The FR-SO base is a nice group, but their ceiling from my perspective is an average to slightly above average team in this league.
That's what they are now. Are you saying the freshmen and sophomores have already hit their ceiling? 
Basically, yes. Based on a snapshot of what we currently have in the program compared to the rest of the league.
What leads you to believe any differently?
He's finished in the top 4 4 out of 5 years, and his recruiting is getting better. I guess you can say that top 4 is only "slightly above average" in a 10 team league, but I think that's intentionally vague and arbitrary. I also think they could crack the top 2 or 3 before they're done.
Relative to KU, Baylor we have considerably less talent. Relative to the young nucleus and the top 10 class at Texas? Texas is definitely more talented. Huggins has as much or more returning. OSU has nice crop of young talent and an emerging star in Nash. ISU is more talented this year and the Mayor can recruit.
It's a solid group, not taking anything away from it. I just don't see where we overcompensate the gap in relation to the rest of the league.
Is the fact that he's finished ahead of OSU 5 out of 5 years, Baylor 4 out of 5 years, and ISU 4 out of 5 years not enough to think he can get the freshmen and sophomores to finish ahead of them? The only thing that's changed is a couple transfers at ISU. You're right that we'll probably continue to finish behind KU and UT fairly consistently as long as their coaches are in place.