Author Topic: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV  (Read 6575 times)

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Offline kso_FAN

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ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« on: February 23, 2013, 09:40:48 PM »
1st   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   33   1.23   46.9%   21.5%   50.0%   37.5%
Opp   33   0.98   50.0%   18.4%   25.0%   104.8%

2nd   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   30   1.34   70.5%   19.7%   22.2%   45.5%
Opp   30   1.21   50.0%   19.7%   56.3%   37.9%

Total   Pace   PPP   eFG%   TO%   OR%   FTR
KSU   64   1.27   56.5%   20.5%   41.4%   40.7%
Opp   64   1.09   50.0%   18.9%   38.9%   66.0%

Make a bunch of 3s. Get oboards. Despite being out FT rated, hit 91% on FTs to still win the FT line advantage.

All that adds up to another win against Texas.

And another weekend of first place Cats.


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Offline meow meow

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2013, 09:43:55 PM »
How do you come up with these thread titles so fast  :D

Offline Boondock Poonhound

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2013, 09:49:38 PM »
 :thumbsup:

 :emawkid:

 :alleyoop:

 :ksu:  >   :kstategrad:
"He's in Shape !"

Offline Powercat Posse

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2013, 10:06:07 PM »
Last 8 gms--

1.17 ppp
 79.1% FT
42.4% 3pt

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #4 on: February 23, 2013, 10:10:11 PM »
Bottom of the box scores...

PTs in paint: 36-24 UT
PTs off TOs: 18-15 UT
2nd chance: 10-7 UT
Fast break: 14-9 UT

Hitting 50% from 3 and 91% on FTs makes up for a lot.

catzacker

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #5 on: February 23, 2013, 11:49:10 PM »
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

Offline sys

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #6 on: February 23, 2013, 11:51:02 PM »
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

kstate just didn't care in the 2nd half, 'zacker.  why should they have?
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

catzacker

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2013, 12:18:29 AM »
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

kstate just didn't care in the 2nd half, 'zacker.  why should they have?

Texas' first half PPP of .98 is higher than their season PPP avg of .93


Offline sys

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2013, 12:39:23 AM »
Texas' first half PPP of .98 is higher than their season PPP avg of .93

yeah, kstate's defense isn't very good.  we're raining threes instead.  enjoy.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline kim carnes

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2013, 12:57:40 AM »
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

kstate just didn't care in the 2nd half, 'zacker.  why should they have?

Texas' first half PPP of .98 is higher than their season PPP avg of .93

What is their PPP at home?

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2013, 08:22:02 AM »
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

Should I interpret as a normal zacker post to stir the pot, or is this legitimately a "I don't like how we win even though we're winning a lot the same way" post?

:dunno:

Offline steve dave

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2013, 08:24:59 AM »
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2013, 08:27:28 AM »
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

Its really fun to see Shane or Rod or Tay or Angel or Will (EVEN WILL) chuck a three and be almost certain its going in.

Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

Offline KITNfury

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2013, 09:09:22 AM »
I thought I would hate the new way we play. I don't. I love shooting well.

Its really fun to see Shane or Rod or Tay or Angel or Will (EVEN WILL) chuck a three and be almost certain its going in.

Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.
I used to cringe when Shane shot the ball, now he' s a bonafied boss
I once blew clove smoke in a guy's face that cut in front of me in the line to KJ's.

Offline ednksu

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2013, 09:19:29 AM »
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

Should I interpret as a normal zacker post to stir the pot, or is this legitimately a "I don't like how we win even though we're winning a lot the same way" post?

:dunno:
Forgive me, does FTR factor into PPP in anyway?
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Offline michigancat

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Re: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #15 on: February 24, 2013, 09:38:54 AM »
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois

catzacker

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #16 on: February 24, 2013, 10:16:11 AM »
Texas has reached a PPP of 1.09 or greater on 3 occassions all year:  @TCU, ISU, and TT.

help defense.

Should I interpret as a normal zacker post to stir the pot, or is this legitimately a "I don't like how we win even though we're winning a lot the same way" post?

:dunno:

I am amazed it hasn't caught up to them by now, however games @baylor amd @osu might be the shoes that fall.  I have just not seen a ksu team shoot like that. 

Offline kim carnes

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Re: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #17 on: February 24, 2013, 10:38:50 AM »
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois

maybe kansas st is different than illinois?

Offline michigancat

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #18 on: February 24, 2013, 10:40:04 AM »
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois

maybe kansas st is different than illinois?

Yeah, I guess it's possible that Illinois fans wouldn't let oscar have his team shoot 40% from three. I mean they did tell him who to recruit.

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2013, 11:34:49 AM »
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois


I will agree with you that it is a statistical anomaly for a oscar team in the long run, so its unreasonable to expect a 40% team next year, etc.

But its not an anomaly for this particular season, and while we could have a low 30% game in our last 4, its reasonable to expect us to shoot in the upper 30s (at least) the rest of this season.

8 of 14 league games we've shot 40% or better. 10 of 14 we've hit at least 2/3. And we've actually shot better on the road (.413) than at home (.389), so we should be fine @BU or @OSU.

Offline michigancat

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #20 on: February 24, 2013, 11:59:46 AM »
Now at 40% from 3 in league games, though I'm sure after 14 games that's purely an accident.

well, considering he has never had a team shoot 40% for an entire season, he only had a single month of conference games at Illinois where his teams shot 40% from 3, and 6 of 7 returning players at Illinois are shooting better from three than they did last year, there's a pretty good chance that this is correct.

 http://statsheet.com/mcb/beyondthearc/teams/illinois


I will agree with you that it is a statistical anomaly for a oscar team in the long run, so its unreasonable to expect a 40% team next year, etc.

But its not an anomaly for this particular season, and while we could have a low 30% game in our last 4, its reasonable to expect us to shoot in the upper 30s (at least) the rest of this season.

8 of 14 league games we've shot 40% or better. 10 of 14 we've hit at least 2/3. And we've actually shot better on the road (.413) than at home (.389), so we should be fine @BU or @OSU.

shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Offline SwiftCat

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #21 on: February 24, 2013, 12:08:41 PM »

shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Why not?

Offline kso_FAN

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #22 on: February 24, 2013, 12:22:15 PM »
shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Maybe not an anomaly, but it would still be very unexpected.

Offline sys

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Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #23 on: February 24, 2013, 12:42:47 PM »
shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Maybe not an anomaly, but it would still be very unexpected.

no it wouldn't.  3% has high variance.  neither shooting 20% nor 60% would be unexpected.
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Offline kso_FAN

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Re: Re: ErWINning formula (again); UT ADV
« Reply #24 on: February 24, 2013, 12:48:25 PM »
shooting 30% or worse in both of those individual games wouldn't really be a statistical anomaly either.

Maybe not an anomaly, but it would still be very unexpected.

no it wouldn't.  3% has high variance.  neither shooting 20% nor 60% would be unexpected.

2 games at/under 30% when you've had 1 at 30% in league games is unexpected to me.