Things to watch...
2PT%
In the first two games KU shot .515 and .541 on 2s. We shot .407 and .387. Plus they shot 12 more 2PT shots combined. KU destroyed us in points in the paint. As a result, KU shot over 7% better (eFG%) in both games. I'm fine with us shooting fewer 2s, but we've got to at least get into the mid 40s and hold them under 50. This may be our toughest task of the night.
As for 3s, K-State actually shot pretty well in Lawrence (.421), but only had 19 attempts on 50 shots (3PTA% of .380). Plus, we were so bad in so many other areas it didn't matter. K-State featured a much higher attempt% in Manhattan (.526), but we only made .300. Again, the difference in 2PT% was just a big of a factor with those numbers, but K-State probably needs 40% of our shots to be threes and to make 40% to win (10-24 from 3 or so).
Oboarding
KU won the boarding battle in both games and destroyed us on OR% in Lawrence (.452 - .182). Combined the margin was .407 to .235. However, since the game in Lawrence K-State has had an OR% of at least .346 in 7 out of 8 games and our worst OR% night was .325 (our loss in Stillwater). K-State doesn't necessarily have to win this battle (if we make 3s), but must at least keep things even. For actual numbers, keeping KU around 10 and getting ours to around 12 oboards would be ideal.
Turnovers
K-State won the battle on TOs in Manhattan and was even in Lawrence, but to win the game K-State probably needs to get to at least our average (+4% in TO% differential), so 10 or fewer for us and 13 or more for them if the pace is the low 60s (which is where we want it).
Free throws
Besides 3PT shooting, this was the other thing K-State did well in Lawrence, but again it didn't matter. The emphasis on attacking the lane carried over to 2PT% which KU destroyed us on. May as well continue running offense and generating better jumpers with occasionally attacks at the rim from Angel or Rod and maybe a few attempts for JO and Gip. Just make sure they don't get more than a 15% advantage (10-12 attempts for us, 18-20 for KU) in FTr and we should be good.
I want to pick us to win, but I've been burnt too many times. I think it will be like the game in Manhattan (low pace, but with better shooting) but in the end KU pulls away. My key is just to not let the game get away like it did in Lawrence. I think at this point we have a legit shot at a 3 even with a loss, as long as KU doesn't beat us by 20 or something ridiculous, which possibly could sway the committee a bit on putting us on the 3 line.
Hawks 70 - Cats 64
