I suppose improvement is relative. I've heard and read several times this week how Kansas is playing "better" because they had a decent half of football against OU. Or that they've had moments of good football at home because they were up 20-0 against Tech. But for every "good moment" for KU football there are worse bad moments. Like being outscored by Tech 45-7 after that 20-0 lead (before a late touchdown made the score look semi-close). Or after "holding their own" with OU for a half, coming out in the 2nd half and gaining 8 yards on offense while not having a drive cross their own 40 yard line, let alone midfield.
KU has some nice offensive players and they can (and likely will) score some points, but losing in Lawrence wouldn't just take K-State playing bad, it would take K-State playing at the level they did against EKU. Also keep in mind K-State is coming off of putting together arguably its best combined offensive and defensive performance of the season. In the 2nd half against Tech K-State gained 230 yards (most yards in any half in the last 4 games) and scored 21 points (most points in any half) and gained 6.1 yards per play (2nd most YPP in any half). Meanwhile the defense allowed only 4.1 YPP (matching the 1st half in Miami as the fewest YPP allowed) while allowing only 6 points (3 points in the first half against Missouri and Miami were the only 2 halves with less).
Key per play stats:
KU Off yards per play: 5.78 (#55)
KU Off points per play: .43 (#50)
KU Off TOs per possession: .020 (#40)
KU return game yards per return (KO and Punt): 19.24 (#35)
KU Def YPP: 7.64 (#120)
KU Def PPP: .66 (#120)
KU Def TO forced PP: .009 (#119)
KU return def YPR: 18.1 (#68)
KSU Off YPP: 4.81 (#98)
KSU Off PPP: .42 (#56)
KSU Off TOPP: .017 (#21)
KSU Ret YPP: 20.41 (#23)
KSU Def YPP: 5.26 (#50)
KSU Def PPP: .30 (#32)
KSU Def TOFPP: .033 (#28)
KSU Ret Def YPP: 17.34 (#55)
Both teams have faced defenses with average scoring and total yards numbers in the 40s nationally. K-State has faced offenses with average scoring and total yards in the 40s while KU has faced offenses that average in the top 10 in both scoring and yards. But KU's numbers are so terrible on defense its hard to just give them excuse of facing great competition. They simply don't stop people from scoring or gaining yards in chunks, nor to they force turnovers. And the only running team they've faced that incorporates power and option like we do ran for 700 yards. Granted, GT is more explosive on offense than we are.
Its really difficult to think of scenarios where KU wins this game, thought is possible they hang around for a while like they did against OU. It will take soem soft of fluke defensive performance for KU to keep us out of the upper 30s or 40s offensively.
The only way this game stays close:
1) KU is +2 or more in TO margin.
2) K-State gives up more than 3 or 4 +30 yard plays.
3) KU wins special teams by a large margin.
I don't see all 3 of those happening. Snyder will not let K-State look past KU.
Cats 41
KU 24
