Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Katpappy]

Just watched this podcast: 


It's got some interesting points.  A third super conference where all three of the PAC, ACC, and Big XII merge to form a 24-team conference equal to the big 10 and SEC.  They form their own rules and tell the NCAA to jump ship.  With the large network contracts still available, they could offer a million-dollar payout to each team to give to their players which would eliminate the NIL advantage that the SEC and big 10 would have.  As many times as the media has brought up the idea of a third super conference, I think this may be in the cards.

[TheHamburglar]

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-pac-12-gut-punch-comes-with?sd=pf

Lots of quotes from former Fox Sports exec in this one.

I know I’m extremely pessimistic. But I think the BigTen is going to wait for ND, even if takes years. I think it’s a low probability, but I see a path where each of the current 10 teams in the PAC have no other options, so they stick together for their next deal and make a play to go to 16 with Iowa State, KU, Oklahoma State, TCU, Tech, & Houston.

[Katpappy]

We have the third highest network payout; do you really think Big II schools will want to be part of the crap hole known as the PAC 12 ?.

[TheHamburglar]

We have the third highest network payout; do you really think Big II schools will want to be part of the crap hole known as the PAC 12 ?.

We don’t know what our payout will be for the next Big12 deal. I’d think it could be close to the $30MM/team the ex-FSN executive in the Canzano article put the remaining PAC schools at. 

Also, the admins at schools like KU & TCU aren’t looking at a group of schools including Cal, Stanford, Washington & Oregon and thinking “shithole”.

[wetwillie]

When did TCU become relevant to realignment?  I keep seeing their name on occasion and think people are trolling.

[TheHamburglar]

When did TCU become relevant to realignment?  I keep seeing their name on occasion and think people are trolling.

When everything else is close to equal, Dallas is the kicker for them. If all the current metrics are close between TCU & someone else, you choose the one that you can easily fly other other teams in commercially or the one that if they go on an 11 win season could pull in an extra 500k eyeballs because they’re getting local publicity.

Wilner said it better than me today. He brought up that Oregon & Washington are the two biggest tent poles left outside of BigTen/SEC/ACC. That’s why I don’t buy the idea that the PAC is dead yet. The ex-FSN exec in the Canzano article puts both Washington & Oregon well below the anticipated BigTen payouts, so I think that puts them at a much lower chance of getting a BigTen invite.

Everyone’s talking about the Big12 raiding the Pac. If Washington & Oregon aren’t gone to the BigTen soon before the BigTen signs their new deal, I don’t see how a new western conference coalesces around the Big12 instead of Oregon & UW.

[sonofdaxjones]

Still spitballing:

Some of you need to set aside some of the pessimism and doom and gloom.

The Big 12 will be the 3rd super conference.   If the remaining PAC public's are smart, they'll  look to join up with the Big 12.  Then wait and see what happens with the ACC. 

The Big 12 could be the conference that spans the nation. 

The East:  WVU, Louisville, Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, NC State, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, Central Florida, Miami

Middle West:  Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech,  TCU,  Baylor, Houston, Colorado, Colorado State

The West:  BYU, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State, Boise State/San Diego State

[Houstoncat93]

We have the third highest network payout; do you really think Big II schools will want to be part of the crap hole known as the PAC 12 ?.

We don’t know what our payout will be for the next Big12 deal. I’d think it could be close to the $30MM/team the ex-FSN executive in the Canzano article put the remaining PAC schools at. 

Also, the admins at schools like KU & TCU aren’t looking at a group of schools including Cal, Stanford, Washington & Oregon and thinking “shithole”.

The Athletic had a study done in March about project revenue for each power 5.  This is with UT OU in SEC and USC UCLA still in PAC..  They used an outside firm to come up with the estimate so I think this is probably the best publicity available source. 

https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1542575913354702848?t=dJ8YHW9j4bnMlz_ZPVTIhw&s=19

[sonofdaxjones]

That's not happening in the Pac.   The Pac isn't even going to exist in 2029.   

I put no value in anything the Athletic says.  It's all clickbait.

[Houstoncat93]

That's not happening in the Pac.   The Pac isn't even going to exist in 2029.   

I put no value in anything the Athletic says.  It's all clickbait.

It was a projection they did in March using a firm called Navigate   Of course it isn't valid now Captain Obvious.

Do you have better numbers, sources or info or is your sole criticism of the information to call the source a name and think you really did something?

[sonofdaxjones]

That's not happening in the Pac.   The Pac isn't even going to exist in 2029.   

I put no value in anything the Athletic says.  It's all clickbait.

It was a projection they did in March using a firm called Navigate   Of course it isn't valid now Captain Obvious.

Do you have better numbers, sources or info or is your sole criticism of the information to call the source a name and think you really did something?

The date of the Tweet was 6/1.

I was also just commenting on what was posted. 

The Athletic is just click bait.

[star seed 7]

That's not happening in the Pac.   The Pac isn't even going to exist in 2029.   

I put no value in anything the Athletic says.  It's all clickbait.

It was a projection they did in March using a firm called Navigate   Of course it isn't valid now Captain Obvious.

Do you have better numbers, sources or info or is your sole criticism of the information to call the source a name and think you really did something?

The date of the Tweet was 6/1.

I was also just commenting on what was posted. 

The Athletic is just click bait.

Dax, the tweet clearly says "revenue projections from March."

[Pete]

Interesting job our new commish has.  Zero risk. I mean, if our conference is raided and we drop in status, nothing happens to him.

[wetwillie]

Yea he just needs to drop his massive nuts on the table and finish off the Pac 12.  big 10 will deal the blow just need to finish the job.

[Pete]

I am convinced that the big 10 and SEC will form their own playoff and say eff you to everyone else.

[_33]

They should just make one 64 team superconference and break it down into regions.  Our region could be called the Big 8 region and it would include KSU, KU, OSU, OU, ISU, MU, NU, and CU.  Just a thought.

[Houstoncat93]

I am convinced that the big 10 and SEC will form their own playoff and say eff you to everyone else.

I don't think so. It is kind of like the illusion that any of 300 teams could win the NCAA tourney. The hope drives interest which drives $$$. Fox and ESPN will want the most for their bottom line.

[Pete]

I don’t think the haves have any reason to share with the have nots. My suspicion is that they will make way more money be keeping it closer to 40 or fewer teams.

I don’t think we should ever underestimate American greed.

[sonofdaxjones]

That's not happening in the Pac.   The Pac isn't even going to exist in 2029.   

I put no value in anything the Athletic says.  It's all clickbait.

It was a projection they did in March using a firm called Navigate   Of course it isn't valid now Captain Obvious.

Do you have better numbers, sources or info or is your sole criticism of the information to call the source a name and think you really did something?

The date of the Tweet was 6/1.

I was also just commenting on what was posted. 

The Athletic is just click bait.

Dax, the tweet clearly says "revenue projections from March."

Okay, I don’t understand why Nicole or anyone thinks they’re relevant now.  So why even bother Tweeting it?

Remember, when this all started blowing up 10 years ago, per some the SEC was already going to be at $70 million per team now, well 2 or 3 years ago in fact.

Revenue numbers like that also jeopardize non profit status IMO.


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[Katpappy]

They should just make one 64 team superconference and break it down into regions.  Our region could be called the Big 8 region and it would include KSU, KU, OSU, OU, ISU, MU, NU, and CU.  Just a thought.

Name needs to be "old Big 8".    What a dream boat that was before Texas mumped it up.

[Pete]

I also think that the new big 10 and SEC seriously contemplate (or have already decided) to completely leave the NCAA behind.

[Pete]

That's not happening in the Pac.   The Pac isn't even going to exist in 2029.   

I put no value in anything the Athletic says.  It's all clickbait.

It was a projection they did in March using a firm called Navigate   Of course it isn't valid now Captain Obvious.

Do you have better numbers, sources or info or is your sole criticism of the information to call the source a name and think you really did something?

The date of the Tweet was 6/1.

I was also just commenting on what was posted. 

The Athletic is just click bait.

Dax, the tweet clearly says "revenue projections from March."

Okay, I don’t understand why Nicole or anyone thinks they’re relevant now.  So why even bother Tweeting it?

Remember, when this all started blowing up 10 years ago, per some the SEC was already going to be at $70 million per team now, well 2 or 3 years ago in fact.

Revenue numbers like that also jeopardize non profit status IMO.


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The math probably says who gives a crap if they have to go for-profit. There many ways they could recoup that money if they were no longer part of the NCAA.  A smaller MBB national championship where they kept all the money would be huge, even if it appeared to be a flop to those of us who are fans of the NCAA tournament.

[Pete]

I am predicting that what ever creates the most wealth for the big 10 and SEC will decide every path going forward.

[wiley]

I am predicting that what ever creates the most wealth for the big 10 and SEC will decide every path going forward.

I agree with this.  But i also think contraction happens.  There’s no chance Texas, ohio state, michigan, ND are going to be cool splitting the pot with mississippi state, Vandy, Mizzou, Nebraska and a slew of other regionally popular schools.


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[Houstoncat93]

I don’t think the haves have any reason to share with the have nots. My suspicion is that they will make way more money be keeping it closer to 40 or fewer teams.

I don’t think we should ever underestimate American greed.

I absolutely agree that this is driven by greed, I just think it is more driven by the greed of the networks than the top two conferences. I could be wrong on which option is more valuable but I am 100% sure that they will choose the best option for the networks.