Author Topic: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....  (Read 4067425 times)

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Offline wetwillie

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33775 on: July 15, 2022, 09:45:48 AM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO
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Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33776 on: July 15, 2022, 09:57:43 AM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

Offline Shooter Jones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33777 on: July 15, 2022, 10:14:26 AM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

Yup. The PAC deal is already projected to be $15-20 mill behind the B12 in 2 years as is. If the B12 gets the 4 corners, that gap is much larger.

Offline Hullabaloo

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33778 on: July 15, 2022, 10:21:42 AM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

Yup. The PAC deal is already projected to be $15-20 mill behind the B12 in 2 years as is. If the B12 gets the 4 corners, that gap is much larger.

If the 4 corners schools jump; Washington & Oregon won't have a choice as they'll be down to a 6 team conference.  I'm sure UW and UO are telling them everything's fine and they're committed, but I don't see how the 4 corners can trust them.

As for the 4 corners schools, I'd be OK skipping over Utah (since we already have BYU) and adding a California school instead to tap that market.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33779 on: July 15, 2022, 10:24:26 AM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

If they convince the four corners to stick it out with them as the current conference exists I don’t think that’s really all that accurate.  Maybe I’ve missed what the expected new Big 12 media deal projections look like though.  I was thinking the analysis showed we were going to take a massive haircut in per team distribution when OUT depart.
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Offline Shooter Jones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33780 on: July 15, 2022, 10:27:32 AM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

If they convince the four corners to stick it out with them as the current conference exists I don’t think that’s really all that accurate.  Maybe I’ve missed what the expected new Big 12 media deal projections look like though.  I was thinking the analysis showed we were going to take a massive haircut in per team distribution when OUT depart.

Here is a projection as of today. Would guess the gap moves to $30 Million + if the 4 corners leave and Washington/Oregon are left in a PAC/Mountain West mash up.


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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33781 on: July 15, 2022, 10:43:50 AM »
I have no idea how much power Oregon and Washington have in terms of convincing the big 10 and SEC to let them in, but surely they are doing everything they can.  Until they accept that those doors are closed, they aren’t coming.

I agree with the people who say the best way to get Oregon and Washington is to further weaken the PAC.

Online Pete

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33782 on: July 15, 2022, 10:45:28 AM »
I wonder if we are telling Oregon and Washington that they have a reduced or non-existent exit fee if they join the Big 12 and the SEC or big 10 invite them?

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33783 on: July 15, 2022, 10:50:49 AM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

And the big 12 doesn't need them, especially with a price tag, so maybe this isn't a marriage that needs to happen. I actually think it's in their best interest to keep the Pac 10 together, even if the mountain schools leave. Their current valuation is crap, I'm guessing if they replaced the mountain schools with SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, and Boise they'd have a similar valuation and they, can do what the Big 12 did and separate their tier 3 rights so they can make more money than everyone else.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33784 on: July 15, 2022, 12:02:11 PM »
seriously USC and UCLA to the Big 10 is by far the dumbest move of all of this, right? I'm trying to think if anything has been close to that silly.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33785 on: July 15, 2022, 12:20:04 PM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

If they convince the four corners to stick it out with them as the current conference exists I don’t think that’s really all that accurate.  Maybe I’ve missed what the expected new Big 12 media deal projections look like though.  I was thinking the analysis showed we were going to take a massive haircut in per team distribution when OUT depart.

Here is a projection as of today. Would guess the gap moves to $30 Million + if the 4 corners leave and Washington/Oregon are left in a PAC/Mountain West mash up.



Who’s projections? Our numbers going up post OUT exiting is laughable.  Unless this is a facetious post, then well done.
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Offline bucket

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33786 on: July 15, 2022, 12:22:05 PM »
seriously USC and UCLA to the Big 10 is by far the dumbest move of all of this, right? I'm trying to think if anything has been close to that silly.

I can't wrap my head around how the PAC12 is such a bad conference. They have good programs and great markets within the conference.

Offline bozocat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33787 on: July 15, 2022, 12:23:45 PM »
What's going on in '26 that explains the big jump in every conference?

[NM, it's the expanded playoffs]  :blindfold:

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33788 on: July 15, 2022, 12:26:06 PM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

If they convince the four corners to stick it out with them as the current conference exists I don’t think that’s really all that accurate.  Maybe I’ve missed what the expected new Big 12 media deal projections look like though.  I was thinking the analysis showed we were going to take a massive haircut in per team distribution when OUT depart.

Here is a projection as of today. Would guess the gap moves to $30 Million + if the 4 corners leave and Washington/Oregon are left in a PAC/Mountain West mash up.



Who’s projections? Our numbers going up post OUT exiting is laughable.  Unless this is a facetious post, then well done.

That's when a new contract would kick in, IIRC.  It certainly could go up without OU and Texas, but not as much as it would with OU and Texas

Offline michigancat

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33789 on: July 15, 2022, 12:27:06 PM »
seriously USC and UCLA to the Big 10 is by far the dumbest move of all of this, right? I'm trying to think if anything has been close to that silly.

I can't wrap my head around how the PAC12 is such a bad conference. They have good programs and great markets within the conference.

no one cares there outside of like Oregon, Washington, and USC. I went to games at Stanford when they were top 10 caliber and had Christian McCaffery and the stands would be half full. Cal was worse.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33790 on: July 15, 2022, 12:28:19 PM »
seriously USC and UCLA to the Big 10 is by far the dumbest move of all of this, right? I'm trying to think if anything has been close to that silly.

Geographically it is probably the most absurd, Rutgers was probably up there on the head scratching scale.
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Offline Spracne

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33791 on: July 15, 2022, 12:29:00 PM »
seriously USC and UCLA to the Big 10 is by far the dumbest move of all of this, right? I'm trying to think if anything has been close to that silly.

I can't wrap my head around how the PAC12 is such a bad conference. They have good programs and great markets within the conference.

No one cares about college sports out west. (I'm generalizing, but relative to the South and Midwest, it's true.)

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33792 on: July 15, 2022, 12:30:20 PM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

If they convince the four corners to stick it out with them as the current conference exists I don’t think that’s really all that accurate.  Maybe I’ve missed what the expected new Big 12 media deal projections look like though.  I was thinking the analysis showed we were going to take a massive haircut in per team distribution when OUT depart.

Here is a projection as of today. Would guess the gap moves to $30 Million + if the 4 corners leave and Washington/Oregon are left in a PAC/Mountain West mash up.



Who’s projections? Our numbers going up post OUT exiting is laughable.  Unless this is a facetious post, then well done.

Our numbers are going up because the last media deal was done over a decade ago. With OU and Texas the payout would be $75-$80 million

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33793 on: July 15, 2022, 12:41:27 PM »
seriously USC and UCLA to the Big 10 is by far the dumbest move of all of this, right? I'm trying to think if anything has been close to that silly.

Yes and no. Financially, the Big 10 deal will be almost double of what the Pac 12 would have been with them, probably 40%, so that's a lot of money they can't turn down.

However, since the proliferation of huge money in college sports, I think there is only so much these athletic departments can do with the money. All of these athletic departments can afford all the scholarships they're allowed, they can all pay coaches what they want and constantly build and renovate facilities. We've absolutely gotten to the point where this money stuff is only about keeping up with the Joneses. What good is having all that money when you don't have regional rivals and your non football athletes have to spend all that time on airplanes and missing class, an even further degradation of the student athlete experience.

I also think that these deals are going to start to have a chilling effect on donations, especially for USC and UCLA. They are stripping the emotion out of college sports, and that's what it's supposed to be all about, because it certainly isn't the actual on field/court/ice product.

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33794 on: July 15, 2022, 12:46:19 PM »
seriously USC and UCLA to the Big 10 is by far the dumbest move of all of this, right? I'm trying to think if anything has been close to that silly.

I can't wrap my head around how the PAC12 is such a bad conference. They have good programs and great markets within the conference.

The great markets are loaded with other good stuff to do.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33795 on: July 15, 2022, 01:13:13 PM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

If they convince the four corners to stick it out with them as the current conference exists I don’t think that’s really all that accurate.  Maybe I’ve missed what the expected new Big 12 media deal projections look like though.  I was thinking the analysis showed we were going to take a massive haircut in per team distribution when OUT depart.

Here is a projection as of today. Would guess the gap moves to $30 Million + if the 4 corners leave and Washington/Oregon are left in a PAC/Mountain West mash up.



Who’s projections? Our numbers going up post OUT exiting is laughable.  Unless this is a facetious post, then well done.

Our numbers are going up because the last media deal was done over a decade ago. With OU and Texas the payout would be $75-$80 million

I get that our media deal is going to be adjusted for 2022 media dollars on forward but it will now split between 2 more schools that won’t bring incremental dollars.  I would think it would be flat if not down slightly.
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Offline Shooter Jones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33796 on: July 15, 2022, 01:35:44 PM »
Washington/Oregon have no incentive to join BIG 12 if they don’t get concessions such as reduced buyout or upfront money IMO

The incentive is a terrible Pac TV deal that is a lot worse than the B12.

If they convince the four corners to stick it out with them as the current conference exists I don’t think that’s really all that accurate.  Maybe I’ve missed what the expected new Big 12 media deal projections look like though.  I was thinking the analysis showed we were going to take a massive haircut in per team distribution when OUT depart.

Here is a projection as of today. Would guess the gap moves to $30 Million + if the 4 corners leave and Washington/Oregon are left in a PAC/Mountain West mash up.



Who’s projections? Our numbers going up post OUT exiting is laughable.  Unless this is a facetious post, then well done.

Our numbers are going up because the last media deal was done over a decade ago. With OU and Texas the payout would be $75-$80 million

I get that our media deal is going to be adjusted for 2022 media dollars on forward but it will now split between 2 more schools that won’t bring incremental dollars.  I would think it would be flat if not down slightly.

This example is extreme because it guesses the CFP expands and P5's get an auto-bid. Numbers are inflated, but the gap between the conference values is still significant.

If the PAC loses the 4 corners on top of USC/UCLA, they ain't getting an auto bid for crap.


Offline Spracne

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33798 on: July 15, 2022, 01:47:15 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-15/espn-streaming-price-raised-to-9-99-a-month-by-disney-dis#xj4y7vzkg

Would have been smarter to delay the increase until September. As a KU fan, obviously I need ESPN+ to watch football. But also, I'm not going to cancel in August only to renew in September, so perhaps a shrewd move.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33799 on: July 15, 2022, 01:56:04 PM »
@Shooter Jones I agree with you that if BIG 12 poaches the 4 corners the PAC 12 is effectively done as a conference.
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