Author Topic: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....  (Read 5032963 times)

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Offline Houstoncat93

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33725 on: July 12, 2022, 06:05:46 PM »
Here’s how to predict conference expansion and related fall out. Ask yourself “What change could make the most powerful 2 conferences richer?”

Close, What change could make the 2 most powerful NETWORKS richer is the right question.

In relation to March Madness that is not a 2 conference tournament.

Offline bucket

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33726 on: July 12, 2022, 06:39:46 PM »
Here’s how to predict conference expansion and related fall out. Ask yourself “What change could make the most powerful 2 conferences richer?”

Close, What change could make the 2 most powerful NETWORKS richer is the right question.

In relation to March Madness that is not a 2 conference tournament.

Wouldn't a CFP make more money than where we're heading with college football, though?
« Last Edit: July 12, 2022, 06:51:48 PM by bucket »

Offline Pete

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33727 on: July 12, 2022, 06:51:39 PM »
I don’t see how it’s feasible to create a viable alternative with just those two conferences teams.  You leave way too many quality basketball programs off the table to put together something rivaling the excitement of the current product.
What the eff does that have to do with making the big 10 and SEC more money?

Guys, they don’t give a eff if they ruin everything you love as long as it makes them more money.

The two conferences putting on a tournament only including their teams wouldn’t make more money for them IMO. It would be a vastly inferior product.  The P6 teams minus the SEC and big 10 would make for a larger draw.

Dax, what did the SEC and big 10 get from the NCAA tourney last year?

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33728 on: July 12, 2022, 10:29:37 PM »
I don’t see how it’s feasible to create a viable alternative with just those two conferences teams.  You leave way too many quality basketball programs off the table to put together something rivaling the excitement of the current product.
What the eff does that have to do with making the big 10 and SEC more money?

Guys, they don’t give a eff if they ruin everything you love as long as it makes them more money.

The two conferences putting on a tournament only including their teams wouldn’t make more money for them IMO. It would be a vastly inferior product.  The P6 teams minus the SEC and big 10 would make for a larger draw.

Dax, what did the SEC and big 10 get from the NCAA tourney last year?
I’d have to dig it up. But remember the NCAA tourney pays out on units earned over a 6 year period. The B12 for example is still distributing money from K-State’s last two trips to the NCAA tourney.   Right now the units are worth between around $260-$275k per year depending on the year earned and that amount is paid per year for six years for every unit.

So, the NCAA tourney is some sweet recurring revenue if your conference has piled up a bunch of units.  But in the end it doesn’t touch annual media payout, and bowl/CFPO payout is paid in full annually. 

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33729 on: July 12, 2022, 10:33:11 PM »
I don’t see how it’s feasible to create a viable alternative with just those two conferences teams.  You leave way too many quality basketball programs off the table to put together something rivaling the excitement of the current product.
What the eff does that have to do with making the big 10 and SEC more money?

Guys, they don’t give a eff if they ruin everything you love as long as it makes them more money.

The two conferences putting on a tournament only including their teams wouldn’t make more money for them IMO. It would be a vastly inferior product.  The P6 teams minus the SEC and big 10 would make for a larger draw.

Dax, what did the SEC and big 10 get from the NCAA tourney last year?

Pete, most of the money from the NCAA tournament comes from the actual physical inventory of games. You're not getting that inventory from two conferences putting on their own tournament. I'm unsure why you think they would make more money than they would with their conference tournaments that they already put on.

As far as what they currently make, that varies each year. The payouts are done by units. By virtue of having more teams and being in power conferences, they get more units than almost every other conference. The more teams you have and the more teams you have that advance the more units your conference gets.

This link explains how the units work, and how the NCAA distributes the money it makes. The Big 10 and SEC does not have a way to generate $50-$60 million dollars annually through a basketball tournament.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/college-sports/2022/ncaa-tournament-units-2022-1234669771/

Another thing to watch is that currently all of the other NCAA Championships media rights are packaged together. ESPN pays one fee for the women's basketball tournament, college baseball world series, college softball world series, volleyball tournament, hockey's frozen four, etc., all of those are one rights fee. After that contract is up in 2024 these will all go to bid separately which means a ton more money for the NCAA and it's member institutions.

They're about to get more money than they ever have had.

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Offline Pete

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33731 on: July 12, 2022, 10:46:43 PM »
I don’t see how it’s feasible to create a viable alternative with just those two conferences teams.  You leave way too many quality basketball programs off the table to put together something rivaling the excitement of the current product.
What the eff does that have to do with making the big 10 and SEC more money?

Guys, they don’t give a eff if they ruin everything you love as long as it makes them more money.

The two conferences putting on a tournament only including their teams wouldn’t make more money for them IMO. It would be a vastly inferior product.  The P6 teams minus the SEC and big 10 would make for a larger draw.

Dax, what did the SEC and big 10 get from the NCAA tourney last year?

Pete, most of the money from the NCAA tournament comes from the actual physical inventory of games. You're not getting that inventory from two conferences putting on their own tournament. I'm unsure why you think they would make more money than they would with their conference tournaments that they already put on.

As far as what they currently make, that varies each year. The payouts are done by units. By virtue of having more teams and being in power conferences, they get more units than almost every other conference. The more teams you have and the more teams you have that advance the more units your conference gets.

This link explains how the units work, and how the NCAA distributes the money it makes. The Big 10 and SEC does not have a way to generate $50-$60 million dollars annually through a basketball tournament.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/college-sports/2022/ncaa-tournament-units-2022-1234669771/

Another thing to watch is that currently all of the other NCAA Championships media rights are packaged together. ESPN pays one fee for the women's basketball tournament, college baseball world series, college softball world series, volleyball tournament, hockey's frozen four, etc., all of those are one rights fee. After that contract is up in 2024 these will all go to bid separately which means a ton more money for the NCAA and it's member institutions.

They're about to get more money than they ever have had.
If I were them, I’d leave the NCAA and do their own playoffs, not simply a tournament.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33732 on: July 12, 2022, 10:57:21 PM »
I don’t see how it’s feasible to create a viable alternative with just those two conferences teams.  You leave way too many quality basketball programs off the table to put together something rivaling the excitement of the current product.
What the eff does that have to do with making the big 10 and SEC more money?

Guys, they don’t give a eff if they ruin everything you love as long as it makes them more money.

The two conferences putting on a tournament only including their teams wouldn’t make more money for them IMO. It would be a vastly inferior product.  The P6 teams minus the SEC and big 10 would make for a larger draw.

Dax, what did the SEC and big 10 get from the NCAA tourney last year?

Pete, most of the money from the NCAA tournament comes from the actual physical inventory of games. You're not getting that inventory from two conferences putting on their own tournament. I'm unsure why you think they would make more money than they would with their conference tournaments that they already put on.

As far as what they currently make, that varies each year. The payouts are done by units. By virtue of having more teams and being in power conferences, they get more units than almost every other conference. The more teams you have and the more teams you have that advance the more units your conference gets.

This link explains how the units work, and how the NCAA distributes the money it makes. The Big 10 and SEC does not have a way to generate $50-$60 million dollars annually through a basketball tournament.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/college-sports/2022/ncaa-tournament-units-2022-1234669771/

Another thing to watch is that currently all of the other NCAA Championships media rights are packaged together. ESPN pays one fee for the women's basketball tournament, college baseball world series, college softball world series, volleyball tournament, hockey's frozen four, etc., all of those are one rights fee. After that contract is up in 2024 these will all go to bid separately which means a ton more money for the NCAA and it's member institutions.

They're about to get more money than they ever have had.
If I were them, I’d leave the NCAA and do their own playoffs, not simply a tournament.

I don't think that would really move the needle on viewership.

Offline Trim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33733 on: July 12, 2022, 11:50:41 PM »
Any college basketball thing’s success is entirely about how it lends itself to betting pools and rough ridin' around instead of working.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33734 on: July 13, 2022, 12:02:20 AM »
https://twitter.com/jjfuller72/status/1547054549449560064

The data isn't the headline here, look at the last line on the table about Oregon and Washington. There is no way in hell the four corner schools will stay with that provision.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33735 on: July 13, 2022, 12:06:35 AM »
I don’t see how it’s feasible to create a viable alternative with just those two conferences teams.  You leave way too many quality basketball programs off the table to put together something rivaling the excitement of the current product.
What the eff does that have to do with making the big 10 and SEC more money?

Guys, they don’t give a eff if they ruin everything you love as long as it makes them more money.

The two conferences putting on a tournament only including their teams wouldn’t make more money for them IMO. It would be a vastly inferior product.  The P6 teams minus the SEC and big 10 would make for a larger draw.

Dax, what did the SEC and big 10 get from the NCAA tourney last year?

Pete, most of the money from the NCAA tournament comes from the actual physical inventory of games. You're not getting that inventory from two conferences putting on their own tournament. I'm unsure why you think they would make more money than they would with their conference tournaments that they already put on.

As far as what they currently make, that varies each year. The payouts are done by units. By virtue of having more teams and being in power conferences, they get more units than almost every other conference. The more teams you have and the more teams you have that advance the more units your conference gets.

This link explains how the units work, and how the NCAA distributes the money it makes. The Big 10 and SEC does not have a way to generate $50-$60 million dollars annually through a basketball tournament.

https://www.sportico.com/leagues/college-sports/2022/ncaa-tournament-units-2022-1234669771/

Another thing to watch is that currently all of the other NCAA Championships media rights are packaged together. ESPN pays one fee for the women's basketball tournament, college baseball world series, college softball world series, volleyball tournament, hockey's frozen four, etc., all of those are one rights fee. After that contract is up in 2024 these will all go to bid separately which means a ton more money for the NCAA and it's member institutions.

They're about to get more money than they ever have had.
If I were them, I’d leave the NCAA and do their own playoffs, not simply a tournament.

No media company is going to pay $100 million a year to watch Kentucky and Michigan play a best of 5 series. Who is watching that? I'm certainly not and I actually watch regular season college basketball, lots of it. Playoffs works in the NBA because people know who the players are and the product is good. March college basketball works because the novelty of one and done.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2022, 02:31:55 AM by MakeItRain »

Offline Pete

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33736 on: July 13, 2022, 08:18:03 AM »
I am still firmly of the belief that a horrible terrible dog-crap big 10/SEC only playoff/tournament for their own National Championship in basketball would earn the big 10/SEC members more money than their current participation in the NCAA basketball tournament.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33737 on: July 13, 2022, 08:31:32 AM »
I am still firmly of the belief that a horrible terrible dog-crap big 10/SEC only playoff/tournament for their own National Championship in basketball would earn the big 10/SEC members more money than their current participation in the NCAA basketball tournament.

Yeah buddy, if showing you that they currently run conference tournaments that between them literally have zero value doesn't convince you, then nothing will.  :dunno: You think that some media entity will pay $100 million a year for something they're currently getting for free.


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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33739 on: July 13, 2022, 10:30:32 AM »
There's just no way they would/could do it to the exclusion of the NCAA tournament that makes any sense.

If they want to have a big moneymaking two-conference event, they could just as easily replace their own conference tournaments with a longer "Mega Conference Championship" or something that happens in the 15 (or so) days prior to the big dance.  Killing or wounding the NCAA tournament is just unnecessary and would cost them money and political capital -- it would probably also have a pretty brutal monetary impact on the hundreds of non-rev sports programs across those two conferences, but I haven't thought through that very much yet.


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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33741 on: July 13, 2022, 12:56:46 PM »
:emawkid:

Offline konofo

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33742 on: July 13, 2022, 01:15:51 PM »
I'd rather have the four corner schools over Oregon + Washington + 2 others.  My primary interest is in long-term stability, and I don't think adding a prima donna like Oregon serves that interest.  We're about to have a conference of (relative) peers, and there's zero chance Oregon sees itself that way.  They'd try to fill the bully role that Texas is leaving vacant, and they'd always have one foot out the door.

kono

Offline Shooter Jones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33743 on: July 13, 2022, 01:49:05 PM »
Sounds okay to me.

https://twitter.com/PeterBurnsESPN/status/1547256476300988416

Someone has probably covered it on here, but.... without negotiating, and OU/UT were to leave next summer, they'd owe roughly $160 mill combined? (80m from each - $20 million to each school)... and in the summer of 24 they'll owe $80 mill combined (40m from each - $10 million to each school?)?

Is that right?

I think I'd like to see estimated numbers (and have a deal in place?) on the new TV deal long before considering the second tweet.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33744 on: July 13, 2022, 02:08:02 PM »
“Make it up in the next contract” seems nearly impossible
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33745 on: July 13, 2022, 02:47:07 PM »
Sounds okay to me.

https://twitter.com/PeterBurnsESPN/status/1547256476300988416

Someone has probably covered it on here, but.... without negotiating, and OU/UT were to leave next summer, they'd owe roughly $160 mill combined? (80m from each - $20 million to each school)... and in the summer of 24 they'll owe $80 mill combined (40m from each - $10 million to each school?)?

Is that right?

I think I'd like to see estimated numbers (and have a deal in place?) on the new TV deal long before considering the second tweet.

These numbers are correct, that second tweet is asinine.

If OU and Texas don't pay every penny they owe Yormark needs to be fired and never be in charge of anything ever again. There's no financial benefit to negotiate a early buyout to bring on any school. None of those PAC 12 schools are going anywhere before 2024.

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33746 on: July 13, 2022, 03:38:57 PM »
Sounds okay to me.

https://twitter.com/PeterBurnsESPN/status/1547256476300988416

Someone has probably covered it on here, but.... without negotiating, and OU/UT were to leave next summer, they'd owe roughly $160 mill combined? (80m from each - $20 million to each school)... and in the summer of 24 they'll owe $80 mill combined (40m from each - $10 million to each school?)?

Is that right?

I think I'd like to see estimated numbers (and have a deal in place?) on the new TV deal long before considering the second tweet.

These numbers are correct, that second tweet is asinine.

If OU and Texas don't pay every penny they owe Yormark needs to be fired and never be in charge of anything ever again. There's no financial benefit to negotiate a early buyout to bring on any school. None of those PAC 12 schools are going anywhere before 2024.
Agreed


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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33748 on: July 14, 2022, 10:58:02 AM »
Sounds okay to me.

https://twitter.com/PeterBurnsESPN/status/1547256476300988416

Someone has probably covered it on here, but.... without negotiating, and OU/UT were to leave next summer, they'd owe roughly $160 mill combined? (80m from each - $20 million to each school)... and in the summer of 24 they'll owe $80 mill combined (40m from each - $10 million to each school?)?

Is that right?

I think I'd like to see estimated numbers (and have a deal in place?) on the new TV deal long before considering the second tweet.

These numbers are correct, that second tweet is asinine.

If OU and Texas don't pay every penny they owe Yormark needs to be fired and never be in charge of anything ever again. There's no financial benefit to negotiate a early buyout to bring on any school. None of those PAC 12 schools are going anywhere before 2024.
Agreed


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Offline chum1

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #33749 on: July 14, 2022, 11:14:41 AM »
To me, using a signing bonus to help lure Washington and Oregon is the interesting suggestion there. I'm personally not that interested in the maximizing profit or seeking retribution aspects.