2013 Season Big 12 Efficiency and Four Factors (regular season adv stats)

[Stevesie60]

Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?

Yes, the really good Bulter was the one we played.

I just mean that there are 3 BU's on that list even though Baylor only made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years, and there is only 1 Butler, even though they made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years.

[kso_FAN]

Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?

Yes, the really good Bulter was the one we played.

I just mean that there are 3 BU's on that list even though Baylor only made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years, and there is only 1 Butler, even though they made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years.

Fixed.

[yosh]

I would not have guessed that the fighting breads were dead last in the conference at getting to the free throw line.  My word.  Everything else jives with what my eyes have seen. 

It is interesting how similar the Breads are to the Bruces, except for offensive eFG%.

Very interesting.

[Powercat Posse]

Kstate = PPP 1.20 or better in 6 of the last 8 games

We had 1.20 or better 6 times in 50 conf games (2010-2012)

The Cats 1.11 ppp in Big 12 play ---- Tied for 23rd (out of 340 teams) in conf games.   Isu is tied for 19th

[kso_FAN]

[kso_FAN]

Full Big 12 ADV will be here Thursday AM, but while we wait for the results of Wed's slate...


http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2540 (includes last night's games)

Why coaches should do one-and-done or two-and-through: In the rankings and in the mock brackets, Kansas State is regarded as fundamentally different than Kansas. But the counsel of a thousand Big 12 possessions suggests these two teams may be much more similar in performance terms than people think. True, KU with new-look Johnson could separate from the pack, and K-State has two road games remaining (at Baylor and Oklahoma State) to the Jayhawks' one (also in Waco), so the numbers seen here are a work in progress. Still, the Wildcats have been surprisingly good to this point. I don't have the final tallies from the relevant years at Southern Illinois in front of me, but based on stops in Champaign and now Manhattan it would appear that early-era oscar Weber teams are often very good on offense.

[Skipper44]

early era

[kso_FAN]

[ben_dover919]

Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.

[kso_FAN]

Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.

Well, we are pretty good shooters... but teams shoot well against us.

I do like the +.11 points per possession differential.

Plus rebounding has come around to be neutral.

[Skipper44]

Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.

if i am reading statsheet.com correctly, we have made 36 more 3s than our opponents in conference play, only ISU has a larger differential at 62

[kso_FAN]

Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.

if i am reading statsheet.com correctly, we have made 36 more 3s than our opponents in conference play, only ISU has a larger differential at 62

While the numbers are a bit different (and not quite as dramatic), this explanation I put up a couple of weeks ago still holds true.

I appreciate that posters at goEMAW like advanced stats and have a good understanding of their impact on the game (and usefulness for analysis), but sometimes its helpful to see how they translate back to traditional stats and how they actually impact points scored or not scored during a game.

First we'll look at TO%. K-State has an impressive advantage of almost 6%, .159 compared to .217. The net impact of that when you factor in K-State's average of 62.7 possessions per game ends up giving K-State 3.6 "extra" possessions compared to their opponent. When factored into K-State's average of 1.06 points per possession, on paper that gives K-State an advantage of 3.8 points per game, but I think the impact actually becomes a bit larger because of other factors that I'll get to later.

Next is OR%. K-State has started to even out, but still is at a -2.4% margin, .290 to .314. However, the impact is much less because through Big 12 games K-State averages 56 shots and 31 misses. At a .290 OR%, that means K-State gains 9.0 offensive boards per game. Meanwhile opponents average only 49 shots (see TO%) and 27 misses; or 8.5 off boards per game. As a result of forcing TOs and getting more shot opportunities, K-State ends up with .5 more offensive boards per game than opponents.

When we look at FT rate, this is the only factor that nets K-State a negative impact. K-State's opponents are averaging a .434 FT rate in conference games; when multiplied by 49 shots, that nets 21.3 FT attempts, and at .629 FT%, opponents score 13.4 points per game at the FT line. Meanwhile, K-State's .240 FT rate when multiplied by 56 shots gives K-State 13.4 attempts at .673 FT% for 9 points per game for a significant difference of 4.4 points per game.

However, now we go back to eFG% where K-State gains a huge advantage. That TO% and 3.6 more possessions gives K-State extra shot opportunities (and the FT rate disadvantage takes away opponent shot attempts), giving K-State the shot advantage of 56 attempts compared to 49 for opponents. Then when you factor in K-State's eFG% advantage of .515 to .481, the Cats end up with 28.8 "made shots" compared to only 23.6 "makes" for opponents. Of course, eFG% factors in 3PT makes as 1.5 2PT "makes", so you can just multiply the "made shots" by 2 to get the net advantage. As a result K-State scores 57.6 points off of "shooting" compared to only 47.1 for opponents and an impressive 10.5 points per game advantage. This more than overrides the disadvantage on from FT rate, and when you add total points per game scored from "shooting" (57.6 to 47.1) and FTs (9.0 to 13.4), you get K-State's net advantage in Big 12 play of 66.6 to 60.5.

Again, this illustrates why TO% and eFG% differentials are more important than OR% and FT rate. Of course you want to win all of them, and if K-State closes the gap in FT rate and continues to be near even in OR% while maintaining the eFG% and TO% numbers, 2nd should be vary attainable, and possibly 1st with the continued problems KU continues to show, especially in TO%.

[Powercat Posse]

Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.

Our TO% DIF has been solid all conf season long.   So has the eFG and 3pt shooting.
O-Rebounding has taken a nice jump up and even though our FTR is not great, our FT shooting has been

There is a good reason why we are 8-1 in these past 9 games
* We are +2.9 in TOs differ per game.   That is 3 extra possessions for us to score
* Our OR% is 39.1% (which is about 5% better than our opp)
* We are shooting 78.4% from the FT line
* Our 40% 3pt shooting has helped keep our eFG over 52%

All of those contribute to us scoring 1.19ppp in 7 of those 9 games and ave 1.17 ppp
For comparisons..... We are at 1.17 last 9 gms.  In conf games, Indiana is 6th in the nation in ppp at 1.16
Cats are 23rd nationally in ppp counting all of our 15 games
 

[kso_FAN]

[Powercat Posse]

1st now in B12 in Def TO% to go along with 1st in TO% DIF.

Still top 10 (6th nationally) in A/To ratio in conf games

Top 30 nationally in 3pt shooting % (29th) and PPP (27th) in conf games



We are up to 3rd in B12 in OR%.  WV and KU ahead of us
Last 10 games we are 39.0%.   WV (37.5) and KU (36.9) in their last 10

[SwiftCat]

Seeing OR% on the rise is great, even if our opp OR% still isn't stellar. Pretty tough to stop on offense when you shoot well, don't turn the ball over, and get a good percentage of your misses.

[SleepFighter]

Seeing OR% on the rise is great, even if our opp OR% still isn't stellar. Pretty tough to stop on offense when you shoot well, don't turn the ball over, and get a good percentage of your misses.

I mentioned it earlier in this thread, but it is still true, there is no stat that correlates to this K-State team winning more than OR%. 

In games where our OR% is <= 30% we are 2-5.
In all other games we are 22-0.

[Powercat Posse]

Seeing OR% on the rise is great, even if our opp OR% still isn't stellar. Pretty tough to stop on offense when you shoot well, don't turn the ball over, and get a good percentage of your misses.

I mentioned it earlier in this thread, but it is still true, there is no stat that correlates to this K-State team winning more than OR%. 

In games where our OR% is <= 30% we are 2-5.
In all other games we are 22-0.

That is a good stat.   The 2 wins are both vs OU

[Powercat Posse]

So, 16 games done.    Of the 9 guys we play on a regular basis, 8 of them are above 50.0% eFG.   Pretty amazing.

Angel is at 44.6%.    He struggled shooting early in conf play, but in his last 8 games, he is at 54.6%

16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games.   Damn what a stud.

[Stevesie60]

16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games.   Damn what a stud.

Oh my.

[SwiftCat]

16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games.   Damn what a stud.

Oh my.

My goodness that's a great stat line.

[pvegs]

16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games.   Damn what a stud.

Oh my.

Those shooting %s are positively Nashian.

[kso_FAN]

Updated list of the current leading points per possession scoring margin teams in conference games:

Gonzaga   0.30
Florida   0.29
St. Mary's   0.20
Memphis   0.19
Indiana   0.18
Kansas   0.17
Louisville   0.17
St. Louis   0.16
Southern Miss   0.15
Creighton   0.15
Miami   0.15
VCU   0.14
Duke   0.13
Okla State   0.12
Pitt   0.12
Virginia   0.12
K-State   0.11
Georgetown   0.11
Michigan   0.11
Wisconsin   0.11
New Mexico   0.11
Missouri   0.10
Wichita St   0.10
Syracuse   0.09
Marquette   0.09
Colorado St   0.09
Michigan St   0.08
SD State   0.08
North Carolina   0.08
Ohio St   0.07
Arizona   0.06
Oregon   0.05
UCLA   0.05

[mocat]

#10 among teams that are in real conferences! 

[kso_FAN]

#10 among teams that are in real conferences! 

Yeah, I suppose you could correlate .10-.12 in an AQ conference to .15-.16 in the NonAQ teams.

But Gonzaga is legit, .30 is ridiculous. But so is Florida's .29 in the SEC, though the SEC is the worst AQ conference this year with only 2 teams that are locks for the NCAAs.