Author Topic: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread  (Read 429361 times)

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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #275 on: July 27, 2013, 09:12:12 PM »

Ludwig Von Mises and Ayn Rand have quite a bit in common.  Which was the bloggers point.   

Mises was an anarcho capitalist; Ayn Rand believed in extremely limited government.    Therefore, if anarcho capitalism is right wing, then the tea party are nothing but a bunch of pinko's.

You are terrible at logic.  Your first sentence matches what I said your second sentence was a non-sequitor.  I can see why you like reading random self-proclaimed experts.

I don't think you know what a non-sequitur is, nor do you know what anarcho capitalism is.  Perhaps you could form some more run on sentences to attack my intellect though.

lol

Offline sys

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #276 on: July 28, 2013, 12:50:53 AM »
Doesn't matter whether its real or not. There has been no legitimate (read: non-insane) solution or trade-off suggested for what we should do to combat any of it.

i posted the solution about a week ago.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #277 on: July 28, 2013, 02:43:33 AM »
yep. Like to read. Not this.
aren't you glad it wasn't you? - g.h.

Offline yoman

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I think this yoman guy is on to something....

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #279 on: July 31, 2013, 11:01:40 AM »
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/07/25/newser-north-pole-lake/2586469/

This could be a thing.

Isn't this the thing that is actually 375 miles south of the north pole because of drifting ice/camera location?  But is being mistakenly reported as the north pole?

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #280 on: July 31, 2013, 12:20:27 PM »
http://www.jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1

Our analyses do not indicate acceleration in sea level in U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century. Instead, for each time period we consider, the records show small decelerations that are consistent with a number of earlier studies of worldwide-gauge records. The decelerations that we obtain are opposite in sign and one to two orders of magnitude less than the+0.07 to+0.28 mm/y2 accelerations that are required toreach sea levels predicted for 2100 by Vermeer and Rahmsdorf (2009), Jevrejeva, Moore, and Grinsted (2010), and Grinsted,
 Moore, and Jevrejeva (2010).

Offline OregonSmock

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Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #282 on: July 31, 2013, 01:32:26 PM »
NOAA a politicized gov't agency in every sense of the word is not the be all and end all on the topic.   


Offline husserl

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #283 on: July 31, 2013, 01:33:46 PM »
http://www.jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1

Our analyses do not indicate acceleration in sea level in U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century. Instead, for each time period we consider, the records show small decelerations that are consistent with a number of earlier studies of worldwide-gauge records. The decelerations that we obtain are opposite in sign and one to two orders of magnitude less than the+0.07 to+0.28 mm/y2 accelerations that are required toreach sea levels predicted for 2100 by Vermeer and Rahmsdorf (2009), Jevrejeva, Moore, and Grinsted (2010), and Grinsted,
 Moore, and Jevrejeva (2010).

http://jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-11-00082.1

A recent article published in the Journal of Coastal Research analysed a number of different sea-level records and
reported that they found no acceleration of sea-level rise. We show that this is due to their focusing on records that are
either too short or only regional in character, and on their specific focus on acceleration since the year 1930, which
represents a unique minimum in the acceleration curve. We find that global sea-level rise is accelerating in a way
strongly correlated with global temperature. This correlation also explains the acceleration minimum for time periods
starting around 1930; it is due to the mid-twentieth-century plateau in global temperature.



Online john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #284 on: July 31, 2013, 01:35:29 PM »
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

How does the sea level go way down in the same area where it is trending up? Looks like measuring sea level in fractions of millimeters is a ridiculous exercise. Damn ocean water won't stay still!

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #285 on: July 31, 2013, 01:59:31 PM »
http://www.jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1

Our analyses do not indicate acceleration in sea level in U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century. Instead, for each time period we consider, the records show small decelerations that are consistent with a number of earlier studies of worldwide-gauge records. The decelerations that we obtain are opposite in sign and one to two orders of magnitude less than the+0.07 to+0.28 mm/y2 accelerations that are required toreach sea levels predicted for 2100 by Vermeer and Rahmsdorf (2009), Jevrejeva, Moore, and Grinsted (2010), and Grinsted,
 Moore, and Jevrejeva (2010).

http://jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-11-00082.1

A recent article published in the Journal of Coastal Research analysed a number of different sea-level records and
reported that they found no acceleration of sea-level rise. We show that this is due to their focusing on records that are
either too short or only regional in character, and on their specific focus on acceleration since the year 1930, which
represents a unique minimum in the acceleration curve. We find that global sea-level rise is accelerating in a way
strongly correlated with global temperature. This correlation also explains the acceleration minimum for time periods
starting around 1930; it is due to the mid-twentieth-century plateau in global temperature.


If you follow climate research you'll find claims about others research all over the place . . . data sets are too: big, small, local, regonal, global, flawed etc. etc.

What the conclusion really is, it's a really complex topic and so to claim some sort of scientific consensus is, in a word, aburd and frankly anti-scientific.




Online john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #286 on: July 31, 2013, 02:00:49 PM »
Hmmmm, I see a trend.


Offline star seed 7

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #287 on: July 31, 2013, 02:03:50 PM »
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

How does the sea level go way down in the same area where it is trending up? Looks like measuring sea level in fractions of millimeters is a ridiculous exercise. Damn ocean water won't stay still!

This post made me smile  :D

Damn ocean water!    :lol:
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline 8manpick

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Re: Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #288 on: July 31, 2013, 11:05:02 PM »
Hmmmm, I see a trend.


DNR almost all of this thread, but this chart says right on it that the linear trend (up? down? Who knows?) is removed... So what's the point?
:adios:

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #289 on: August 01, 2013, 10:41:20 AM »
It's the seasonal trend that's removed.

Online john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #290 on: August 03, 2013, 03:16:06 PM »
This abstract of a recent scientific study seems a much more plausible explanation of global temperature increase than the short term reasoning of CO2 emissions.

Quote
Are Global Mean Temperatures Significantly Affected by Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides?

Ian R. G. Wilson1
1Liverpool Plains Daytime Astronomy Centre, Curlewis, NSW, Australia

Abstract
Wilson and Sidorenkov find that there are four extended pressure features in the summer (DJF) mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) anomaly maps that are centred between 30 and 50° S and separated from each other by approximately 90° in longitude. In addition, they show that, over the period from 1947 to 1994, these patterns drift westward in longitude at rates that produce circumnavigation times that match the 18.6 year lunar Draconic cycle. These type of pressure anomaly pattern naturally produce large extended regions of abnormal atmospheric pressure that pass over the semi-permanent South Pacific sub-tropical high roughly once every ~ 4.5 years. These moving regions of higher/lower than normal atmospheric pressure increase/decrease the MSLP of the semi-permanent high pressure system, temporarily increasing/reducing the strength of the East-Pacific trade winds. This leads to conditions that preferentially favor the onset of La Niña/El Niño events that last for approximately 30 years. Wilson and Sidorenkov find that the pressure of the moving anomaly pattern changes in such a way as to favor La Niña over El Niño events between 1947 and 1970 and favor El Niño over La Niña events between 1971 and 1994. This is in agreement with the observed evolution of the El Niño/ La Niña events during the latter part of the 20th century. They speculate that the transition of the pattern from a positive to a negative pressure anomaly follows a 31/62/93/186 year lunar tidal cycle that results from the long-term interaction between the Perigee-Syzygy and Draconic lunar tidal cycles. Hence, the IPCC needs to take into consideration the possibility that long term Lunar atmospheric tides could be acting as a trigger to favor either El Niño or La Niña conditions and that these changes in the relative frequency of these two type of events could be responsible for much of the observed changes in the world mean temperature during the 20th century.

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #291 on: August 03, 2013, 03:34:31 PM »
john doug, why can't you just accept that humans are contributing to climate change?  Do you really think that emitting hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 and other greenhouse gases on an annual basis wouldn't effect the Earth?

Offline p1k3

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #292 on: August 03, 2013, 03:35:11 PM »
blame trees, imo.

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #293 on: August 03, 2013, 03:35:51 PM »

Offline p1k3

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #294 on: August 03, 2013, 03:39:29 PM »
blame trees, imo.


wut

sorry i've been drinking. Mods delete thread thx

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #295 on: August 03, 2013, 04:42:40 PM »
john doug, why can't you just accept that humans are contributing to climate change?  Do you really think that emitting hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 and other greenhouse gases on an annual basis wouldn't effect the Earth?

I don't necessarily discount that CO2 emissions do in some way affect the well being of the atmosphere, I just don't subscribe to the dire warnings of coming disasters, and in turn, the money grab of the federal and state governments. There are much larger variables in play that are conveniently ignored.

If governments around the world were serious about getting us off oil and other fossil fuels, they would put up a prize in the form of a world wide patent and royalties for the first true renewable fuel that is economically feasible to power vehicles and power plants. They would also give tax credits to those companies and individuals for any money spent during proven research and development until the winner is chosen. We just might get a car that runs on salt water.

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #296 on: August 04, 2013, 01:16:56 AM »

If governments around the world were serious about getting us off oil and other fossil fuels, they would put up a prize in the form of a world wide patent and royalties for the first true renewable fuel that is economically feasible to power vehicles and power plants. They would also give tax credits to those companies and individuals for any money spent during proven research and development until the winner is chosen. We just might get a car that runs on salt water.

What part of this statement is not the case currently?

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #297 on: August 04, 2013, 11:25:41 AM »

If governments around the world were serious about getting us off oil and other fossil fuels, they would put up a prize in the form of a world wide patent and royalties for the first true renewable fuel that is economically feasible to power vehicles and power plants. They would also give tax credits to those companies and individuals for any money spent during proven research and development until the winner is chosen. We just might get a car that runs on salt water.

What part of this statement is not the case currently?

Probably going to need that one world government first.

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