Author Topic: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....  (Read 4068030 times)

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Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26275 on: July 02, 2015, 11:48:31 AM »
I understand that K-State may and likely will need a new conference at some point in the future, I've said that since the beginning of this stuff.   But that doesn't make the Texas and OU position (or at least the fan position) less idiotic and short sighted in its own right.

It would stand to reason using an historical context that the Big 12 is essentially the old Big 8.   Thus if history is our guide and a predictor of the future, than OU and Texas being "down" is merely a short term situation.   Thus, the cream will eventually rise back to the top, and OU and Texas will once again rule the football world in the Big 12 and via the weight of their blue bloodedness  will be a near lock to make the CFB playoff regularly.  If the CFB expands and both are back to their "rightful" place, they'll both be perennial CFB playoff locks.   Using their own logic against them, and their own assumptions against them, which presume sexier (meaning tougher) conference opponents, it's going to be extremely difficult for either to duplicate the same success anywhere else.   

Of course, then they try to pull out the "falling behind" argument from a revenue perspective.   I'll just say this without getting into a ton of details, if either OU or Texas think they're going to fall behind based on conference payout (which includes TV) than they have far more serious revenue challenges than just conference revenue payout.  Because even with things like the BiG's new TV contract (which they've already started projecting) there isn't going to be that big a difference between the Big 12 the BiG and the SEC.   Particularly for two schools that already make $130 and $161 million a year on athletics right now. 

Playing in the CFB playoffs, being back at their "rightful place" is going to more than make up for a few million dollars difference in conference total distributions (without even factoring in Tier III deals).   The big cigars will be writing checks right and left.     

What I see, at least from the fans, is a total lack of confidence, and essentially a capitulation;  they'd rather lose to LSU or Oregon, than lose to Baylor or TCU.    Sad




« Last Edit: July 02, 2015, 11:51:35 AM by sonofdaxjones »

Offline kslim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26276 on: July 02, 2015, 11:49:28 AM »
whats wrong with it slim?
well comparing ou/texas/baylor to ohio state/wisconsin/michigan state for starters.

you don't think that TCU, Baylor, and OU were on par with OSU, Wisconsin and MSU?

My point is that the top of our conference is about even with the big 10 but they have a huge amount of schools that don't compete whatsoever
not even rough ridin' close. those three teams in the big 10 are combined 97-23 the last three years and thats with a 7-6 season in 2012 by msu. ohio state has lost three games total in the last three years. only alabama can be mentioned with them and ou has sucked lately. minnesota is better and iowa would finish 5th in the big 12. you're giving to much credit to teams in our bottom half. the big 10 is simply better overall

Offline hippocraticoaf

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26277 on: July 02, 2015, 12:00:25 PM »
whats wrong with it slim?
well comparing ou/texas/baylor to ohio state/wisconsin/michigan state for starters.

you don't think that TCU, Baylor, and OU were on par with OSU, Wisconsin and MSU?

My point is that the top of our conference is about even with the big 10 but they have a huge amount of schools that don't compete whatsoever
not even rough ridin' close. those three teams in the big 10 are combined 97-23 the last three years and thats with a 7-6 season in 2012 by msu. ohio state has lost three games total in the last three years. only alabama can be mentioned with them and ou has sucked lately. minnesota is better and iowa would finish 5th in the big 12. you're giving to much credit to teams in our bottom half. the big 10 is simply better overall

Im not sayin powerhouse teams that compete every single year, I'm saying each year our top 3 could easily run with their's. So it wouldn't be the same 3 every year. I just used OSU, MSU, wisconsin and then Baylor TCU and Oklahoma/K-State because I thought they were the 3 best from each conference last year.

The teams in our conference are much less consistent but I don't think the best are any worse year to year.


Offline kslim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26278 on: July 02, 2015, 12:02:12 PM »
umm yeah actually we prove that time and time again in bowl games. its okay tho because none of this even matters at this point

Offline hippocraticoaf

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26279 on: July 02, 2015, 12:05:06 PM »
umm yeah actually we prove that time and time again in bowl games. its okay tho because none of this even matters at this point

True enough, like chingon pointed out, numbers are what matter. Viewers, and size of the state basically.

Offline kslim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26280 on: July 02, 2015, 12:07:43 PM »
umm yeah actually we prove that time and time again in bowl games. its okay tho because none of this even matters at this point

True enough, like chingon pointed out, numbers are what matter. Viewers, and size of the state basically.
exactly, we just need to be patient in all of this. wait until an acc team or two is left out and watch them fall apart first.

Offline kslim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26281 on: July 02, 2015, 12:08:55 PM »
and i dont mean not to be proactive but we cant just go pick up garbage schools to try and hold on to p5 status

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26282 on: July 02, 2015, 12:11:27 PM »
FYI, once you toss in their radio, Texas will make over $50 million dollars from conference distribution/LHN/Tier III media in FY 2016.     

Offline kslim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26283 on: July 02, 2015, 12:13:37 PM »
lol texas has a better deal than the royals do. good grief just go independent already

Offline hippocraticoaf

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26284 on: July 02, 2015, 12:14:24 PM »
and i dont mean not to be proactive but we cant just go pick up garbage schools to try and hold on to p5 status

Definitely, I don't know if you saw my post a few pages back about snagging FSU and Clemson maybe more if the SEC takes a couple from the ACC when the GOR is up but i definitely agree. I think the B12 waters down the conference and further kills the conference's perception by adding anything other than a big name school.

Offline Steffy08

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26285 on: July 02, 2015, 12:33:24 PM »
The Big XII is an irrelevant conference in CFB, it is now essentially a beefed up Mountain West and clearly a step behind the SEC, Big Ten, the ACC (with the addition of ND), and Pac 12.   Like the Mountain West, WAC, MAC, and C-USA a team from the Big XII will need to be undefeated and get very very lucky to get into the playoff. Could happen once every couple decades maybe (not that it will because the soon enough major CFB will be closed off to teams outside the Big 4 conference).

OU and Texas are smart to look to land in a conference that matters (even at the cost of having less "power").

The only thing that really matters is football and the Big 12 is absolutely better than the ACC in football, as well as the Big 10. The problem with these bigger conferences is that they have so many pud schools. Take the Big 10 for example, the 14 teams in the conference include (think about football) illinios, iowa, indiana, maryland, minnesota, northwestern, purdue, and rutgers. These 8 teams are in no way better than a texas tech or oklahoma state for instance.

Michigan and penn state are big names, but recently they simply haven't been competing at a high level.

Then you have Nebraska, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Admittedly good teams, but not really more so than Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, and maybe K-State the past few years.

They may have 1 more good team, but over half of the conference is complete garbage.
Doesn't matter the quality of football, it matters how many TV sets they draw.  Ohio State mowing its way through ShitBall U every weekend on its way to the playoffs will still draw tons of viewers.  The Big Ten is super powerful in terms of influence. 

It's not about which conference has better teams here. It's about brand and perception.

What a drama queen.

First of all, people want to watch teams ranked at the top.  This is why K-State can get picked for primetime game over a UT or OU; if K-State is playing for a national championship, like in 2012, they are going to be picked for primetime by ESPN/Fox over UT/OU because the TV execs know this will draw a bigger crowd.  Even with our small alumni base and small state demographics.

Second, the future of television watching is going to change.  Instead of bundling the Big 10 package to a bunch of people that might not want it (and thus making them pay), TV viewing is going to be a la carte/pay per view.  This means that "getting into big markets" (the talking point of the last decade) will change.  Under this new structure, nobody cares if your conference "has" the Denver market or New York market.  The question will be how many people are willing to pay to watch this product.  K-State will fare much better in this new world.  We might not have a lot of alumni, and we are in a small state, but a hell of a lot of people in Kansas (percentage wise) want to watch KSU play football.  Not as much as the people that will pay to watch, say, Penn State, mind you, but the difference between the people who will pay to watch KSU as opposed to say Penn State is a hell of a lot smaller than the difference between the number of people in Kansas and the number of people in Pennsylvania/New York.

Everybody just needs to chill.  After we win a natty with Banks at QB, the question will be whether we must be tied to KU or whether we can go our own way.

Offline kslim

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26286 on: July 02, 2015, 12:38:00 PM »
kstate didnt play for a national championship in 2012

Offline Pete

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26287 on: July 02, 2015, 12:43:40 PM »
In the good old days, this thread was about what we think will happen.  It was not about what we think SHOULD happen, or why what will happen will eventually make schools unhappy.  This is conference realignment.  There are no rough ridin' shoulds.

I encourage each of you to personally take some time off from telling me which schools you think would be great to have in our conference even though it will never happen, or how such and such school would learn to regret a change of conference. I do not give a eff, and I suspect I am not alone.

Let's focus on trying to understand what is happening, the forces that are driving it, and where it is headed.  If in doubt, ask yourself "Would Pan do a dumb ass post like this in the Cigars thread?"  If the answer is "no," then you probably shouldn't post it in this thread.

Tough love for some of you.  For others I apologize that you had to see this, and keep up the good work.


Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26288 on: July 02, 2015, 02:50:20 PM »
I won't go back and read 800 pages ago.  But lets say OU, Texas and KU do bail, and the remaining Big 12 schools hold firm.   Then I believe that the three schools leaving would have to pay a substantial exit fee as technically the conference would not be dissolving, and the remaining schools could keep the Big 12 conference intact and of course invite replacements.


Offline Steffy08

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26289 on: July 02, 2015, 03:10:40 PM »
kstate didnt play for a national championship in 2012

You know what I meant; we were in the hunt for a national championship for all of October/early November.  That is why we had primetime, nationally-televised games against OU, WV, OSU, TCU, and BU. 

According to the logic I was responding to, networks would never put us on primetime because our alumni base is so small.  And, yet, there we were, week after week.

Offline PIPE

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26290 on: July 02, 2015, 03:15:26 PM »
If FSU would have lost just one of the 8 games or so that they should have lost last year, Baylor gets into the playoff.
If Wisky then beats OSU in the championship of the big10, then TCU gets into the playoff.


2 teams from our dopy conference are in the finals and everyone is talking about how great the Big12 is!!!!! Tell OU prez that and to shut up. :Crybaby:

Even if we had a Dr Pepper, and lets say BU beats TCU again, would they really have jumped over an OSU? DOUBT IT.
Awaiting the inevitable KITN

Offline CHONGS

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26291 on: July 02, 2015, 03:41:06 PM »
kstate didnt play for a national championship in 2012

You know what I meant; we were in the hunt for a national championship for all of October/early November.  That is why we had primetime, nationally-televised games against OU, WV, OSU, TCU, and BU. 

According to the logic I was responding to, networks would never put us on primetime because our alumni base is so small.  And, yet, there we were, week after week.
for the record I never said this

Offline Pete

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26292 on: July 02, 2015, 03:53:45 PM »
FWIW, I believe Cowherd doesn't know anything.  I think he is a liar.

Feinbaum is just chasing ratings.



Offline Skipper44

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26293 on: July 02, 2015, 04:17:44 PM »

These people aren't random fans.  They are millionaire, 6-figure annual donating, luxury box owning families.
what do these folks say about the OSU problem?

Offline Steffy08

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26294 on: July 02, 2015, 04:52:36 PM »
kstate didnt play for a national championship in 2012

You know what I meant; we were in the hunt for a national championship for all of October/early November.  That is why we had primetime, nationally-televised games against OU, WV, OSU, TCU, and BU. 

According to the logic I was responding to, networks would never put us on primetime because our alumni base is so small.  And, yet, there we were, week after week.
for the record I never said this

I know you didn't.  But the logic you were using would suggest this.

Anyway, the points I was trying to make are made much more effectively with the cool charts you posted on the other threat (nice work; I really enjoyed these).  K-State is by no means a "huge" media draw, but if we keep winning we won't be left out.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26295 on: July 02, 2015, 09:17:29 PM »
If FSU would have lost just one of the 8 games or so that they should have lost last year, Baylor gets into the playoff.
If Wisky then beats OSU in the championship of the big10, then TCU gets into the playoff.


2 teams from our dopy conference are in the finals and everyone is talking about how great the Big12 is!!!!! Tell OU prez that and to shut up. :Crybaby:

Even if we had a Dr Pepper, and lets say BU beats TCU again, would they really have jumped over an OSU? DOUBT IT.

Wisconsin didn't even need to win, they just didn't need to crap all over themselves.

Also I sort of agree with steffy, enough so that I'm going to go and take a bath to wash all of this smell off.

Offline 0.42

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26296 on: July 02, 2015, 09:28:59 PM »
FWIW, I believe Cowherd doesn't know anything.  I think he is a liar.

Feinbaum is just chasing ratings.

 :thumbs:

Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26297 on: July 02, 2015, 10:47:46 PM »
In the good old days, this thread was about what we think will happen.  It was not about what we think SHOULD happen, or why what will happen will eventually make schools unhappy.  This is conference realignment.  There are no rough ridin' shoulds.

I encourage each of you to personally take some time off from telling me which schools you think would be great to have in our conference even though it will never happen, or how such and such school would learn to regret a change of conference. I do not give a eff, and I suspect I am not alone.

Let's focus on trying to understand what is happening, the forces that are driving it, and where it is headed.  If in doubt, ask yourself "Would Pan do a dumb ass post like this in the Cigars thread?"  If the answer is "no," then you probably shouldn't post it in this thread.

Tough love for some of you.  For others I apologize that you had to see this, and keep up the good work.

Thank you, Pete.

Things are going to break one of two ways.  We're either going to see further consolidation into even bigger conferences, or they're going to break up into smaller conferences.  A lot of this is going to hinge on a few things:

  • What does the future of cable look like?  A la carte?  Where do conference networks fit in?
  • How does streaming impact this?
  • How big is the playoff going to get?
  • Play out how autonomy impacts college athletics.  In 5-10 years, who can really afford a seat at the table?  What does this mean for FBS?

I've gone back and forth on a lot of this, but there are a few key drivers here that we need to consider. 

First, these cable networks can make a content provider a lot of money.  But, as some have rightly joked, you end up watching water polo and ultimate frisbee at times.  To make these a "must have" in the new model, you'll need to beef up live content to keep people wanting them in the basic sports packages.  That means adding "must have" content.  To do that, you have to increase the good and dump the bad.  Don't think so much about subscriber fees; those will be important, but what's more important is keeping it in a bundle.  For example, if you end up buying an ESPN bundle or a Fox bundle, will you demand those carry the SEC Network and the Big Ten Network?  Regardless of whether or not they sold that in app form or through a cable package?

My thought is that you can monetize this in two ways: One, beef up Tier 3 by adding a lot more teams, and, two, create a "Tier 4" where you dump a bunch of crap on the Internet for a lesser monthly fee for zealots who want to watch non-revenue sports or really bad conference match-ups.

To do this, conferences have to get bigger.  I'm not talking 16 teams; I'm talking 18-20 teams.  That's potentially having 120-140 football games under your control every year.  That's an ungodly amount of men's basketball, women's basketball, baseball, etc.

The flip side to these big conferences is, "Well, then you don't play everyone, and it doesn't feel like a conference any more."

People need to get over the thought of conferences as they know them and think of them as a conglomerate with divisions.

I'll post more in a different post because I'm sitting down with some gin, and I'm in the mood to type.  People don't like single posts that just go on forever.

Offline Panjandrum

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26298 on: July 02, 2015, 11:04:15 PM »
Alright, imagine if you will, a "Pac 20".  This is a 20 team conference that will have nearly every major university and team West of the Mississippi.  They will have a huge presence in both the Central and Pacific time zones.  There will be two ten team divisions that will almost function as two separate conferences.  The Big Ten, SEC, ACC, etc. will do something similar.  Maybe not 20 teams (I have the Big Ten and SEC down as 18 and ACC as 16, and I can elaborate on that if anyone cares...), but they'll be similar to this.

Pac 20 West (Original Pac-10): USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Pac 20 East (Mostly Big 8/Big 12/SWC): Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, Colorado

In this arrangement, the Pac-10 goes back to playing they way they did before they expanded.  Everybody plays everyone like they always did in football and all other non-revenue sports.  In the East, six of the old Big 8 teams are back together, plus three Texas schools and Utah.  While Colorado may not be thrilled, no one in the Pac 20 would actually care.  It would keep a lot of the rivalries together that matter, and everyone would get to keep playing the teams they've grown to have rivalries with in the past 20 years. 

You'd get 9 division games. One game each year would be dedicated to playing someone from the other division.  You don't want too many cross-divisional games because at the end of the year, you want to have one big championship game that rivals the intensity of a major bowl game.

Imagine the winner of those East/West divisions playing a major championship game in Dallas, Phoenix, San Francisco, LA, San Diego, etc. every year.  They'd rotate between Dallas and some West Coast destination every other year.  If each conference had a similar set up, you have your 8 team playoff.  No one can tell me that Oregon/Oklahoma or USC/Texas...hell, even TCU/Oregon wouldn't be must see TV...

On the basketball side, you still get 18 conference games a year.  Nothing would change from your current configuration.  If you wanted to get crazy, you could add a couple of cross-divisional games each year for grins, one home/one away. 

But just think of the 18 team conference tournament that could be held in KC, OKC, Dallas, Vegas, LA, etc. every year...THAT would be a tournament worth watching.

Now, from a TV standpoint, this configuration wouldn't water any of the current contracts down.  The Big 12 and Pac-12 share very similar T1/T2 deals with ESPN and Fox.  In fact, we'd actually be shedding some games because we'd be dropping total content by two schools.  However, there's a lot of extra games that we could ultimately put on the Pac-20 network in football and basketball that would make it viable in a new reality.  Plus, the Pac 12 would expand it's footprint into the central time zone and into states with 40 million people in the population.  You could easily have wall to wall, live prime time basketball in the Central and Western time zones 7 days a week between the men and women.  It would be glorious.

This is the vision Larry Scott and Dan Beebe had before all Hell went loose.  But they just wanted to keep the conferences separate.  That was dumb.  Merge them.

Offline Blackcats

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Re: Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....
« Reply #26299 on: July 02, 2015, 11:25:49 PM »
Alright, imagine if you will, a "Pac 20".  This is a 20 team conference that will have nearly every major university and team West of the Mississippi.  They will have a huge presence in both the Central and Pacific time zones.  There will be two ten team divisions that will almost function as two separate conferences.  The Big Ten, SEC, ACC, etc. will do something similar.  Maybe not 20 teams (I have the Big Ten and SEC down as 18 and ACC as 16, and I can elaborate on that if anyone cares...), but they'll be similar to this.

Pac 20 West (Original Pac-10): USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State

Pac 20 East (Mostly Big 8/Big 12/SWC): Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, Colorado

In this arrangement, the Pac-10 goes back to playing they way they did before they expanded.  Everybody plays everyone like they always did in football and all other non-revenue sports.  In the East, six of the old Big 8 teams are back together, plus three Texas schools and Utah.  While Colorado may not be thrilled, no one in the Pac 20 would actually care.  It would keep a lot of the rivalries together that matter, and everyone would get to keep playing the teams they've grown to have rivalries with in the past 20 years. 

You'd get 9 division games. One game each year would be dedicated to playing someone from the other division.  You don't want too many cross-divisional games because at the end of the year, you want to have one big championship game that rivals the intensity of a major bowl game.

Imagine the winner of those East/West divisions playing a major championship game in Dallas, Phoenix, San Francisco, LA, San Diego, etc. every year.  They'd rotate between Dallas and some West Coast destination every other year.  If each conference had a similar set up, you have your 8 team playoff.  No one can tell me that Oregon/Oklahoma or USC/Texas...hell, even TCU/Oregon wouldn't be must see TV...

On the basketball side, you still get 18 conference games a year.  Nothing would change from your current configuration.  If you wanted to get crazy, you could add a couple of cross-divisional games each year for grins, one home/one away. 

But just think of the 18 team conference tournament that could be held in KC, OKC, Dallas, Vegas, LA, etc. every year...THAT would be a tournament worth watching.

Now, from a TV standpoint, this configuration wouldn't water any of the current contracts down.  The Big 12 and Pac-12 share very similar T1/T2 deals with ESPN and Fox.  In fact, we'd actually be shedding some games because we'd be dropping total content by two schools.  However, there's a lot of extra games that we could ultimately put on the Pac-20 network in football and basketball that would make it viable in a new reality.  Plus, the Pac 12 would expand it's footprint into the central time zone and into states with 40 million people in the population.  You could easily have wall to wall, live prime time basketball in the Central and Western time zones 7 days a week between the men and women.  It would be glorious.

This is the vision Larry Scott and Dan Beebe had before all Hell went loose.  But they just wanted to keep the conferences separate.  That was dumb.  Merge them.

It will be four 24 team conferences. In your PAC24 example, there will be an east and west division, each split north and south. Each 12 team division will act like the old B12 with the north and south champ playing in a East division championship, which will be round 1 of the new playoff system. Winner plays the West champion in round 2 for the PAC24 championship. The winners of the PAC24, SEC24, B1G24 and ACC24 will play each other in round 3 (semi's). Winners will play in the final.

The 96 teams will shake themselves out when schools will be allowed to pay the players a monthly stipend. Those that can't afford it will drop to FCS.

So what's going on now? Well, the B12 has started looking to expand behind closed doors. The targets are Cicny, East Carolina, and the Florida schools. OU president wanted to look more important than he is, so he got out I front of the cameras to flap his gums and look like the impetus of the whole thing.
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