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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) on February 09, 2011, 10:26:42 PM
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Talk about:
1) "Mainstream economics"
2) stuff china exports to the US
3) inbreds and repubs (might as well hit the teabaggers too)
4) China being geographically larger than the US
5) dope
6) [and most ironically] anti-intellectuals
Your Welcome, Cleveland
:emawkid:
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We have a pretty decent trade deficit to China. Damn commies undercutting American made goods!
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We have a pretty decent trade deficit to China. Damn commies undercutting American made goods!
I heard in addition to them exporting lots of stuff to us, we also import a lot from them. Double edged sword these mainstream economics. If only pot was legal. . . f*cking teabagging inbreds
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Mainstream Economics Thread
Cleveland and Skycat, feel free to indulge us, you doltards
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Is this where we discuss all economics? :confused: Let's talk economics :Rusty:
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Is this where we discuss all economics? :confused: Let's talk economics :Rusty:
Our economy is currently whipping enormous amounts of ass relative to the rest of the developed world. :love:
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Conservative Democrat post
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Dick,
What are you bitching about?
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Is this where we discuss all economics? :confused: Let's talk economics :Rusty:
The stock market is being artificially propped up using perpetual quantitative easing (fake money)
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The stock market is being artificially propped up using perpetual quantitative easing (fake money)
how can you tell?
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The stock market is being artificially propped up using perpetual quantitative easing (fake money)
how can you tell?
Just a guess, but every time they threaten to stop, the market tanks. We won't really know until they really do cut it off.
Also, there is a weird kind of reverse logic going on with the traders. When bad economic news comes out, normally the market would go down, but the reverse is happening. Bad jobs report means QE will continue, so the market goes up. Good news on housing, the market goes down. The Fed is controlling the markets. JMHO
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Economy seems to be doing well, I currently have a nice job and my 401k/IRA has gone all Jacob Pullen the past year.
/thread
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The stock market is being artificially propped up using perpetual quantitative easing (fake money)
how can you tell?
Just a guess, but every time they threaten to stop, the market tanks. We won't really know until they really do cut it off.
Also, there is a weird kind of reverse logic going on with the traders. When bad economic news comes out, normally the market would go down, but the reverse is happening. Bad jobs report means QE will continue, so the market goes up. Good news on housing, the market goes down. The Fed is controlling the markets. JMHO
I think we should stop focusing on the paper pushing industry and focus more on wages, purchasing power, and unemployment levels.
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Oooo, is this where I put my cool economics class stories?
Cuz my teacher in Intermediate Macro completely called the financial collapse every day in class during the spring of 08. Each day would start and he would show some chart and basically say the economy was going to be mumped in a year and that 08 grads should be fine but it would suck to be an 09 grad...I was an 09 grad and was all like lol yeah whatever crazy econ guy....and then the market tanked in fall of 08 and I was all like DAMMIT.
Cool story huh?!
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Oooo, is this where I put my cool economics class stories?
Cuz my teacher in Intermediate Macro completely called the financial collapse every day in class during the spring of 08. Each day would start and he would show some chart and basically say the economy was going to be mumped in a year and that 08 grads should be fine but it would suck to be an 09 grad...I was an 09 grad and was all like lol yeah whatever crazy econ guy....and then the market tanked in fall of 08 and I was all like DAMMIT.
Cool story huh?!
who was the prof?
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Oooo, is this where I put my cool economics class stories?
Cuz my teacher in Intermediate Macro completely called the financial collapse every day in class during the spring of 08. Each day would start and he would show some chart and basically say the economy was going to be mumped in a year and that 08 grads should be fine but it would suck to be an 09 grad...I was an 09 grad and was all like lol yeah whatever crazy econ guy....and then the market tanked in fall of 08 and I was all like DAMMIT.
Cool story huh?!
who was the prof?
Cant remember, tall Swedish looking guy who was soft spoken, was probably in his mid 30's.
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Economists are generally pretty poor at consistently making accurate forecasts.
Also, why doesn't anyone complain about the government artificially propping up the housing market? It's much easier for someone to invest in the stock market than real estate.
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Economists are generally pretty poor at consistently making accurate forecasts.
Also, why doesn't anyone complain about the government artificially propping up the housing market? It's much easier for someone to invest in the stock market than real estate.
Why don't you just flip your house instead of complaining about it?
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I can't afford to buy a house, but I'm worried there's going to be another national housing bubble in the next year or two.
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I can't afford to buy a house, but I'm worried there's going to be another national housing bubble in the next year or two.
Would be a great time to buy a house.
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I can't afford to buy a house, but I'm worried there's going to be another national housing bubble in the next year or two.
Would be a great time to buy a house.
I still probably couldn't afford one.
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I can't afford to buy a house, but I'm worried there's going to be another national housing bubble in the next year or two.
Would be a great time to buy a house.
I still probably couldn't afford one.
Damned gentrification.
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Just a guess, but every time they threaten to stop, the market tanks. We won't really know until they really do cut it off.
Also, there is a weird kind of reverse logic going on with the traders. When bad economic news comes out, normally the market would go down, but the reverse is happening. Bad jobs report means QE will continue, so the market goes up. Good news on housing, the market goes down. The Fed is controlling the markets. JMHO
yeah, everyone is saying that. but as you say, it's impossible to know. everyone was saying the same thing last year about bonds, but when they finally got around to tapering, bonds went up.
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Oooo, is this where I put my cool economics class stories?
Cuz my teacher in Intermediate Macro completely called the financial collapse every day in class during the spring of 08. Each day would start and he would show some chart and basically say the economy was going to be mumped in a year and that 08 grads should be fine but it would suck to be an 09 grad...I was an 09 grad and was all like lol yeah whatever crazy econ guy....and then the market tanked in fall of 08 and I was all like DAMMIT.
Cool story huh?!
the housing/financial crisis "started" (became obvious) in the summer-fall of 2007.
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I can't afford to buy a house, but I'm worried there's going to be another national housing bubble in the next year or two.
nope, at least there isn't one that has already started.
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I can't afford to buy a house, but I'm worried there's going to be another national housing bubble in the next year or two.
Would be a great time to buy a house.
I still probably couldn't afford one.
Damned gentrification.
All these decades, I've moved through San Francisco pursuing my straight white literary activist girl pursuits but with joy in the people pursuing theirs and in the range and variety of life. Those mornings in Golden Gate Park, when I lived on that side of town, when the drummers were doing their thing on Hippie Hill, the roller disco royalty gyrating on skates, the old Chinese people doing their martial arts (with big pink fans, once, a whole flock of old ladies like flamingos), the bullfighters practicing sans bulls in the Panhandle, the swing dancers on the little bridge by the De Young, the saxaphonists and digeri doo guys playing with tunnel reverb, the runners running, the weddings and tourists and museum goers and cyclists and houseless campers and the archers at the far west where the gay men used to cruise before online shopping for sex: it felt like a world with room for everyone. I keep coming back to the sign an old woman held up at Occupy Wall Street: "We are fighting for a world where everyone matters."
This is why I'll pay my respects to Esta Noche even though I was never a Latina drag queen and why it pains me to see it and so many other institutions helping the old San Francisco be a world in which many worlds fit, in which everyone mattered, evicted, erased, outpriced. Those worlds are going out like lights as it becomes the chiefs new world of newcomers--and we always welcomed newcomers, but this many with this much clout are extinguishing what came before and not arriving in San Francisco but replacing it with a strange surburbanized dudely young version of the good life that doesn't have room for Latina drag queen bars, apparently. Or bookstores. Or the Coltrane Church. Or ladies who are nearly 100 and here by grace of rent control who could tell you wonderful stories about the San Francisco of the 1930s and 1940s. Or the godfather of the Mission and the Galeria de la Raza.
Remember that Bernal Hill is where some Sandinistas trained once upon a time, before anyone dreamed the Google Bus would be stopping at its foot, remember that we were the great portal for Zen in the west with San Francisco Zen Center, remember that we have been a great generator of magazines--Rolling Stone, Artforum--that moved, of ideas that stuck, starting with the environmental movement at least since the Sierra Club was founded on Kearny Street in 1892 and Earth Island Institute 90 years or so later, of liberation for queer people at least since North Beach was full of lesbian and drag bars and Jose Sarria (may s/he rest in regal festivity) was running for Supe in 1961 and the drag queens were beating the cops with their purses and heels at the Compton Cafeteria Riot long before Stonewall, remember that the Mission mural scene was all about art that wasn't white or gentrifying, remember that the Alcatraz occupation came out of Native Americans here who inspired a whole continent of indigenous people, remember that Asian rights and identities were often defined from here around the I-Hotel and its cultural center and activists and the great Asian writers of this region, remember that Valencia Street was lesbian bars and appliance stores before the new fancy came in, remember that the support for so many movements, and sometimes the big ideas, came from here. Will they again? I'm worried.
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I can't afford to buy a house, but I'm worried there's going to be another national housing bubble in the next year or two.
nope, at least there isn't one that has already started.
yeah, I believe another one has started and should have said that I am worried about another bubble bursting. I don't think anyone learned anything from the last one.
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yeah, I believe another one has started and should have said that I am worried about another bubble bursting. I don't think anyone learned anything from the last one.
have you looked at the data? there may be a few local bubbles that have started, but there is not a national bubble that has already started. if anything, lending standards are still so tight that they are stifling the housing market.
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have you looked at the data? there may be a few local bubbles that have started, but there is not a national bubble that has already started.
how do you know?
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i've looked at the data.
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i've looked at the data.
http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-index
:dunno:
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My point is how do you know you're in a bubble until after it's burst?
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Lets keep this bubble rolling another 5-10 years then pop it when ben ji has a family and needs to buy bigger house.
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Lets keep this bubble rolling another 5-10 years then pop it when ben ji has a family and needs to buy bigger house.
what if you can't sell the one you're in? (You probably won't need a bigger house, so you'll be fine, but it's something to think about).
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-QkSEBZSiE5w%2FUaTiVCXE2fI%2FAAAAAAAAN74%2Fhgp-_xyD0LQ%2Fs1600%2FAffordability%2BIndex.jpg&hash=17148599fb8463c189a528bb394ac5258ab56e30)
rates are low; most single-family residential mortgages are fixed.
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Lets keep this bubble rolling another 5-10 years then pop it when ben ji has a family and needs to buy bigger house.
what if you can't sell the one you're in? (You probably won't need a bigger house, so you'll be fine, but it's something to think about).
Already planning on renting the current house if I were to need a larger house :gocho:
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My point is how do you know you're in a bubble until after it's burst?
oh, hey there eugene fama.
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Back to the general economy...the stock market index prices are super high compare to earnings. Unsustainably high. Either earnings have to increase dramatically or the market is going to tank. Obviously earnings are rear-looking and the price indexes are forward looking so there might not be a disconnect there, but the potential is as high as it's ever been.
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-QkSEBZSiE5w%2FUaTiVCXE2fI%2FAAAAAAAAN74%2Fhgp-_xyD0LQ%2Fs1600%2FAffordability%2BIndex.jpg&hash=17148599fb8463c189a528bb394ac5258ab56e30)
rates are low; most single-family residential mortgages are fixed.
pffft, realtors.
There seems to be some contradicting data unless income has really shot up.
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-QkSEBZSiE5w%2FUaTiVCXE2fI%2FAAAAAAAAN74%2Fhgp-_xyD0LQ%2Fs1600%2FAffordability%2BIndex.jpg&hash=17148599fb8463c189a528bb394ac5258ab56e30)
rates are low; most single-family residential mortgages are fixed.
pffft, realtors.
There seems to be some contradicting data unless income has really shot up.
It's the personal debt that's gone down. Loans, credit cards, etc.
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Back to the general economy...the stock market index prices are super high compare to earnings. Unsustainably high. Either earnings have to increase dramatically or the market is going to tank. Obviously earnings are rear-looking and the price indexes are forward looking so there might not be a disconnect there, but the potential is as high as it's ever been.
data, please. i'd say earnings much more likely to be unsustainably high than valuations are (sp500, small caps seem like they are a little overvalued). valuations certainly aren't cheap, but they aren't outlandishly high. they're pretty normal.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.multpl.com%2Fchart-image-3bb4336d1106c064.png&hash=65ff3ddd995242553e7dafdbc41dbe5caa3d35c1)
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pffft, realtors.
There seems to be some contradicting data unless income has really shot up.
you could get the same graph off a different website, if you'd find it more convincing that way.
it's not contradictory data. affordability is a combination of housing prices, incomes and interest rates. interest rates are very low.
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pffft, realtors.
There seems to be some contradicting data unless income has really shot up.
you could get the same graph off a different website, if you'd find it more convincing that way.
it's not contradictory data. affordability is a combination of housing prices, incomes and interest rates. interest rates are very low.
your data just stopped at its peak in 2012. Taking the data all the way to the end of 2013 makes more sense.
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/hai-12-2013/hai-12-2013-housing-affordability-index-02-11-2014.pdf
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how does that make more sense to your bubble thesis? rates went up, housing price increases slowed.
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Raising the minimum wage increases unemployment when equilibrium wages are below the price floor.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fen%2Fe%2Fe9%2FSurplus_from_Price_Floor.svg&hash=fb33ecc3dc5f76d6fbc0358bef6849da2a68d1b5)
:cool:
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how does that make more sense to your bubble thesis? rates went up, housing price increases slowed.
It just made more sense compared to housing prices.
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
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Our economy has outpaced the developed world (western European socialists) since WW2. Saying its kicking ass right now compared to them is the equivalent of a big brother bragging about being older than his little brother.
The current state of our economy is really bad relative to similar points in time since WW2, which is troubling.
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Our economy has outpaced the developed world (western European socialists) since WW2. Saying its kicking ass right now compared to them is the equivalent of a big brother bragging about being older than his little brother.
The current state of our economy is really bad relative to similar points in time since WW2, which is troubling.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fstatic.seekingalpha.com%2Fuploads%2F2009%2F2%2F4%2Fsaupload_09_02_02f_gdp_since_1930.png&hash=40f606c3c7b6537cabc354944dbfb0908a0347e2)
Do I need to explain why WWII was good for the US economy?
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
hmm. Not mainstream either. Hardly ever hear about it on CNBS, when in reality we're all much poorer since the start of the millennium!
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
Inflation has been low recently. The US inflation rate currently sits at 1.6%. The optimal level is around 2.5%, right? What do we need to do to increase inflation, sys?
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very little economics talk itt :frown:
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
Inflation has been low recently. The US inflation rate currently sits at 1.6%. The optimal level is around 2.5%, right? What do we need to do to increase inflation, sys?
Ok, thinking inflation is good is pretty mainstream. It would be nice to pay less for things, imo.
We should like try going
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
Inflation has been low recently. The US inflation rate currently sits at 1.6%. The optimal level is around 2.5%, right? What do we need to do to increase inflation, sys?
Ok, thinking inflation is good is pretty mainstream. It would be nice to pay less for things, imo.
We should like try going
You seem to have a very poor understanding of economics.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/19/news/economy/low-inflation-risks/ (http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/19/news/economy/low-inflation-risks/)
The Fed typically aims to keep inflation around 2% a year. Inflation at that level is considered healthy, coinciding with solid economic growth, a growing job market and gradually rising wages.
"Economic history has shown that economies perform best with slightly higher levels of inflation, such as 2% to 3%," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist for the Economic Outlook Group. "Low and dormant inflation translates into a dormant economy."
Why is low inflation bad? There are a few key reasons.
First, when companies don't have any leeway to raise prices, they're more apt to cut costs, which could mean a cutback in hiring. Second, if inflation remains so low, consumers are not as motivated to rush out and spend, Baumohl said.
Third, when inflation is low, it doesn't offer a large buffer against deflation if an economic shock occurs. Deflation -- when prices fall -- often freezes up spending, because who wants to go out and buy an item now, if they expect it to be cheaper in six months?
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
Inflation has been low recently. The US inflation rate currently sits at 1.6%. The optimal level is around 2.5%, right? What do we need to do to increase inflation, sys?
i dunno, i just wanted to remind everyone that pike is a weirdo goldbug who's been claiming the fed was going to create runaway inflation for the last six years.
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
Inflation has been low recently. The US inflation rate currently sits at 1.6%. The optimal level is around 2.5%, right? What do we need to do to increase inflation, sys?
Ok, thinking inflation is good is pretty mainstream. It would be nice to pay less for things, imo.
We should like try going
You seem to have a very poor understanding of economics.
http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/19/news/economy/low-inflation-risks/ (http://money.cnn.com/2013/04/19/news/economy/low-inflation-risks/)
The Fed typically aims to keep inflation around 2% a year. Inflation at that level is considered healthy, coinciding with solid economic growth, a growing job market and gradually rising wages.
"Economic history has shown that economies perform best with slightly higher levels of inflation, such as 2% to 3%," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist for the Economic Outlook Group. "Low and dormant inflation translates into a dormant economy."
Why is low inflation bad? There are a few key reasons.
First, when companies don't have any leeway to raise prices, they're more apt to cut costs, which could mean a cutback in hiring. Second, if inflation remains so low, consumers are not as motivated to rush out and spend, Baumohl said.
Third, when inflation is low, it doesn't offer a large buffer against deflation if an economic shock occurs. Deflation -- when prices fall -- often freezes up spending, because who wants to go out and buy an item now, if they expect it to be cheaper in six months?
lol, that's Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). I must be message boarding with Steve Liesman and Joe Kernen.
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Not very "mainstream" but we should talk about the labor participation rate!
inflation! let's talk about inflation.
Inflation has been low recently. The US inflation rate currently sits at 1.6%. The optimal level is around 2.5%, right? What do we need to do to increase inflation, sys?
i dunno, i just wanted to remind everyone that pike is a weirdo goldbug who's been claiming the fed was going to create runaway inflation for the last six years.
:thumbs:
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My point is how do you know you're in a bubble until after it's burst?
If this happened now, in many regions, it would mean there was a bubble inside a bigger bubble. :horrorsurprise:
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Back to the general economy...the stock market index prices are super high compare to earnings. Unsustainably high. Either earnings have to increase dramatically or the market is going to tank. Obviously earnings are rear-looking and the price indexes are forward looking so there might not be a disconnect there, but the potential is as high as it's ever been.
data, please. i'd say earnings much more likely to be unsustainably high than valuations are (sp500, small caps seem like they are a little overvalued). valuations certainly aren't cheap, but they aren't outlandishly high. they're pretty normal.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.multpl.com%2Fchart-image-3bb4336d1106c064.png&hash=65ff3ddd995242553e7dafdbc41dbe5caa3d35c1)
You posted the exact chart I would have. Clearly we are at the upper range compared to historic data.
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The Dow Jones index has been increasing by an average of 10% since the stock market first began.
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The Dow Jones index has been increasing by an average of 10% since the stock market first began.
Good for those 30 corporations. No doubt layoffs and an increased use of part-time, no benefit workers has improved their bottom lines, justifying an increased valuation.
However, we're talking about the economy here. Mainstream economics, as a matter of fact. So perhaps you chose the wrong thread.
Regardless, per B.O. circa 2008, and our lord and savior, only rich people can afford stocks. The rest are suffering.
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
Did you yell "BODYBAG" at any point?
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
What was the context and what was your position?
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So you think we might have put a few people out of business today. That its all for naught. You've been doing that everyday for almost forty years Sam. And if this is all for naught then so is everything out there. Its just money; its made up. Pieces of paper with pictures on it so we don't have to kill each other just to get something to eat. It's not wrong. And it's certainly no different today than its ever been. 1637, 1797, 1819, 37, 57, 84, 1901, 07, 29, 1937, 1974, 1987-Jesus, didn't that eff up me up good-92, 97, 2000 and whatever we want to call this. It's all just the same thing over and over; we can't help ourselves. And you and I can't control it, or stop it, or even slow it. Or even ever-so-slightly alter it. We just react. And we make a lot money if we get it right. And we get left by the side of the side of the road if we get it wrong. And there have always been and there always will be the same percentage of winners and losers. Happy foxes and sad sacks. Fat cats and starving dogs in this world. Yeah, there may be more of us today than there's ever been. But the percentages-they stay exactly the same.
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
What was the context and what was your position?
rent control is bad
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
What was the context and what was your position?
rent control is bad
Good work Wintz. Rusty will probably tell you you're wrong, but just imagine future Winters owning a rental property and the man telling you how much you can charge for rent simply because of location.
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john dougie going all-in on his newfound "pro-homeless" campaign. very moderate :love:
:peek:
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That's why we subsidize public transportation, 42.
Rent control breeds slums that can't be sold and eliminates housing construction in rent control areas, so prices go up everywhere else. Plus, very small percentage of rent control housing goes to the poor.
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
What was the context and what was your position?
rent control is bad
Good work Wintz. Rusty will probably tell you you're wrong, but just imagine future Winters owning a rental property and the man telling you how much you can charge for rent simply because of location.
I think rent control is neutral to bad, for the most part. It solves nothing in the long term for tenants, but it isn't as bad for landlords as you describe it. Landlords can charge whatever they want for rent-controlled apartments once they're vacated. The biggest problem I have with it is that it distracts everyone from the real issue that no one ever talks about here, which is a failure to address housing supply.
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i have no interest in getting into a reasoned, nuanced policy discussion with you on this board, john dougie. get out of here :shakesfist:
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
What was the context and what was your position?
rent control is bad
Good work Wintz. Rusty will probably tell you you're wrong, but just imagine future Winters owning a rental property and the man telling you how much you can charge for rent simply because of location.
I think rent control is neutral to bad, for the most part. It solves nothing in the long term for tenants, but it isn't as bad for landlords as you describe it. Landlords can charge whatever they want for rent-controlled apartments once they're vacated. The biggest problem I have with it is that it distracts everyone from the real issue that no one ever talks about here, which is a failure to address housing supply.
Housing supply in Austin and San Marcos is pretty tight right now and it's caused massive rent inflation, especially in Austin. The biggest problem we have is that environmentalists don't want to build outward since a lot of the land we're on is sensitive aquifer recharge/endangered species/river runoff zones, which makes sense. But then many of the same hippies (a lot of the older ones) get all :shakesfist: when developers start building upwards because having a skyline "disrupts their way of life" which is code for them being pissed that Austin's plan to forsake city planning to keep people from moving here didn't work and that 1980's Austin is never coming back.
San Marcos townies are similarly pissed, but their temper tantrums at least sort of make sense because there was a really corrupt deal that went down with City Council in which ecologically sensitive land that was voted on by citizen referendum to be rezoned to parkland "somehow" ended up in the hands of a developer who built student apartments. Problem is now townies basically want to reject anything student housing related while the university grows which basically jacks the rents up.
It's all pretty stupid tbh. What's causing the lack of supply in SF iyo rusty?
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I may or may not have mushed a guy on a rent control discussion today. :eye:
What was the context and what was your position?
rent control is bad
Good work Wintz. Rusty will probably tell you you're wrong, but just imagine future Winters owning a rental property and the man telling you how much you can charge for rent simply because of location.
I think rent control is neutral to bad, for the most part. It solves nothing in the long term for tenants, but it isn't as bad for landlords as you describe it. Landlords can charge whatever they want for rent-controlled apartments once they're vacated. The biggest problem I have with it is that it distracts everyone from the real issue that no one ever talks about here, which is a failure to address housing supply.
Housing supply in Austin and San Marcos is pretty tight right now and it's caused massive rent inflation, especially in Austin. The biggest problem we have is that environmentalists don't want to build outward since a lot of the land we're on is sensitive aquifer recharge/endangered species/river runoff zones, which makes sense. But then many of the same hippies (a lot of the older ones) get all :shakesfist: when developers start building upwards because having a skyline "disrupts their way of life" which is code for them being pissed that Austin's plan to forsake city planning to keep people from moving here didn't work and that 1980's Austin is never coming back.
San Marcos townies are similarly pissed, but their temper tantrums at least sort of make sense because there was a really corrupt deal that went down with City Council in which ecologically sensitive land that was voted on by citizen referendum to be rezoned to parkland "somehow" ended up in the hands of a developer who built student apartments. Problem is now townies basically want to reject anything student housing related while the university grows which basically jacks the rents up.
It's all pretty stupid tbh. What's causing the lack of supply in SF iyo rusty?
pretty similar to Austin.
In November, there was a ballot measure to determine whether a developer could build a building 136 feet instead of 86 feet and it failed by a 2 to 1 margin. Now keep in mind that it was directly across the street from a 220 foot building and a block from a 568 foot building:
http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/editorials/article/Vote-yes-on-S-F-Props-B-and-C-4888941.php
Here is a view - it is where the green fence is:
https://maps.google.com/?ll=37.797207,-122.397154&spn=0.002115,0.004128&t=h&z=19&layer=c&cbll=37.797207,-122.397154&panoid=2U-VKDpFIUADCGcV-0LX1A&cbp=12,161.82,,0,-17.78
So really this was a pretty small development and it got rough ridin' obliterated. No one talks about supply when discussing housing prices, ever. People think that if they just stop Ellis Act evictions, everything will be all hunky dory, but those are just a really small part of the problem.
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That is stupid. Height usually means increased density, and increased density is what places like san fean need if supply is tight.
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D.C., NYC, SF all seem incredibly stupid in their ability to manage housing supply. It is incomprehensible really.
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D.C., NYC, SF all seem incredibly stupid in their ability to manage housing supply. It is incomprehensible really.
it is intentional
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D.C., NYC, SF all seem incredibly stupid in their ability to manage housing supply. It is incomprehensible really.
if you were a property owner in an extremely desirable place to live, where housing supply was constrained, for whatever reason (obviously, manhattan and sf are extremely constrained by geography, aside from whatever planning constraints exist) and as a result, your property was incredibly valuable, how happy would you be about increasing housing supply?
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D.C., NYC, SF all seem incredibly stupid in their ability to manage housing supply. It is incomprehensible really.
if you were a property owner in an extremely desirable place to live, where housing supply was constrained, for whatever reason (obviously, manhattan and sf are extremely constrained by geography, aside from whatever planning constraints exist) and as a result, your property was incredibly valuable, how happy would you be about increasing housing supply?
Yeah, the governments and policy definitely cater to property owners. The tenants just get mad at techies and Ellis Act evictions.
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lol kk
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1000 houses just went up on 3500 square foot lots in another north dallas suburb before I could post this.
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For some people that sounds like paradise, and for others it sounds like throw-up stuff in the mouth
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Guys, MSEcon is about explaining and excusing away the failures of our present economic policies. Lots of :dunno: its out of our control because of [insert vague allusion].
For example, the unemployment, underemployment rate is because of our aging population and technology outpacing education. Its not economics at all, just lazy talking points contrived by democrats.
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building restrictions are pretty disastrous policy for city/county/state govt. because of all of the infrastructure costs first and foremost, but there are other costs as well. While govt. are never going to be as self-interested as the interests lobbying them, a lot of the policy and discussion surrounding housing does not reflect any understanding of the true costs imposed by the rent-seeking behavior of property owners.
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there's prolly a better thread to place this in, but i didn't see it as quickly as i saw this one. fascinating video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
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there's prolly a better thread to place this in, but i didn't see it as quickly as i saw this one. fascinating video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
wish they could just share the text.
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i'm not sure i understand your comment. are you saying you'd rather read a story than watch a vid? normally, i would as well. this is a good video, though. well worth the 15 minutes.
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i'm not sure i understand your comment. are you saying you'd rather read a story than watch a vid? normally, i would as well. this is a good video, though. well worth the 15 minutes.
yeah it got better. I thought it was going to be one of those annoying heavily edited "vlog" things that would save me a lot of time and be less annoying if they just shared the text.
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I watched it. I thought the info was exciting and inspiring and his tone was annoying and shortsighted. Just because he can't imagine new jobs doesn't mean they won't happen. Also, less wealth will be required to live a healthy life, thus making unemployment less worrisome. I haven't really thought this through much, but that's my initial reaction.
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I watched it. I thought the info was exciting and inspiring and his tone was annoying and shortsighted. Just because he can't imagine new jobs doesn't mean they won't happen. Also, less wealth will be required to live a healthy life, thus making unemployment less worrisome. I haven't really thought this through much, but that's my initial reaction.
work will still be done. goods and services produced. it's a matter of distribution of the production, if payment for work performed by humans no longer works to widely distribute those goods and services. could be a paradise, could be hell.
that's my reaction.
btw, i saw this somewhere. kinda fits.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/2014/jul/23/carlos-slim-three-day-working-week-expert-debate-workable
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http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/
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http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/
Perhaps the most damning piece of evidence, according to Brynjolfsson, is a chart that only an economist could love. In economics, productivity—the amount of economic value created for a given unit of input, such as an hour of labor—is a crucial indicator of growth and wealth creation. It is a measure of progress. On the chart Brynjolfsson likes to show, separate lines represent productivity and total employment in the United States. For years after World War II, the two lines closely tracked each other, with increases in jobs corresponding to increases in productivity. The pattern is clear: as businesses generated more value from their workers, the country as a whole became richer, which fueled more economic activity and created even more job
Will read the rest later, but past WWII America is both a small blip in world economic history and a unique situation that shouldn't be expected to repeat itself.
That doesn't mean that the article is invalid, but IMO "the most damning piece of evidence" is.
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http://www.technologyreview.com/news/428429/when-machines-do-your-job/
What is the optimistic view?
Erik Brynjolfsson came up with a great phrase: “digital Athens.” The Athenian citizens had lives of leisure; they got to participate in democracy and create art. That was largely because they had slaves to do the work. Okay, I don’t want human slaves, but in a very, very automated and digitally productive economy you don’t need to work as much, as hard, with as many people, to get the fruits of the economy. So the optimistic version is that we finally have more hours in our week freed up from toil and drudgery.
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http://www.technologyreview.com/news/428429/when-machines-do-your-job/
What is the optimistic view?
Erik Brynjolfsson came up with a great phrase: “digital Athens.” The Athenian citizens had lives of leisure; they got to participate in democracy and create art. That was largely because they had slaves to do the work. Okay, I don’t want human slaves, but in a very, very automated and digitally productive economy you don’t need to work as much, as hard, with as many people, to get the fruits of the economy. So the optimistic version is that we finally have more hours in our week freed up from toil and drudgery.
good advice
To the parent, make sure your kid’s education is geared toward things that machines appear not to be very good at. Computers are still lousy at programming computers. Computers are still bad at figuring out what questions need to be answered. I would encourage every kid these days to buckle down and do a double major, one in the liberal arts and one in the college of sciences.
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Not sure you need to "buckle down" to get a degree in liberal arts, and positive it has no value. Save the 30k in student loans and the corresponding indentured servitude.
Guys, mainstream economics is about apologizing away the failure that are the economic policies of the social welfare state. How, rather than help bring people up, it forces more people into relative poverty.
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Not sure you need to "buckle down" to get a degree in liberal arts, and positive it has no value. Save the 30k in student loans and the corresponding indentured servitude.
you make the liberal arts degree a second degree.
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Not sure you need to "buckle down" to get a degree in liberal arts, and positive it has no value. Save the 30k in student loans and the corresponding indentured servitude.
you make the liberal arts degree a second degree.
Why even bother with it? Take the cost (and opportunity cost) of another year of school and do something more worthwhile with it.
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Not sure you need to "buckle down" to get a degree in liberal arts, and positive it has no value. Save the 30k in student loans and the corresponding indentured servitude.
you make the liberal arts degree a second degree.
Why even bother with it? Take the cost (and opportunity cost) of another year of school and do something more worthwhile with it.
I don't think it would take another year of school if you did knew you were doing it from the start and planned accordingly.
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Not sure you need to "buckle down" to get a degree in liberal arts, and positive it has no value. Save the 30k in student loans and the corresponding indentured servitude.
you make the liberal arts degree a second degree.
Why even bother with it? Take the cost (and opportunity cost) of another year of school and do something more worthwhile with it.
I don't think it would take another year of school if you did knew you were doing it from the start and planned accordingly.
um.. how would it not?
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Not sure you need to "buckle down" to get a degree in liberal arts, and positive it has no value. Save the 30k in student loans and the corresponding indentured servitude.
you make the liberal arts degree a second degree.
Why even bother with it? Take the cost (and opportunity cost) of another year of school and do something more worthwhile with it.
I don't think it would take another year of school if you did knew you were doing it from the start and planned accordingly.
um.. how would it not?
there could be lots of overlap between the majors. I think it would still be worth an extra year though
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I think of myriad things that are better uses of my time than taking extra gen ed courses to satisfy the requirements necessary to obtain a useless degree.
^^^^
Actual application of economic principles
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http://www.technologyreview.com/news/428429/when-machines-do-your-job/
What is the optimistic view?
Erik Brynjolfsson came up with a great phrase: “digital Athens.” The Athenian citizens had lives of leisure; they got to participate in democracy and create art. That was largely because they had slaves to do the work. Okay, I don’t want human slaves, but in a very, very automated and digitally productive economy you don’t need to work as much, as hard, with as many people, to get the fruits of the economy. So the optimistic version is that we finally have more hours in our week freed up from toil and drudgery.
following up on this a bit, a poster on another forum postulated that the price of most (all) goods and services can be reduced to the sum of the price of the land and the time needed to produce them. if followed to a theoretical extreme, given rampant automation, the prices of most human needs would fall to nothing or nearly nothing as time would be removed from the equation and only land scarcity would remain to drive prices above zero.
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hmm, I suppose you could synthesize water. Theoretically.
And I know people are already experimenting with growing plants vertically for agriculture. I saw pictures from the Tulare Farm show of a company that devised a way to quickly grow grass for cattle consumption in some sort of vertical orientation. I wish I could find it.
So maybe the land thing won't even be a limit?
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hmm, I suppose you could synthesize water. Theoretically.
And I know people are already experimenting with growing plants vertically for agriculture. I saw pictures from the Tulare Farm show of a company that devised a way to quickly grow grass for cattle consumption in some sort of vertical orientation. I wish I could find it.
So maybe the land thing won't even be a limit?
i don't even know how to respond to this. most plants grow vertically.
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hmm, I suppose you could synthesize water. Theoretically.
And I know people are already experimenting with growing plants vertically for agriculture. I saw pictures from the Tulare Farm show of a company that devised a way to quickly grow grass for cattle consumption in some sort of vertical orientation. I wish I could find it.
So maybe the land thing won't even be a limit?
i don't even know how to respond to this. most plants grow vertically.
It's something like this:
http://foddermachine.com/fodder-machine-hydroponics-fodder-machine/
Right now they just pull the pods out and feed them to cattle, but the idea could apply to human food.
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http://www.technologyreview.com/news/428429/when-machines-do-your-job/
What is the optimistic view?
Erik Brynjolfsson came up with a great phrase: “digital Athens.” The Athenian citizens had lives of leisure; they got to participate in democracy and create art. That was largely because they had slaves to do the work. Okay, I don’t want human slaves, but in a very, very automated and digitally productive economy you don’t need to work as much, as hard, with as many people, to get the fruits of the economy. So the optimistic version is that we finally have more hours in our week freed up from toil and drudgery.
following up on this a bit, a poster on another forum postulated that the price of most (all) goods and services can be reduced to the sum of the price of the land and the time needed to produce them. if followed to a theoretical extreme, given rampant automation, the prices of most human needs would fall to nothing or nearly nothing as time would be removed from the equation and only land scarcity would remain to drive prices above zero.
Land and resource scarcity. You still need energy and water. Plus to have rampant automation, you would have to figure in equipment costs plus maintenance. That's all that is keeping prices above zero today, really, but land and resources are only becoming more scarce. Expect costs to go up, not down.
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http://www.technologyreview.com/news/428429/when-machines-do-your-job/
What is the optimistic view?
Erik Brynjolfsson came up with a great phrase: “digital Athens.” The Athenian citizens had lives of leisure; they got to participate in democracy and create art. That was largely because they had slaves to do the work. Okay, I don’t want human slaves, but in a very, very automated and digitally productive economy you don’t need to work as much, as hard, with as many people, to get the fruits of the economy. So the optimistic version is that we finally have more hours in our week freed up from toil and drudgery.
following up on this a bit, a poster on another forum postulated that the price of most (all) goods and services can be reduced to the sum of the price of the land and the time needed to produce them. if followed to a theoretical extreme, given rampant automation, the prices of most human needs would fall to nothing or nearly nothing as time would be removed from the equation and only land scarcity would remain to drive prices above zero.
Land and resource scarcity. You still need energy and water. Plus to have rampant automation, you would have to figure in equipment costs plus maintenance. That's all that is keeping prices above zero today, really, but land and resources are only becoming more scarce. Expect costs to go up, not down.
Energy (with the new carbon taxes), labor, and water costs are the driving force for for anything farmed or manufactured now and more so in the future. Prices will necessarily skyrocket.
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I don't think you guys are thinking as far into the future as the poster sys was referring to.
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I don't think you guys are thinking as far into the future as the poster sys was referring to.
I think you are being the equivalent of the guys 20 years ago who thought the future would be all jetpacks and flying cars.
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I don't think you guys are thinking as far into the future as the poster sys was referring to.
I think you are being the equivalent of the guys 20 years ago who thought the future would be all jetpacks and flying cars.
I'm thinking 500+ years into the future and I imagine that we won't be able to imagine what it will look like.
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I don't think you guys are thinking as far into the future as the poster sys was referring to.
I think you are being the equivalent of the guys 20 years ago who thought the future would be all jetpacks and flying cars.
I'm thinking 500+ years into the future and I imagine that we won't be able to imagine what it will look like.
Oh. I was looking 100 years into the future, and it is going to be really damned expensive to eat meat in 2114. The rent is also going to be really high. Like, mind bogglingly high.
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I don't think you guys are thinking as far into the future as the poster sys was referring to.
I think you are being the equivalent of the guys 20 years ago who thought the future would be all jetpacks and flying cars.
I'm thinking 500+ years into the future and I imagine that we won't be able to imagine what it will look like.
Oh. I was looking 100 years into the future, and it is going to be really damned expensive to eat meat in 2114. The rent is also going to be really high. Like, mind bogglingly high.
nah, there's still plenty of room that far out as far as rents go, IMO. At least in the US.
I agree meat may be relatively expensive and think people in the states will have to adjust away from suburban lifestyles, but don't think things will be wildly different, economically. At least in 100 years.
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water would be a component of land. energy can be reduced to land and time (for example coal = coal bearing land plus time to mine, plus the land and time to produce the mining equipment, plus the equipment, labor and energy to transport transport it, etc.). any energy i can think of can be reduced to land + time as well, though the %s of the energy that are land and that are time may vary greatly.
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water would be a component of land. energy can be reduced to land and time (for example coal = coal bearing land plus time to mine, plus the land and time to produce the mining equipment, plus the equipment, labor and energy to transport transport it, etc.). any energy i can think of can be reduced to land + time as well, though the %s of the energy that are land and that are time may vary greatly.
In places like California and Europe, taxes will be the driving force as to what producers will charge for energy, goods, and services.
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Land and resource scarcity. You still need energy and water. Plus to have rampant automation, you would have to figure in equipment costs plus maintenance. That's all that is keeping prices above zero today, really, but land and resources are only becoming more scarce. Expect costs to go up, not down.
what resources do expect to be scarce? if you have free labor (robots), energy can be harvested for free, if you have free energy, water can be treated and distributed for free. equipment is free, maintenance is free.
when you allow the cost of labor (labor = time) to go to zero, most things become free or almost free to produce.
costs of almost everything have come down from the industrial revolution on, while populations (demand) have exploded.
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Land and resource scarcity. You still need energy and water. Plus to have rampant automation, you would have to figure in equipment costs plus maintenance. That's all that is keeping prices above zero today, really, but land and resources are only becoming more scarce. Expect costs to go up, not down.
what resources do expect to be scarce? if you have free labor (robots), energy can be harvested for free, if you have free energy, water can be treated and distributed for free. equipment is free, maintenance is free.
when you allow the cost of labor (labor = time) to go to zero, most things become free or almost free to produce.
costs of almost everything have come down from the industrial revolution on, while populations (demand) have exploded.
good fields to got into for humans: science/research
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Land and resource scarcity. You still need energy and water. Plus to have rampant automation, you would have to figure in equipment costs plus maintenance. That's all that is keeping prices above zero today, really, but land and resources are only becoming more scarce. Expect costs to go up, not down.
what resources do expect to be scarce? if you have free labor (robots), energy can be harvested for free, if you have free energy, water can be treated and distributed for free. equipment is free, maintenance is free.
when you allow the cost of labor (labor = time) to go to zero, most things become free or almost free to produce.
costs of almost everything have come down from the industrial revolution on, while populations (demand) have exploded.
While plausible, it would also require the abolition of our current economic model to benefit all of humanity.
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Land and resource scarcity. You still need energy and water. Plus to have rampant automation, you would have to figure in equipment costs plus maintenance. That's all that is keeping prices above zero today, really, but land and resources are only becoming more scarce. Expect costs to go up, not down.
what resources do expect to be scarce? if you have free labor (robots), energy can be harvested for free, if you have free energy, water can be treated and distributed for free. equipment is free, maintenance is free.
when you allow the cost of labor (labor = time) to go to zero, most things become free or almost free to produce.
costs of almost everything have come down from the industrial revolution on, while populations (demand) have exploded.
This might be the dumbest rough ridin' thing I've ever read in the pit. Good gawd I hope you're trolling.
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hmm, I suppose you could synthesize water. Theoretically.
And I know people are already experimenting with growing plants vertically for agriculture. I saw pictures from the Tulare Farm show of a company that devised a way to quickly grow grass for cattle consumption in some sort of vertical orientation. I wish I could find it.
So maybe the land thing won't even be a limit?
i don't even know how to respond to this. most plants grow vertically.
Working with raw hydrogen and oxygen seems like a vertical endeavor as well. These people are so rough ridin' stupid it's hard to fathom.
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Welcome to fantasy land, population Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). This entire thread is an amalgamation of idiot, moron and dolt. It's perfect and incomprehensibly frustrating all at once. It is, THE PIT!!
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Welcome to fantasy land, population Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).
THE WORD
:D
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Welcome to fantasy land, population Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).
THE WORD
:D
IN THE YEAR 2514, natural resources will be free because robots will farm endless land (which of course includes water).
Also, nobody will need shoes because people will walk on their hands, and video games will be powered by lava.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FE9qGNrXIAUhS83?format=jpg&name=medium)
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And those 200k have about 20 job offers
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this is one of the reasons dax has disappeared. and record low turkey prices.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10271779/US-adds-just-210-00-jobs-November.html (ftp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10271779/US-adds-just-210-00-jobs-November.html)
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Inflation
https://www.reuters.com/business/meat-packers-profit-margins-jumped-300-during-pandemic-white-house-economics-2021-12-10/
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