Author Topic: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread  (Read 429398 times)

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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #625 on: May 07, 2014, 11:15:04 AM »
Cong. Tim Huelskamp ?@CongHuelskamp  16h
King Obama to strike again with his #pen&phone. Forget the Constitution. Raze the Clean Air Act. Chicago style http://goo.gl/STFllX

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #626 on: May 07, 2014, 11:41:21 AM »
I think there are a lot of us out there that perhaps don't believe 100% in man made climate change, but are willing to take action anyway (sometimes because it's for a greater economic good).  But I've never heard anyone put forth a solid plan of how to get other countries with whom we compete economically to take identical actions so that we are not even further disadvantaged. 

Offline EllRobersonisInnocent

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #627 on: May 07, 2014, 12:29:37 PM »
I think there are a lot of us out there that perhaps don't believe 100% in man made climate change, but are willing to take action anyway (sometimes because it's for a greater economic good).  But I've never heard anyone put forth a solid plan of how to get other countries with whom we compete economically to take identical actions so that we are not even further disadvantaged.

Well you should, because it's 100% true.

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #628 on: May 07, 2014, 12:54:38 PM »
I think there are a lot of us out there that perhaps don't believe 100% in man made climate change, but are willing to take action anyway (sometimes because it's for a greater economic good).  But I've never heard anyone put forth a solid plan of how to get other countries with whom we compete economically to take identical actions so that we are not even further disadvantaged.

Well you should, because it's 100% true.

There has been no global warming since you were in kindergarten.

Offline bubbles4ksu

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #629 on: May 07, 2014, 01:01:26 PM »
March marked the 38th consecutive March and 349th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average. The last below-average temperature for March was in 1976 and the last below-average temperature for any month was February 1985.

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #630 on: May 07, 2014, 01:11:00 PM »
Okay, whatever guys, what next?

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #631 on: May 07, 2014, 01:15:14 PM »
If you plot these numbers from the RSS satellite data, you'll see that the temperature trend is flat since Aug of 1996.

http://data.remss.com/MSU/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TTT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

Global warming studies and modeling is a $2.6 billion dollar a year government funded industry. Do you think any scientist on the dole is going to try and stop that gravy train?

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #632 on: May 07, 2014, 01:19:34 PM »
wait, the gov spends $2.6 billion to pay people to tell them the planet is getting hotter?

link?

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #633 on: May 07, 2014, 01:24:08 PM »
I think there are a lot of us out there that perhaps don't believe 100% in man made climate change, but are willing to take action anyway (sometimes because it's for a greater economic good).  But I've never heard anyone put forth a solid plan of how to get other countries with whom we compete economically to take identical actions so that we are not even further disadvantaged.

Well you should, because it's 100% true.

There has been no global warming since you were in kindergarten.


That's just simply not true.  Just because climate change temperature anomalies don't follow a perfectly linear pattern doesn't mean there isn't a general warming trend.  2012 was the hottest year on record for the United States.


http://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth%E2%80%99s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade



« Last Edit: May 07, 2014, 02:54:25 PM by OregonSmock »

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Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #635 on: May 07, 2014, 01:50:10 PM »

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #637 on: May 07, 2014, 02:24:14 PM »



Do you even understand why this graph is deceiving?  It's taking the biggest anomaly of a warming trend, and comparing it to the next 15+ years, which are also some of the hottest years on record.  Again, this is how it looks over the course of 100+ years:




« Last Edit: May 07, 2014, 02:55:12 PM by OregonSmock »

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #639 on: May 07, 2014, 02:26:18 PM »
FTR, I don't think beems understands why the graph is deceiving, either.

Offline Emo EMAW

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #640 on: May 07, 2014, 02:30:41 PM »
FTR, I don't think beems understands why the graph is deceiving, either.

x2

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #641 on: May 07, 2014, 02:33:23 PM »
FTR, I don't think beems understands why the graph is deceiving, either.


I don't think you're smart enough to understand what I'm talking about.  Perhaps this will help:

Quote
At the time, 1998 was a record high year in both the CRU and the NASA GISS analyses. In fact, it blew away the previous record by .2 degrees C. (That previous record went all the way back to 1997, by the way!)

According to NASA, it was elevated far above the trend line because 1998 was the year of the strongest El Nino of the century. Choosing that year as a starting point is a classic cherry pick and demonstrates why it is necessary to remove chaotic year-to year-variability (aka: weather) by smoothing out the data. Looking at CRU’s graph below, you can see the result of that smoothing in black.



Quote
Clearly 1998 is an anomaly and the trend has not reversed. (Even the apparent leveling at the end is not the real smoothing. The smoothed trend in 2005 depends on all of its surrounding years, including a few years still in the future.) By the way, choosing the CRU analysis is also a cherry pick — NASA has 2005 breaking the 1998 record, though by very little.

« Last Edit: May 07, 2014, 02:36:45 PM by OregonSmock »

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #642 on: May 07, 2014, 02:40:45 PM »
FTR, I don't think beems understands why the graph is deceiving, either.


I don't think you're smart enough to understand what I'm talking about.

Look at where the trendline is and what it is measuring.

Offline OregonSmock

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #643 on: May 07, 2014, 02:43:26 PM »
FTR, I don't think beems understands why the graph is deceiving, either.


I don't think you're smart enough to understand what I'm talking about.

Look at where the trendline is and what it is measuring.


It's measuring the highest deviation from the mean.  I changed the language from "highest point" to "largest anomaly," if that makes you feel better.

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #644 on: May 07, 2014, 02:57:19 PM »
Beems, it's no different than your graph, just a shorter period of time. If you were to plot actual average temperatures from 1850 to now, It would be a straight horizontal line. Anomaly charts are meant to be deceiving to the average person.

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #645 on: May 07, 2014, 03:07:59 PM »
If it is crazy hot this summer I will join team global warming.  you hear that god/jesus?  Let's keep it mild down here.

Offline _33

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #646 on: May 07, 2014, 03:16:09 PM »
Every time it's super hot and I'm having to mow the yard I curse global warming and then every time it's freezing cold and I'm having to shovel the driveway I scoff at its existence.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #647 on: May 07, 2014, 03:19:28 PM »
Somebody should take all this talk and use it as a script for the movie "Coal's Not Dead".

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #648 on: May 07, 2014, 03:32:05 PM »
Beems, it's no different than your graph, just a shorter period of time. If you were to plot actual average temperatures from 1850 to now, It would be a straight horizontal line. Anomaly charts are meant to be deceiving to the average person.


No, it wouldn't.  The "anomalies" are showing the deviation from historical average temperatures to actual temperatures.  You are a complete fool if you really believe that the industrial age has had no impact on our climate.

I'm not saying it has had no affect, I just don't subscribe to the hysteria that liberals are pushing to raise taxes and redistribute wealth. I'm all for reducing emissions over time as the technology permits, but to push technology that isn't ready is foolish and extremely expensive for very little gain.

Also, until China, India, and the other developing countries are held to the same standard as the US and Europe, anything we do is almost negligible on the global scale. The Government needs incentives for private industry to develop cleaner industrial processes with tax incentives rather than punitive fines and regulations. Those simply kill manufacturing in this country and push them to countries that have no clean air standard.   


Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #649 on: May 07, 2014, 03:35:40 PM »
I see both sides to the argument but, by far, the strongest one is that the Bible says we should not allow environmentalism to turn into idolatry.  I was going to build a golden scientist for my family to worship.