We have no chance. I know this isn't statistically the case, but I'm going to believe this so I feel better about the Dr. P. And also if we back into a BCS title shot I'll be super happy!
Me too, Nic. Me too. Somebody's calling for a miracle? Please Fatty, can you put in a good word for us? 
Actually, according to the "computers" it's about a 10% chance that ND, ORE, and UF all lose.
Factor in our chance of wining against Texas (74%), and I think realistically we have between a about a 5 to 7.5% chance of making the MNC at this point.
Or if you're like most of the posters here, there is a 95% chance we will not play in the MNC.