Eddie Sutton would have been canned after 13 seasons at OSU, missing his last 3 seasons which included a final four, a sweet 16, 2 P66ers and a B12 title.
Roy Williams (not counting probation year) finished at KU with 16 pts. Never got below 10 after first final four.
Norm Stewart would have been fired after three seasons at MU
Johnny Orr would have been fired after three seasons at ISU
Rick Barnes would have 4 pts left.
Lute Olson would have had a precarious ride. Feeling immense pressure even after winning an ass load of conference titles before going to his second final four in 1993, then being down to one point before winning it all in 1997
Bill Self with 16 pts, never had to worry even with the 1st round chokes.
Dean Smith would have been fired after three years at UNC
Gary Williams would have been fired after three years at MAryland
K would have been fired after three seasons at Duke
Jim Calhoun would have been fired after 6 seasons. His last 4 seasons? E8, S16, 32, NIT with two BE titles and a BE tourney title.
Jim Boeheim would have been fired at Syracuse after 10 years. His run would have included 2 BE titles, 1 BE tourney title, 8 of 10 years in the NCAAs, 4 S16. He would have been fired in a season where he went 26-6, won and won the BE title.
Gene Keady would have been fired after 6 seasons. The last four of which were NCAA bids, and included a conference title.
It is also interesting to look at how the coaches did immediately following a Chingon firing, but I'll let you wiki that yourself.
It is a decent Idea, but Conference titles, and high seeds are more indicative of a solid coach than NCAA runs. I could list most any coach who comes to mind and only the greatest of the great can pass this test, and as you've seen many of them struggle with it as well.
Also, S16 as a baseline to happiness leads to a miserable life as a BBall fan.