no walks without shitting first. not until she's ready. let her off the leash in the courtyard.
i still think the picking her up method is the way to go...maybe better than punishing her is to keep a close eye on her when you suspect shitting. usually dogs will give you a little bit of indication and that's your cue to run/drag her to some vegetation.
I let her off leash in the courtyard all the time. I don't see that it has any significant effect on crap'n. The problem with the "no walks" concept in this training is that walks are the only alternative to bed #life. Like, a walk isn't some fun outing, it's how we get anywhere. So no walk means imprisonment. I don't think this training concept works here. For example, Saturday, we had no choice but to walk b/c out of time. Tuesday, she has a bath appointment across downtown. Am I to take her to the courtyard an hour early in the hopes she shits and I can reward her with the walk we have to take regardless and possibly end up there an hour early? It all still depends currently on her whim to crap. And I'm not even sure I want to warp her mind to crap only in the courtyard. I want her to crap when she needs to crap, just in a dog appropriate spot.
I've been able to train sitting, shaking hands, getting in her shirts/coats, etc. because I can force those actions to happen and be able to reinforce them. I can't force crap, and I certainly can't prevent crap.
No, there is no warning, no way to suspect shitting. She walks like normal and then stops and shits. This latest one was mid-crossing a street, so obviously no warning sign.
Like the hypothetical aggieville death trap sidewalk trees, downtown seattle has dog crap cutouts of the pavement ever-y-where, some even with city-provided shitbag dispensers. That's ultimately the mystery: why in the courtyard when she shits, does she find the grassiest, most dignified green space to drop her load, yet in the real world, she foregoes all that for shitting in the worst spots possible among humans?