Mainstream Economics Thread

[wetwillie]

Yes that's how inflation works

[steve dave]

Economy cats, for the past month or two my YouTube algo has been serving up tons of housing bubble incoming videos and I haven't watched any of them but there's a lot of them. So is there anything to it or is it just a psyop?

housing prices are very sticky. nobody is buying right now. it's all tied to mortage rates. nobody wants a new 7% mortgage because they saw all the 2.5% mortgages flying off the shelves during and coming out of covid. people lucky enough to have locked in those sweet rates aren't going to sell because they can't replicate that rate. once mortgage rates drop to sub 6% home sales will heat back up. If by "bubble" they mean housing prices are going to materially go down then I'd say you can safely ignore them. homes (at least the ones you live in) are illiquid and people are very hesitant to take a loss on them, they will just continue to live in them.

So does that just mean that about 3 years ago housing prices just made a huge step change and like, yep, that’s just what houses costs from now on? Like a place that was $750k in 2021 became $1MM pretty much overnight and yeah sorry best you can hope for is maybe if you time the market just right you can get it for $990k?

I get your point abt people not wanting to take a loss but I’m talking about new builds. Like that brand new home was $750 in ‘21 and if they build that exact same brand new home today it’s a mill

On a macro level yes. House prices will not come down meaningfully. On a micro level you'll see some metros come down some because they had a larger run up. FL is seeing prices come down now after running up prices dramatically. That's not what you're going to see in the Midwest though, as an example. And no place will see prices at what they were at in 2021.

[steve dave]

I’d actually wager that you’ll see a run up in home prices once the mortgage run drops below like 5.5%. Of course, our president may have so massively mumped our economy that anything is possible.


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[Pete]

I’d actually wager that you’ll see a run up in home prices once the mortgage run drops below like 5.5%. Of course, our president may have so massively mumped our economy that anything is possible.


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I agree that a rate drop will drive up prices. List prices might lag, but sellers with multiple offers will become common.


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[wetwillie]

So if rates drop but prices go up, how is the net difference for prospective home buyers any different?  The price increase would have to stay below 5% at a half a point rate drop just to break even.

[steve dave]

So if rates drop but prices go up, how is the net difference for prospective home buyers any different?  The price increase would have to stay below 5% at a half a point rate drop just to break even.

It won’t be, or may be higher. Also sweet news for those people is they aren’t building crap for new homes.


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[steve dave]

https://x.com/spellgage/status/1951773963958530175

[steve dave]

https://x.com/markzandi/status/1952008077558858194?s=46


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[CNS]

Just like NASA’s latest climate report, the government is going to just stop releasing data.  All new reports will start with “trust me bro…”

[sonofdaxjones]

It’s about time The French Fryer at BLS got crap canned. 

The best part was watching the usuals heads explode when we found out (often) that Pedo Pete’s “job growth” numbers were absolute bullshit.

I’ll leave the explosion of part time and/or multi job holders for another time. The usuals go completely rage queen on that.


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[SleepFighter]

The Trump appointee who did the job before her disagrees.

I have yet to see one single piece of evidence that anything wrong was done. Not one. No, false documents, improper influence, nothing.

But keep on Daxing

[LickNeckey]

I mean she was plugging the available information into the established formula

If we need to change the formula or statistical measures that is a separate question

[wetwillie]

Legit thinking this lady was juking the stats to make Trump look bad is peak lunacy.

[Dugout DickStone]

Legit thinking this lady was juking the stats to make Trump look bad is peak lunacy.

She apparently did it to Biden

[IPA4Me]

I mean she was plugging the available information into the established formula

If we need to change the formula or statistical measures that is a separate question

It's 2025 and the people feeding the data can't send a fuckin email in time.

I hate our government more every day.

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[michigancat]

I mean she was plugging the available information into the established formula

If we need to change the formula or statistical measures that is a separate question

It's 2025 and the people feeding the data can't send a fuckin email in time.

I hate our government more every day.

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Why is that a government problem?

[sonofdaxjones]

The Trump appointee who did the job before her disagrees.

I have yet to see one single piece of evidence that anything wrong was done. Not one. No, false documents, improper influence, nothing.

But keep on Daxing

Only a complete dumbass doesn’t understand the timing of the bullshit numbers.

It walks hand in hand with Liz Warren out there on the circuit trying to shame Powell into lowering interest rates . . . when at that time it would have been 1000% a political move.

Viewers of this blog are now reminded that Jerome Powell’s Fed is $240 billion in the red, is now projecting no remittances out to 2027 and by all accounts is an operational budget crap show which only makes the $3.5 billion (and counting) they’re spending on their offices even more Marie Antoinettish.

But #blueanon/blueanongE is going to go balls deep in each other defending that guy.


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[steve dave]

Jesus Christ Dax


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