game UT retains for LHN
84 remaining inventory
58 LESS: games we sold to ESPN/FOX
26 remaining inventory

Over the course of a 13-week regular season, 26 games for the conference network would be 2 games per week.  And some of those would be conference games.  That IS enough inventory to support a network.  It doesn't solve the problem of viewers, but hopefully the two teams we add can bring some additional viewers to our territory?

I've done that math, and you're right.  Ten won't work.  You must have a minimum of 12.  I also believe you need to have a nine game conference schedule no matter how many teams you have.

Honestly, 12 can work.  14 would be better for a network.  Especially if you expand all through the Ohio Valley (Louisville, Cincy, WVU) and flank NYC with Rutgers and UConn.

[sonofdaxjones]

K-State's total Tier III media deal is currently worth about $3.5 to $4 million a year.

What are you including in that?

The Learfield Deal.   Which covers the entirety of K-State's Tier III Multi-Media rights.

[Panjandrum]

K-State's total Tier III media deal is currently worth about $3.5 to $4 million a year.

What are you including in that?

The Learfield Deal.   Which covers the entirety of K-State's Tier III Multi-Media rights.

The Big Ten is gobbling up all of the Tier 3 digital rights to start a digital platform.  I believe eleven of the twelve schools are currently signed off on it.

I like schools controlling that themselves.  It gives them flexibility to better cater to their own markets.

[hawginar]

709 pages discussing your role in the Big whatever ??

Let me shed some light on it, U WILL DO WHAT BEVO TELLS YOU.

Now get back to doing what you do best 

[Katpappy]

709 pages discussing your role in the Big whatever ??

Let me shed some light on it, U WILL DO WHAT BEVO TELLS YOU.

Now get back to doing what you do best 

Go play with your pig; he's probably lonely. 

[jtksu]

Guess we should feel like that Bevo doesn't "tell" us to lose games againt them.

[Panjandrum]

709 pages discussing your role in the Big whatever ??

Let me shed some light on it, U WILL DO WHAT BEVO TELLS YOU.

Now get back to doing what you do best 

We beat Bevo over the head and take his money.

KSU owns Texas.  This is common Big 12 knowledge.

[bradleigh]

I was hoping we could keep this thread hidden for a while.

[Paul Moscow]

I was hoping we could keep this thread hidden for a while.

Yeah we should password protect.

[Emo EMAW]

I was hoping we could keep this thread hidden for a while.

Yeah we should password protect.

Just make the password a simple math problem or something.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

We all need to hope the LHN is a big success for Texas. If the LHN goes down, there's nothing keeping Texas in the Big12. 

Because the missing ingredient to more LHN viewership is Pac-12 opponents?

No, because dropping the LHN allows them entrance to any other conference of their choice.

[highway61]

Thanks for the analysis on the network fellas, I appreciate all the work you put into that.  I remember it came out last summer that there had been some kind of talk about a big 12/pac 10 combined network before they tried to raid us.  Would something like that be more attractive to cable providers?  Maybe the ACC to get us little more into the east coast market?  Or the Big East would get us into all 4 time zones?

[Rams]

We all need to hope the LHN is a big success for Texas. If the LHN goes down, there's nothing keeping Texas in the Big12. 

Because the missing ingredient to more LHN viewership is Pac-12 opponents?

No, because dropping the LHN allows them entrance to any other conference of their choice.

And if they don't have the LHN what motivation do they have to leave an otherwise stable and competitive conference where they are the big dogs?  From what I  can tell, everyone left (or wanted to leave) because Texas was throwing around their weight and doing things like starting LHN.  If there's no LHN, why would they go to another conference where they don't have as much weight to throw around?

[Katpappy]

Bump.  Can't let this thread die. 

[MadCat]

Mu christens the soil of sec country with their bowl trophy.

[bws]

http://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/texas-best-served-by-remaining-in-big-12-2058838.html

Some interesting stuff in there regarding the past years expansion especially this bit about future TV negotiations. Looks like we may not be waiting til 2015

Texas will make between $19 million and $20 million from Big 12 revenue distribution this year, and ABC-ESPN has informed the league it'd like to move up their negotiations. "They want to talk early," Dodds said.

[Panjandrum]

http://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/texas-best-served-by-remaining-in-big-12-2058838.html

Some interesting stuff in there regarding the past years expansion especially this bit about future TV negotiations. Looks like we may not be waiting til 2015

Texas will make between $19 million and $20 million from Big 12 revenue distribution this year, and ABC-ESPN has informed the league it'd like to move up their negotiations. "They want to talk early," Dodds said.

Well, they probably want to get more conferences back to the table and negotiate longer term deals before these deals continue to skyrocket.

[Rage Against the McKee]

http://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/texas-best-served-by-remaining-in-big-12-2058838.html

Some interesting stuff in there regarding the past years expansion especially this bit about future TV negotiations. Looks like we may not be waiting til 2015

Texas will make between $19 million and $20 million from Big 12 revenue distribution this year, and ABC-ESPN has informed the league it'd like to move up their negotiations. "They want to talk early," Dodds said.

Well, they probably want to get more conferences back to the table and negotiate longer term deals before these deals continue to skyrocket.

I'm not sure if we want to negotiate right now. It might be better to wait a couple more years.

[Panjandrum]

http://www.statesman.com/sports/longhorns/texas-best-served-by-remaining-in-big-12-2058838.html

Some interesting stuff in there regarding the past years expansion especially this bit about future TV negotiations. Looks like we may not be waiting til 2015

Texas will make between $19 million and $20 million from Big 12 revenue distribution this year, and ABC-ESPN has informed the league it'd like to move up their negotiations. "They want to talk early," Dodds said.

Well, they probably want to get more conferences back to the table and negotiate longer term deals before these deals continue to skyrocket.

I'm not sure if we want to negotiate right now. It might be better to wait a couple more years.

Agreed.  However, ESPN may be 'steering' us into what teams they want us to take like they did with the ACC.

I mean, really, Larry Scott is right.  Consolidation is the best business model.  ESPN, currently, has four platforms to distribute Tier 1 games (ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU), and they want to continue the monopoly on that.  I'm sure they'd love nothing more than to kill the abomination that is the new Big East before they actually have to consider paying them money for something other than basketball.

I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if we end up taking Cincy, Rutgers, UConn, and Louisville.  At all.  That pretty much gives a lifeboat to the remaining "true" Big East schools (sans USF), and it gives ESPN five conferences to work with instead of six.

[michigancat]

The Pac12/Big 10 thing is going to put pressure on ND to join the Big 10.

[Skipper44]

The Pac12/Big 10 thing is going to put pressure on ND to join the Big 10.

due to Pac schools not scheduling ND? 

[michigancat]

The Pac12/Big 10 thing is going to put pressure on ND to join the Big 10.

due to Pac schools not scheduling ND? 

And Big 10 schools. They took an OOC game from 5 of ND's "rivals" off the table all at once.

[MadCat]

Big 10 and Pac 12 are going to take their Rose Bowl and insane amounts of money and live happily ever after before too long.

Meanwhile, here on the other side of the tracks we'll be fending off the SEC with our own dicks.