Wrong thread, maybe?, but I find it hard to believe CTC in it's new form has strong incentives to have more children.
i mean it's obviously an incentive to have children. i think what you're really arguing that it's not a very strong incentive and wouldn't result in a meaningfully higher birth rate.
and, maybe? afaik, no one is trying to address that question as either a negative or positive.
just looking at it intuitively, i'm not worried about the temporary version offering a meaningful incentive. i think people understand that it is too uncertain to impact choices. if it were made permanent, we're talking like what 50k over a child's minority? something like that? my guess is that that sort of money isn't going to induce a couple that doesn't want children to rear one, but it might well induce a katkid or a michigancat to go ahead and have that 9th child that they currently think they can't afford.
at any rate, i'd certainly like to see the question addressed with data before we start shoveling cash in the wrong direction.