Official Baylor vs K-State defacto Big 12 title game thread

[kso_FAN]

Post your football discussion thoughts here regarding this Saturday's big gridiron contest.

Tale of the tape (numbers courtesy of footballoutsiders.com) shows a pretty good match-up.





(my prediction will come later in the week)



The biggest advantage for Baylor is their offense vs our defense as they are better at every measured stat. K-State's offense vs Baylor's defense is pretty even, and K-State is better on special teams. The top chart shows the Cats at about a 30% chance of winning, which is probably about right.

[scottwildcat]

really hope we win, but those stats and charts make me feel slightly worse than i did before i opened this thread.

[Rage Against the McKee]

We have to jump out of the gates and hit them in the nose. Then we need to dismantle them piece by piece. If we want it more than they do, we should win.

[Winters]

Charts don't factor tapioca pudding brains tho

[CHONGS]

Hmmmmm, we actually have a slightly higher Adjusted Net Points Per Possession than Baylor.  Mostly due to (in principle) having a little bit better of a defense and having a few more offensive possessions per game than defensive possessions.

[Panjandrum]

As far as intangibles go, a part of me wonders if the combination of Bryce Aikman and the fact that Baylor probably needs to win with style points is going to hurt them.

I think, deep down, they know that TCU beat us by 21, so they need to so something similar to move past TCU.  Beating us by three won't cut it.

So, a part of me thinks that they're going to throw a lot more haymakers (and potentially more mistakes) because they're going to really try hard to blow us out.

On the flip side, I think Jake looked a lot healthier last week, and given this is the last "real" game of the year, I'm assuming (maybe hoping) Snyder is going to let him run more.

Anyway, I think the combination of everything put together puts a lot of pressure on the Bears to step up their game, similar to the Fiesta Bowl last year.  I think we really have nothing to lose (I mean best case scenario is realistically co-champs), so we may be a little looser.

All of that is intangible/subjective, but I think it may come into play.

[sonofdaxjones]

I can think of a play Baylor is likely going to run many more times than they normally do.

[kso_FAN]

Hmmmmm, we actually have a slightly higher Adjusted Net Points Per Possession than Baylor.  Mostly due to (in principle) having a little bit better of a defense and having a few more offensive possessions per game than defensive possessions.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-ppd/

Do you throw out garbage drives?

[kso_FAN]

As far as intangibles go, a part of me wonders if the combination of Bryce Aikman and the fact that Baylor probably needs to win with style points is going to hurt them.

I think, deep down, they know that TCU beat us by 21, so they need to so something similar to move past TCU.  Beating us by three won't cut it.

So, a part of me thinks that they're going to throw a lot more haymakers (and potentially more mistakes) because they're going to really try hard to blow us out.

On the flip side, I think Jake looked a lot healthier last week, and given this is the last "real" game of the year, I'm assuming (maybe hoping) Snyder is going to let him run more.

Anyway, I think the combination of everything put together puts a lot of pressure on the Bears to step up their game, similar to the Fiesta Bowl last year.  I think we really have nothing to lose (I mean best case scenario is realistically co-champs), so we may be a little looser.

All of that is intangible/subjective, but I think it may come into play.

I agree.

[sonofdaxjones]

Our RB's are simply awful.   I mean really, good RB's would have run all over ku on Saturday.   DRob looks like a block of ice trying to run the football he's so stiff, and lacks explosion through the hole.   That's just a big concern, because you know Bennett is going to load it up and force K-State to try and beat them through the air.   

[kso_FAN]

Our RB's are simply awful.   I mean really, good RB's would have run all over ku on Saturday.   DRob looks like a block of ice trying to run the football he's so stiff, and lacks explosion through the hole.   That's just a big concern, because you know Bennett is going to load it up and force K-State to try and beat them through the air.   

Yeah, I think it could be similar to the West Virginia game. It will come down to our ability to finish drives with TDs when we get into the redzone because I don't think our defense won't stop Baylor like we did WVU.

[TCUHornedFrog]

I have faith in little purple bro .  I think you guys can do it.

You need to play a similar defense that you did against us.  It will actually work this time because 'sketti brain Petty can't run like Boykin. 

Your offense will need to get their crap together.  You'll need to get some decent running plays going so you can go deep with Lockett over and over and over.

I'd say your chances of winning are 40%. 

[sonofdaxjones]

While watching the ku game I tried to think if K-State has ever had a worse RB corp under Snyder than what we have now and I couldn't think of any time when our top 2 RB's were any worse.   Jones has some potential but I think he's dinged up, there's just no pop, only a nominal amount of wiggle and that solely Jones.  The indecisiveness and the missing of holes is maddening.   DRob needs huge holes and a massive convoy of blockers to get anything done.   

[Panjandrum]

Our RB's are simply awful.   I mean really, good RB's would have run all over ku on Saturday.   DRob looks like a block of ice trying to run the football he's so stiff, and lacks explosion through the hole.   That's just a big concern, because you know Bennett is going to load it up and force K-State to try and beat them through the air.   

Yeah, I think it could be similar to the West Virginia game. It will come down to our ability to finish drives with TDs when we get into the redzone because I don't think our defense won't stop Baylor like we did WVU.

I think we can/will run with Jake this game.  I mean screw it.  It's just a shoulder.  It's not like he had a concussion or anything.

[CHONGS]

Hmmmmm, we actually have a slightly higher Adjusted Net Points Per Possession than Baylor.  Mostly due to (in principle) having a little bit better of a defense and having a few more offensive possessions per game than defensive possessions.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-ppd/

Do you throw out garbage drives?

I consider all games (not just FBS vs FBS) and I consider a possession to end in the following ways:
touchdown, field goal attempt, safety, interception, fumble lost, failed fourth down conversion, punt

there is almost certainly some error/noise here, but I figure it to be essentially a constant error that cancels out when adjusting to the average. I wish I had a better data source so I could easily track per possession data, but for now I can only use data from box scores essentially.  K-State generally has about 12 drives per game (using my definition) so a P/Ps of about 3 seems right.

[pissclams]

you have to consider the X factor, which  none of these fancy charts and stats seem to highlight
k-state owes the bears a strong kick in the nuts from the last time we played in waco
that kick will be strongly delivered on saturday night and the pain that the bears feel will be deep and throbbing. 

[TCUHornedFrog]

you have to consider the X factor, which  none of these fancy charts and stats seem to highlight
k-state owes the bears a strong kick in the nuts from the last time we played in waco
that kick will be strongly delivered on saturday night and the pain that the bears feel will be deep and throbbing.

I hope you are right for once.

[CHONGS]

FYI Baylor averages about 14 drives per game.

[cas4ksu]

We all know what Bennett is going to do on defense. Blitz after blitz after blitz.

I will say this much. If our offensive game plan doesn't involve any quick passes out wide to our receivers that make the Bears tackle Lockett, Sexton, and company out in space then our offensive coaches have failed to their job preparing the team.

I think Waters is already a little banged up. If we have him sitting back there waiting for long developing routes while they are bringing the heat than we are in trouble.

[Institutional Control]

FYI Baylor averages about 14 drives per game.

I'll take the under.

[kso_FAN]

Hmmmmm, we actually have a slightly higher Adjusted Net Points Per Possession than Baylor.  Mostly due to (in principle) having a little bit better of a defense and having a few more offensive possessions per game than defensive possessions.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-ppd/

Do you throw out garbage drives?

I consider all games (not just FBS vs FBS) and I consider a possession to end in the following ways:
touchdown, field goal attempt, safety, interception, fumble lost, failed fourth down conversion, punt

there is almost certainly some error/noise here, but I figure it to be essentially a constant error that cancels out when adjusting to the average. I wish I had a better data source so I could easily track per possession data, but for now I can only use data from box scores essentially.  K-State generally has about 12 drives per game (using my definition) so a P/Ps of about 3 seems right.

I think their definitions of a drive are the same, they just don't use FCS games and throw out garbage possessions and kneel downs.*

*The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

[Lefty]

Long time poster here. Does anyone notice how our receivers tend to run directly at a defender and refuse to deviate from the exact route? I noticed this against Baylor in '12 and it was maddening. Our receivers would literally run directly into a defender because the defender was in the way. The Baylor defenders would easily impede the timing without doing anything but stand there. I think Bennett gameplanned it this way and knew our receivers wouldn't adjust.

I know it sounds like a stupid talking point, but they did the same thing against TCU. TCU defenders were mauling us and our guys (minus TLBL) couldn't get open. Just a pro-tip to keep an eye on.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Hmmmmm, we actually have a slightly higher Adjusted Net Points Per Possession than Baylor.  Mostly due to (in principle) having a little bit better of a defense and having a few more offensive possessions per game than defensive possessions.

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-ppd/

Do you throw out garbage drives?

I consider all games (not just FBS vs FBS) and I consider a possession to end in the following ways:
touchdown, field goal attempt, safety, interception, fumble lost, failed fourth down conversion, punt

there is almost certainly some error/noise here, but I figure it to be essentially a constant error that cancels out when adjusting to the average. I wish I had a better data source so I could easily track per possession data, but for now I can only use data from box scores essentially.  K-State generally has about 12 drives per game (using my definition) so a P/Ps of about 3 seems right.

I think their definitions of a drive are the same, they just don't use FCS games and throw out garbage possessions and kneel downs.*

*The criteria for "garbage time" are as follows: a game is not within 28 points in the first quarter, 24 points in the second quarter, 21 points in the third quarter, or 16 points in the fourth quarter.

Throwing out possessions as "garbage time" in the first half seems sort of ridiculous to me.

[Steffy08]

Our RB's are simply awful.   I mean really, good RB's would have run all over ku on Saturday.   DRob looks like a block of ice trying to run the football he's so stiff, and lacks explosion through the hole.   That's just a big concern, because you know Bennett is going to load it up and force K-State to try and beat them through the air.

I hope Bennett loads the box.  That would be a gift.  There is no reason for him to do so.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I bet Bennett blitzes like 70% of the time. I just hope Jake can handle the heat as well as he is capable of and we can strike Phil's defense lightning-quick.