for those looking to bet nfl this weekend:
detroit have played 6 games vs teams with defenses ranked in the bottom half of the snowbrag. they've scored at least 40 points in 5 of those 6 games. washington's defense is ranked #26
of course this is baked into the vegas total (an outrageous 55.5), but the over is tempting, because i kind of feel like dan campbell doesn't believe in keeping the cards close to the vest.
official snowbrag predicto:
#16 washington 23
#1 detroit 30
vegas: detroit -8.5, o/u 55.5
just for fun, i also have snowbrag produce more "unhinged" predictos, based purely on final scores of all previous games of both teams, then adjusted as if all games had been played against the current opponent. the adjusted off/def scores are then averaged for both teams. most of the time it's pretty close to the official but sometimes they get wonky when you have an extreme offense vs defense quality discrepancy. anyway here's that predicto:
washington 24
detroit 45
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#10 la rams 20
#5 philadelphia 25
vegas: phi -6, o/u 43.5
"unhinged" snowbrag:
la rams 17
philadelphia 23
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#2 baltimore 25.5
#6 buffalo 26
vegas: baltimore -1.5, o/u 51.5
"unhinged" snowbrag:
baltimore 37
buffalo 30
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#14 houston 20
#4 kansas city 24
vegas: kansas city -8.5, o/u 41.5
"unhinged" snowbrag:
houston 15
kansas city 21
