Author Topic: The Scott Pruitt "If the models are all wrong" thread  (Read 429251 times)

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 7626
  • 1cat
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #550 on: January 28, 2014, 02:29:27 PM »
If you add up the ag, pasture, and urban land use, it comes up to about the 43% sys used. 8.9 billion by 2050  :sdeek:

http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/22/12/article/i1052-5173-22-12-4.htm


Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #551 on: January 28, 2014, 03:04:50 PM »
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline michigancat

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 53674
  • change your stupid avatar.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #552 on: January 28, 2014, 03:11:02 PM »
If you add up the ag, pasture, and urban land use, it comes up to about the 43% sys used. 8.9 billion by 2050  :sdeek:

http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/22/12/article/i1052-5173-22-12-4.htm



Looks like it's actually 51%:

http://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/22/12/table/i1052-5173-22-12-4-T01.pdf

Although almost half of that total is "Permanent meadows and pastures (mostly uncultivated)".

I think changes in diet could really improve the efficiency of cultivated land. A very high percentage of grain grown (especially in the US) goes to feed livestock:

http://www.earth-policy.org/data_highlights/2011/highlights22

Offline Emo EMAW

  • PCKK7DC Survivor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *******
  • Posts: 17891
  • Unrepentant traditional emobro
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #553 on: January 28, 2014, 03:16:37 PM »
You don't say Rusty.

Offline puniraptor

  • Tastemaker
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 21335
  • nostalgic reason
    • View Profile

Offline Mr Bread

  • We Gave You Bruce
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 7867
  • I've distressing news.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #555 on: January 29, 2014, 11:59:25 AM »
The Ever-Persistent, Always-Destructive Myth of Overpopulation

I do appreciate that they mock the doomsday overpopulation folks throughout history for their flawed projections, yet they proudly trot out their own that population will peak and them decline.  Myth!?
My prescience is fully engorged.  It throbs with righteous accuracy.  I am sated.

Offline Mr Bread

  • We Gave You Bruce
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 7867
  • I've distressing news.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #556 on: January 29, 2014, 12:04:58 PM »
Objectively, how close are we (humans on earth) to overpopulated?

Can't really say.

ho hum
My prescience is fully engorged.  It throbs with righteous accuracy.  I am sated.

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 7626
  • 1cat
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #557 on: January 29, 2014, 01:31:04 PM »
Is overpopulation going to become (or already) a liberal vs conservative thing?

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #558 on: January 29, 2014, 08:02:52 PM »
Is overpopulation going to become (or already) a liberal vs conservative thing?

if enough people ever start to care about it, it will.  people now just need to be careful not to advocate a position their party affiliation will force them to abandon.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Stupid Fitz

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 4659
  • Go Cats
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #559 on: January 30, 2014, 02:05:02 PM »
It's over fellas. I just saw that NASA gif thingy where the giant orange blob has been overtaking us for the last 6 years. It has been an honor friends.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 10040
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #560 on: January 30, 2014, 04:34:10 PM »
Is overpopulation going to become (or already) a liberal vs conservative thing?

if enough people ever start to care about it, it will.  people now just need to be careful not to advocate a position their party affiliation will force them to abandon.

Wait - so are conservatives supposed to believe in this crap, or not?

And wasn't this a big thing back in the 60s? I think they predicted the world would be some sort of zombie apocalypse by the 80s.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37048
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #561 on: January 30, 2014, 04:43:47 PM »
Is overpopulation going to become (or already) a liberal vs conservative thing?

if enough people ever start to care about it, it will.  people now just need to be careful not to advocate a position their party affiliation will force them to abandon.

Wait - so are conservatives supposed to believe in this crap, or not?

And wasn't this a big thing back in the 60s? I think they predicted the world would be some sort of zombie apocalypse by the 80s.

Well, I certainly believe that the population of the earth will continue to increase until we no longer have ample food and resources to facilitate that growth, but you are free to believe whatever fantasy you like.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #562 on: January 30, 2014, 04:48:05 PM »
I certainly believe that the population of the earth will continue to increase until we no longer have ample food and resources to facilitate that growth.

a lot of the newer projections are predicting that population growth will abate and either plateau or decline.  don't recall well, but i think around 2050 or so.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #563 on: January 30, 2014, 04:49:29 PM »
Wait - so are conservatives supposed to believe in this crap, or not?

you'll have to wait until you're told what to think, just like everyone else.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37048
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #564 on: January 30, 2014, 04:53:42 PM »
I certainly believe that the population of the earth will continue to increase until we no longer have ample food and resources to facilitate that growth.

a lot of the newer projections are predicting that population growth will abate and either plateau or decline.  don't recall well, but i think around 2050 or so.

What is the reasoning for the plateau, though? The projections that I have seen would make the 2050 populations pretty hard to feed without a renewed interest in farming coupled with some pretty radical advances in ag technology.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #565 on: January 30, 2014, 04:59:06 PM »
What is the reasoning for the plateau, though?

declining birth rates in developing countries.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37048
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #566 on: January 30, 2014, 05:11:11 PM »
What is the reasoning for the plateau, though?

declining birth rates in developing countries.

That seems like a pretty big leap in logic to me, but I hope they are right.

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

  • Racist Piece of Shit
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 18431
  • Kiss my ass and suck my dick
    • View Profile
    • I am the one and only Sugar Dick
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #567 on: January 30, 2014, 09:22:30 PM »
What is the reasoning for the plateau, though?

declining birth rates in developing countries.

That seems like a pretty big leap in logic to me, but I hope they are right.

Declining birth rates in developed countries is a fact. If an country is developing, its a pretty safe bet its birth rate will decline.
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline Rage Against the McKee

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 37048
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #568 on: January 30, 2014, 09:29:58 PM »
What is the reasoning for the plateau, though?

declining birth rates in developing countries.

That seems like a pretty big leap in logic to me, but I hope they are right.

Declining birth rates in developed countries is a fact. If an country is developing, its a pretty safe bet its birth rate will decline.

I'm not saying it's not going to happen. I'm just saying that a model that relies on a change in human behavior seems a whole lot less reliable than a model that relies on a proven scientific theory being accurate.

Can you give an example of a developing country that is going to be fully developed in 30 years?

Offline Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)

  • Racist Piece of Shit
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 18431
  • Kiss my ass and suck my dick
    • View Profile
    • I am the one and only Sugar Dick
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #569 on: January 30, 2014, 09:35:21 PM »
What is the reasoning for the plateau, though?

declining birth rates in developing countries.

That seems like a pretty big leap in logic to me, but I hope they are right.

Declining birth rates in developed countries is a fact. If an country is developing, its a pretty safe bet its birth rate will decline.

I'm not saying it's not going to happen. I'm just saying that a model that relies on a change in human behavior seems a whole lot less reliable than a model that relies on a proven scientific theory being accurate.

Can you give an example of a developing country that is going to be fully developed in 30 years?

We'll find out in 30 years, its just a projection like "the models"
goEMAW Karmic BBS Shepherd

Offline CHONGS

  • Master of the Atom
  • Administrator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 19381
    • View Profile
    • goEMAW.com
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #570 on: January 30, 2014, 09:36:14 PM »
Wait - so are conservatives supposed to believe in this crap, or not?

you'll have to wait until you're told what to think, just like everyone else.
just a fantastic response... Goddamn  sys I salute you.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 10040
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #572 on: January 31, 2014, 08:12:18 AM »
This is what I was thinking of. 1968. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb :runaway:

I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 10040
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #573 on: January 31, 2014, 08:13:59 AM »
Wait - so are conservatives supposed to believe in this crap, or not?

you'll have to wait until you're told what to think, just like everyone else.

I'll go ahead and assume that conservatives aren't going to subscribe to this latest knee-jerk hysteria. If some of them do, I'll just call them RINOs.
I've said it before and I'll say it again, K-State fans could have beheaded the entire KU team at midcourt, and K-State fans would be celebrating it this morning.  They are the ISIS of Big 12 fanbases.

Offline sys

  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 40472
  • your reputation will never recover, nor should it.
    • View Profile
Re: If the models are all wrong
« Reply #574 on: February 06, 2014, 02:08:20 PM »
coulda gone in the investing thread, i'm putting it here.


http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/GMO_QtlyLetter_ALL_4Q2013.pdf
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."