that article leads me to believe if the entire planet cut off 100% of fossil fuels tomorrow cold turkey, we'd still be F'd
This is the biggest thing...
What follows is not a series of predictions of what will happen — that will be determined in large part by the much-less-certain science of human response. Instead, it is a portrait of our best understanding of where the planet is heading absent aggressive action. It is unlikely that all of these warming scenarios will be fully realized, largely because the devastation along the way will shake our complacency. But those scenarios, and not the present climate, are the baseline. In fact, they are our schedule.
There have been some good signs lately in terms of action. The G20, minus us, reaffirmed their commitment to Paris, and most signs point to market forces and state/local action helping us meet (and possibly exceed) our targets. Morgan Stanley just did research and found that by 2020, renewables will be the cheapest form of energy there is.* Tesla is providing a new battery in South Australia that may help provide much better storage for renewables. Volvo made the decision to go all electric/hybrid, Tesla released the Model 3, and some estmates are that at least 1/3 of all cars on the road will be fully electric by 2040.
It's not enough, right now, but there's positive momentum. I've read some other analysts who say we're underestimating how fast solar is going to grow. So, I'm hopeful.
A 2 degree rise is likely to happen. There isn't much that can stop that unless we find ways to extract carbon. If you believe like a lot of futurists do (i.e. Kurzwell, Burke), we'll be hitting that technological singularity in the middle of the 21st century, and nanotech can help us reverse some of the negative effects of climate change. While NASA, SpaceX, and others continue to work on a Mars colony, what we learn from trying to terraform Mars can be used here on some scale. A lot of these things all come to a head between 2040-2050 by most estimates, which is when some MIT research from earlier this year says we need to be well on the road to zero carbon.
Also, the amount of carbon is a sliding scale if we're able to reduce methane, etc.
I think what the NY Mag put out there serves a purpose, and that's to try and spur some action, but I think we'll ultimately be alright on some level. There's no time to procrastinate, but I don't think most are. Ultimately, what Trump, Republicans, etc. are trying to do with fossil fuels right now will ultimately fail. There's no going back now. We've reached a confluence where most of the world sees an existential threat, business sees an economic threat, and governments see a host of very expensive problems that only get more expensive if they don't act now.
*
http://www.businessinsider.com/solar-power-energy-renewables-cheapest-power-says-morgan-stanley-2017-7
