Author Topic: The Magic Number  (Read 13734 times)

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Offline CHONGS

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The Magic Number
« on: January 30, 2012, 02:56:26 PM »
A  proposed system for determining when a coach should be fired.

A new coach shall start with 8 points.    When the coach reaches 0 (or less than 0) they should be fired.

Every year they do not make the NIT tournament they lose 3 points.

Every year they do not make the NCAA tournament they lose 2 points.

Every year they do not  make it past the first weekend they lose 1 point.

Making the second weekend is no loss or gain of points (this is the baseline expectation).

Making the Elite 8 is a gain of 1 point

Making the Final Four is a gain of 2 points

Making the champ game is a gain of 4 points

Winning the nat'l champ is worth 8 points

Winning the conference is a gain of 1 point

Winning the conference tournament is a gain of 1 point


Frank Marin
Starting :                  8 points
after 2007-2008     7 points
after 2008-2009     5 points
after 2009-2010     6 points
after 2010-2011     5 points

tweaks that should be added?  point adjustments?
 


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Offline ben ji

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #1 on: January 30, 2012, 02:57:41 PM »
A  proposed system for determining when a coach should be fired.

A new coach shall start with 8 points.    When the coach reaches 0 (or less than 0) they should be fired.

Every year they do not make the NIT tournament they lose 3 points.

Every year they do not make the NCAA tournament they lose 2 points.

Every year they do not  make it past the first weekend they lose 1 point.

Making the second weekend is no loss or gain of points (this is the baseline expectation).

Making the Elite 8 is a gain of 1 point

Making the Final Four is a gain of 2 points

Making the champ game is a gain of 4 points

Winning the nat'l champ is worth 8 points

Winning the conference is a gain of 1 point

Winning the conference tournament is a gain of 1 point


Frank Marin
Starting :                  8 points
after 2007-2008     7 points
after 2008-2009     5 points
after 2009-2010     6 points
after 2010-2011     5 points

tweaks that should be added?  point adjustments?
 

DO DOC NOW

Offline mcmwcat

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #2 on: January 30, 2012, 03:00:20 PM »
A  proposed system for determining when a coach should be fired.

A new coach shall start with 8 points.    When the coach reaches 0 (or less than 0) they should be fired.

Every year they do not make the NIT tournament they lose 3 points.

Every year they do not make the NCAA tournament they lose 2 points.

Every year they do not  make it past the first weekend they lose 1 point.

Making the second weekend is no loss or gain of points (this is the baseline expectation).

Making the Elite 8 is a gain of 1 point

Making the Final Four is a gain of 2 points

Making the champ game is a gain of 4 points

Winning the nat'l champ is worth 8 points

Winning the conference is a gain of 1 point

Winning the conference tournament is a gain of 1 point


Frank Marin
Starting :                  8 points
after 2007-2008     7 points
after 2008-2009     5 points
after 2009-2010     6 points
after 2010-2011     5 points

tweaks that should be added?  point adjustments?
 

maybe add a pt for conference reg season and sweet 16 and beyond.

round of 32 should be expectation  :dunno:

good system though.   :thumbs:

Offline wes mantooth

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2012, 03:00:42 PM »
A  proposed system for determining when a coach should be fired.

A new coach shall start with 8 points.    When the coach reaches 0 (or less than 0) they should be fired.

Every year they do not make the NIT tournament they lose 3 points.

Every year they do not make the NCAA tournament they lose 2 points.

Every year they do not  make it past the first weekend they lose 1 point.

Making the second weekend is no loss or gain of points (this is the baseline expectation).

Making the Elite 8 is a gain of 1 point

Making the Final Four is a gain of 2 points

Making the champ game is a gain of 4 points

Winning the nat'l champ is worth 8 points

Winning the conference is a gain of 1 point

Winning the conference tournament is a gain of 1 point


Frank Marin
Starting :                  8 points
after 2007-2008     7 points
after 2008-2009     5 points
after 2009-2010     6 points
after 2010-2011     5 points

tweaks that should be added?  point adjustments?
 

DO DOC NOW

How many points do you get for a first round NIT win?

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2012, 03:01:51 PM »
A  proposed system for determining when a coach should be fired.

A new coach shall start with 8 points.    When the coach reaches 0 (or less than 0) they should be fired.

Every year they do not make the NIT tournament they lose 3 points.

Every year they do not make the NCAA tournament they lose 2 points.

Every year they do not  make it past the first weekend they lose 1 point.

Making the second weekend is no loss or gain of points (this is the baseline expectation).

Making the Elite 8 is a gain of 1 point

Making the Final Four is a gain of 2 points

Making the champ game is a gain of 4 points

Winning the nat'l champ is worth 8 points

Winning the conference is a gain of 1 point

Winning the conference tournament is a gain of 1 point


Frank Marin
Starting :                  8 points
after 2007-2008     7 points
after 2008-2009     5 points
after 2009-2010     6 points
after 2010-2011     5 points

tweaks that should be added?  point adjustments?
 

DO DOC NOW

How many points do you get for a first round NIT win?
-2

Offline nicname

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2012, 04:08:42 PM »
Eddie Sutton would have been canned after 13 seasons at OSU, missing his last 3 seasons which included a final four, a sweet 16, 2 P66ers and a B12 title.
Roy Williams (not counting probation year) finished at KU with 16 pts.  Never got below 10 after first final four.
Norm Stewart would have been fired after three seasons at MU
Johnny Orr would have been fired after three seasons at ISU
Rick Barnes would have 4 pts left.
Lute Olson would have had a precarious ride.  Feeling immense pressure even after winning an ass load of conference titles before going to his second final four in 1993, then being down to one point before winning it all in 1997
Bill Self with 16 pts, never had to worry even with the 1st round chokes.
Dean Smith would have been fired after three years at UNC
Gary Williams would have been fired after three years at MAryland
K would have been fired after three seasons at Duke
Jim Calhoun would have been fired after 6 seasons. His last 4 seasons? E8,  S16, 32, NIT with two BE titles and a BE tourney title.
Jim Boeheim would have been fired at Syracuse after 10 years.  His run would have included 2 BE titles, 1 BE tourney title, 8 of 10 years in the NCAAs, 4 S16. He would have been fired in a season where he went 26-6, won and won the BE title.
Gene Keady would have been fired after 6 seasons.  The last four of which were NCAA bids, and included a conference title.

It is also interesting to look at how the coaches did immediately following a Chingon firing, but I'll let you wiki that yourself.

It is a decent Idea, but Conference titles, and high seeds are more indicative of a solid coach than NCAA runs.  I could list most any coach who comes to mind and only the greatest of the great can pass this test, and as you've seen many of them struggle with it as well. 

Also, S16 as a baseline to happiness leads to a miserable life as a BBall fan.






If there was a gif of nicname thwarting the attempted-flag-taker and then gesturing him to suck it, followed by motioning for all of Hilton Shelter to boo him louder, it'd be better than that auburn gif.

Offline puniraptor

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2012, 04:11:13 PM »
Fun! Do Wooly!

Offline Winters

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2012, 04:11:56 PM »
Fun system.
Best #heel and/or #babyface on this blogsite



If it were up to me, Wintz would be on a fan scholarship, full ride.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #8 on: January 30, 2012, 04:14:44 PM »
Eddie Sutton would have been canned after 13 seasons at OSU, missing his last 3 seasons which included a final four, a sweet 16, 2 P66ers and a B12 title.
Roy Williams (not counting probation year) finished at KU with 16 pts.  Never got below 10 after first final four.
Norm Stewart would have been fired after three seasons at MU
Johnny Orr would have been fired after three seasons at ISU
Rick Barnes would have 4 pts left.
Lute Olson would have had a precarious ride.  Feeling immense pressure even after winning an ass load of conference titles before going to his second final four in 1993, then being down to one point before winning it all in 1997
Bill Self with 16 pts, never had to worry even with the 1st round chokes.
Dean Smith would have been fired after three years at UNC
Gary Williams would have been fired after three years at MAryland
K would have been fired after three seasons at Duke
Jim Calhoun would have been fired after 6 seasons. His last 4 seasons? E8,  S16, 32, NIT with two BE titles and a BE tourney title.
Jim Boeheim would have been fired at Syracuse after 10 years.  His run would have included 2 BE titles, 1 BE tourney title, 8 of 10 years in the NCAAs, 4 S16. He would have been fired in a season where he went 26-6, won and won the BE title.
Gene Keady would have been fired after 6 seasons.  The last four of which were NCAA bids, and included a conference title.

It is also interesting to look at how the coaches did immediately following a Chingon firing, but I'll let you wiki that yourself.

It is a decent Idea, but Conference titles, and high seeds are more indicative of a solid coach than NCAA runs.  I could list most any coach who comes to mind and only the greatest of the great can pass this test, and as you've seen many of them struggle with it as well. 

Also, S16 as a baseline to happiness leads to a miserable life as a BBall fan.







i think your math is horribly wrong.

Offline Skipper44

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2012, 04:18:14 PM »
Wooly would of been fired after year 2, would of been what, -22 when he finally was Weisered

Asbury would of been -12


I may be doing it wrong, but you basically get a -5 every year there is no post season, correct?

Offline AppleJack

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2012, 04:21:38 PM »
Top 4 conference finish  :dunno:
When one person, for whatever reason, has a chance to lead an exceptional life, he has no right to keep it to himself.

Offline Skipper44

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2012, 04:22:33 PM »
Eddie Sutton would have been canned after 13 seasons at OSU, missing his last 3 seasons which included a final four, a sweet 16, 2 P66ers and a B12 title.
Roy Williams (not counting probation year) finished at KU with 16 pts.  Never got below 10 after first final four.
Norm Stewart would have been fired after three seasons at MU
Johnny Orr would have been fired after three seasons at ISU
Rick Barnes would have 4 pts left.
Lute Olson would have had a precarious ride.  Feeling immense pressure even after winning an ass load of conference titles before going to his second final four in 1993, then being down to one point before winning it all in 1997
Bill Self with 16 pts, never had to worry even with the 1st round chokes.
Dean Smith would have been fired after three years at UNC
Gary Williams would have been fired after three years at MAryland
K would have been fired after three seasons at Duke
Jim Calhoun would have been fired after 6 seasons. His last 4 seasons? E8,  S16, 32, NIT with two BE titles and a BE tourney title.
Jim Boeheim would have been fired at Syracuse after 10 years.  His run would have included 2 BE titles, 1 BE tourney title, 8 of 10 years in the NCAAs, 4 S16. He would have been fired in a season where he went 26-6, won and won the BE title.
Gene Keady would have been fired after 6 seasons.  The last four of which were NCAA bids, and included a conference title.

It is also interesting to look at how the coaches did immediately following a Chingon firing, but I'll let you wiki that yourself.

It is a decent Idea, but Conference titles, and high seeds are more indicative of a solid coach than NCAA runs.  I could list most any coach who comes to mind and only the greatest of the great can pass this test, and as you've seen many of them struggle with it as well. 

Also, S16 as a baseline to happiness leads to a miserable life as a BBall fan.







i think your math is horribly wrong.
Yes, I have Self at 38  :dunno:

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2012, 04:23:03 PM »
Bill Self:
Starts with             8
after 2003-2004:  9
after 2004-2005:  9
after 2005-2006:  10
after 2006-2007:  13
after 2007-2008:  23
after 2008-2009:  23
after 2009-2010:  24
after 2010-2011:  27
  

Offline AbeFroman

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #13 on: January 30, 2012, 04:23:32 PM »
Doing coaches before tournament expansion would be dumb IMO. Making the tournament back in the 60s and 70s would have been worth 5 points

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #14 on: January 30, 2012, 04:24:05 PM »
Tex Winter would have been fired at K-State after four seasons keeping KSU out of a couple of Final Fours, a couple of Elite Eights and a Sweet Sixteen that followed.

Jack Hartman would have been fired after his 9th season and KSU would have missed the three straight NCAA appearances that followed including a Sweet Sixteen and an Elite Eight.

Dumb system.   :flush:
« Last Edit: January 30, 2012, 04:29:56 PM by AzCat »

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #15 on: January 30, 2012, 04:24:19 PM »
Wooly would of been fired after year 2, would of been what, -22 when he finally was Weisered

Asbury would of been -12


I may be doing it wrong, but you basically get a -5 every year there is no post season, correct?
no he would lose -3 every year

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #16 on: January 30, 2012, 04:25:39 PM »
This is a system for present day college basketball (espn era).

Offline CNS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #17 on: January 30, 2012, 04:28:09 PM »
I think your system undervalues Elite 8's and def Final Fours.  Also, substitute "second round" for "second weekend".

Winning conf season should def be more than winning the tourney.  

Otherwise, I agree it is a fun system.

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #18 on: January 30, 2012, 04:28:33 PM »
I see the confusion about the point system.  It's not cumulative penalties.  Not making the NIT is -3 (you don't get double penalized).  If you don't make the NIT its obvious you missed the NCAA so the penalty has already been included.  The most points you can lose in a season is 3, and the most you can gain is 10 (Nat'l Champ + win conference and win conference title)

Offline nicname

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #19 on: January 30, 2012, 04:31:11 PM »
Lon Kruger would have been fired from every job he's ever had outside of KSU.  It could be argued he would have been fired at FLA had he not bolted for ILL.
Kelvin Sampson's career at OU nearly matches his points as he left OU with one point remaining.
Larry Eustachy is a perfect match for the system at ISU
Billy Tubbs would have been fired after 91-92 season.  He took OU to the NIT in the following two years before leaving town anyway.
Quin Snyder is a perfect match.
John Calipari would have been fired before ever making an NCAA at both Umass and Memp.
Tom Izzo would currently have 24 pts at MSU.  The king of this system.

After more thought the system works well for coaches that didn't have to turn a program around from sucking previously.  Interesting.  

I still think the NCAA tourney is a crapshoot confy titles and high seeds are a better inticator.  But perhaps the two just go hand in hand.  If you get enough high seed you will score in on some.  Some coaches exceed the mean on this (izzo), while others (Keady) fall short.

For SD: Jay Wright, currenty sitting at 2 pts.  Better make the dance this year Dapper Dan.
If there was a gif of nicname thwarting the attempted-flag-taker and then gesturing him to suck it, followed by motioning for all of Hilton Shelter to boo him louder, it'd be better than that auburn gif.

Offline Skipper44

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #20 on: January 30, 2012, 04:31:45 PM »
Wooly would of been fired after year 2, would of been what, -22 when he finally was Weisered

Asbury would of been -12


I may be doing it wrong, but you basically get a -5 every year there is no post season, correct?
no he would lose -3 every year
OK

Wooly should of been fired after year 3 and would of been -10

Asbury should of been fired after year 4 and was -3

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #21 on: January 30, 2012, 04:33:06 PM »
Lon Kruger would have been fired from every job he's ever had outside of KSU.  It could be argued he would have been fired at FLA had he not bolted for ILL.
Kelvin Sampson's career at OU nearly matches his points as he left OU with one point remaining.
Larry Eustachy is a perfect match for the system at ISU
Billy Tubbs would have been fired after 91-92 season.  He took OU to the NIT in the following two years before leaving town anyway.
Quin Snyder is a perfect match.
John Calipari would have been fired before ever making an NCAA at both Umass and Memp.
Tom Izzo would currently have 24 pts at MSU.  The king of this system.

After more thought the system works well for coaches that didn't have to turn a program around from sucking previously.  Interesting.  

I still think the NCAA tourney is a crapshoot confy titles and high seeds are a better inticator.  But perhaps the two just go hand in hand.  If you get enough high seed you will score in on some.  Some coaches exceed the mean on this (izzo), while others (Keady) fall short.

For SD: Jay Wright, currenty sitting at 2 pts.  Better make the dance this year Dapper Dan.
you need to redo your math.  I clarified the points above.  

Offline CHONGS

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #22 on: January 30, 2012, 04:33:54 PM »
Wooly would of been fired after year 2, would of been what, -22 when he finally was Weisered

Asbury would of been -12


I may be doing it wrong, but you basically get a -5 every year there is no post season, correct?
no he would lose -3 every year
OK

Wooly should of been fired after year 3 and would of been -10

Asbury should of been fired after year 4 and was -3
wooly would have been fired after year three with -1.

three years with no NIT = -9

Offline nicname

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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #23 on: January 30, 2012, 04:35:50 PM »
Oh crap didn't see you added points for confy titles and P66 titles. 

Great system then.  Works well

Still need to put in a clause for coaches turning around horrid programs.
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Re: The Magic Number
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2012, 04:39:46 PM »
The coaches should have to negotiate the amount of points they start with