I broke it down for us guys
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Note, here are the tiebreakers. FIFA resolves ties in the group stage in the following order: goal differential, goals scored, head-to-head results. (Eventually, it gets down to drawing lots.)
- Goal differential:
- US = scored 4, allowed 3, differential = +1
- Ghana = scored 3, allowed 4, differential = -1
- Portugal = scored 2, allowed 6, differential = -4
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Here are the scenarios for the U.S. to advance in the World Cup.
If the U.S. loses, the "safest" route is for Portugal to win as it allows more differential for the U.S. So, root for Portugal on Thursday and for them to win by a margin less than what the U.S. loses (if the U.S. loses).
US advances if:
- US win or draw against Germany
- US loss and:
- Purtugal/Ghana draw, or
- Ghana wins:
- US advances if US loses by 1 and Ghana wins by 1 and US scores at least 1 fewer goal than Ghana
- (same diff, more goals or head-to-head)
- (e.g. Ghana scores 3, US must score at least 2)
- If US loses by 1 and Ghana wins by 1 and US scores 2 goals less than Ghana ==> US does not advance
- Ghana wins by 2 ==> US does not advance
- Portugal wins:
- US advances if the US loss margin plus the Portugal win margin is < 5 (goal diff)
- If the US loss margin plus the Portugal win margin is = 5,
- US advances if US scores at least 1 fewer goal than Portugal
- (more goals)
- (e.g. Portugal scores 3, US must score at least 2)
- If the US loss margin plus the Portugal win margin is = 5, and US scores 2 less goals than Portugal
- US advances if it wins the lot (coin flip)
- (e.g. Portugal scores 3, US scores 1)
- If the US loss margin plus the Portugal win margin is > 5, US does not advance
