Here's the bottom line: we're gonna be fine (meaning in the Big 12 w/Texas) unless one of two things happen. We should start worrying only if ESPN tears up Texas' TV deal or if the Big 10, SEC, and PAC 10 all go to 16 and start making noise about re-doing the BCS.
Why the hell would Texas want to join the Big 10, SEC, or PAC 10 at this point? They've got a sweet new TV deal, they get to call the shots in their conference more and more with every Nebraska and aTm that leaves, and they get equal access to the BCS as Florida, Michigan, and USC get...only Texas' conference schedule will be significantly easier. They're the clear-cut star of their conference and the Hegemon of the Plains, while those suckers in the SEC, Big 10, and PAC 10 are beating each other up on the gridiron and on the recruiting trail.
OU has made it clear that they prefer to be with Texas. Doubtful that any conference is going to go after any other Big 12 school independently...Mizzou would be the next most likely, I suppose. Everyone else may have issues with Texas, but they still recognize the situation for what it is and we're running out of schools that really are attractive to other conferences on their own.
So, the only way this conference faces a serious existential threat is if something happens that makes it a bad deal for Texas, i.e., they lose their sweet TV deal or are threatened with decreased access to the BCS.
