I think that when this conference merged with the members of the SWC (and I user merger as opposed to acquisition because it truly was a merger), all of the historical ties that other conferences seem to leverage and bank on for stability went out the window. It went from a conference held together by decades of membership and rivalry to a large business entity where each of the member schools seemed to really only care about their individual fortunes (or in the case of OU, another school), and when some schools started to thrive (OU, UT), and some started to plateau or drop off (NU, A&M), it made the decision easy to part ways because it was really about business, and none of the truly major players in the conference really had any care or concern for each other. They had formed a cartel to try and wrestle competitive control of the conference, but when a couple of the members of that cartel got too strong, the others bolted, and then the third started entertaining the option because it was really obvious as this thing evolved who really had all of the strength.
UT drove this conference to where it is now because Deloss Dodds was a fantastic AD who understood the value of Texas athletics, and used the system to squeeze every dime he could out of the situation. UT is being penalized because they were really, really good at the business side of athletics, and the rest of the schools want to flee the monster they created.
Really well said. The Pac 12, SEC, Big 10, and ACC all had those long relationships. Not surpringly they are in the strongest positions, especially the first 3.
Is this what is holding the ACC together now? It sounds like other conferences are having a hard time luring their schools away despite the crappy media contracts.
A few things...
The most desirable schools in the realignment process are VT and UNC, and both of them really want to be in the ACC. UNC because they were a driving force in creating it (and act as the UT of their conference in having a good deal of influence), and VT because they were longing for it for decades like Mizzou longed for the big 10. It took political crowbaring by the Virginia legislature to get VT into the ACC during the Big East acquisition phase, so the likelihood of them bolting is rather low considering how difficult it was to get them in there in the first place.
FSU and Clemson are being held in check because, academically, they aren't up to par in the big 10, and the SEC's gentleman's agreement that they won't offer schools already in the footprint. That may change when things get crazy, but that agreement is giving the ACC time to circle the wagons and fend off raiders, which they are currently doing.
I think the most likely candidate to bold would be Maryland, but that's just because scuttlebutt on the Interwebs has them as expansion target #2 behind ND for the big 10.