Mainstream Economics Thread

[Justwin]

Another crap sandwich left behind by the sock puppet president




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Dax, I agree with you that our national debt is something that is concerning and the interest that is going to be due on it in the near future is going to constrain the federal budget and/or the economy.

However, discussing the national debt in terms of total public debt outstanding really hampers your ability to be taken seriously or credibly. You should be discussing it in terms of the national debt held by the public. This figure is still quite high at nearly $29 trillion and is roughly 100% of GDP.

[Pete]

Potentially some more lower cost engineering disruption to the defense industry.

https://apnews.com/article/supersonic-flight-california-boom-sound-barrier-5a38f602ad6453939885af682827a69e

“XB-1’s supersonic flight demonstrates that the technology for passenger supersonic flight has arrived,” Boom founder and CEO Blake Scholl said in a statement. “A small band of talented and dedicated engineers has accomplished what previously took governments and billions of dollars.”

[michigancat]

Potentially some more lower cost engineering disruption to the defense industry.

https://apnews.com/article/supersonic-flight-california-boom-sound-barrier-5a38f602ad6453939885af682827a69e

“XB-1’s supersonic flight demonstrates that the technology for passenger supersonic flight has arrived,” Boom founder and CEO Blake Scholl said in a statement. “A small band of talented and dedicated engineers has accomplished what previously took governments and billions of dollars.”

The technology for supersonic passenger flights has arrived?

[sonofdaxjones]

Another crap sandwich left behind by the sock puppet president




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Dax, I agree with you that our national debt is something that is concerning and the interest that is going to be due on it in the near future is going to constrain the federal budget and/or the economy.

However, discussing the national debt in terms of total public debt outstanding really hampers your ability to be taken seriously or credibly. You should be discussing it in terms of the national debt held by the public. This figure is still quite high at nearly $29 trillion and is roughly 100% of GDP.

I have specifically discussed that auto loan defaults and credit card defaults are at levels seen in 2007 and 2008 on this blog.

Just a couple of weeks ago in fact.

It's hard to take drive by posters seriously.

[steve dave]

Dax brings up a good topic (unintentionally) though. Billy Bob does not need a $100k+ F250.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/rising-auto-loan-delinquencies-and-high-monthly-payments-20240926.html


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[steve dave]

Billy Bob does need a place to live though




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[Pete]

Potentially some more lower cost engineering disruption to the defense industry.

https://apnews.com/article/supersonic-flight-california-boom-sound-barrier-5a38f602ad6453939885af682827a69e

“XB-1’s supersonic flight demonstrates that the technology for passenger supersonic flight has arrived,” Boom founder and CEO Blake Scholl said in a statement. “A small band of talented and dedicated engineers has accomplished what previously took governments and billions of dollars.”

The technology for supersonic passenger flights has arrived?

The point is the cost, and the impact on barriers to entry

[steve dave]

I was at some airport that had an OG concorde parked out on the tarmac as a show piece once. don't remember where it was. they are tiny. basically really pointy cessna citation.

[Pete]

All the legacy contractors on this type of technology are once again the same as the defense contractors. Every time one of these deals comes up where a band of smart dudes out performs the legacy contractors at a fraction of the cost. We get further and further away from being beholden to those motherfuckers who have Arguably run the country since Eisenhower.

[Pete]

Into the point of this thread, lower our national debt or at least be able to make the interest payments on our debt and have something left over afterwards, by spending less on defense without sacrificing quality

[steve dave]

Into the point of this thread, lower our national debt or at least be able to make the interest payments on our debt and have something left over afterwards, by spending less on defense without sacrificing quality

I'm onboard with that pete

[michigancat]

I don't think our government has much motivation to lower defense costs. They are federal white collar jobs programs.

[steve dave]

I don't think our government has much motivation to lower defense costs. They are federal white collar jobs programs.

Well, I mean, Boeing got too cozy in their spot obviously and see what happened? I agree with Pete that we need serious new players (for me to fly safely at minimum).

[michigancat]

I don't think our government has much motivation to lower defense costs. They are federal white collar jobs programs.

Well, I mean, Boeing got too cozy in their spot obviously and see what happened? I agree with Pete that we need serious new players (for me to fly safely at minimum).

Yeah I'm skeptical that smaller companies with less funding will avoid future catastrophes unless somehow it makes it easier to throw their executives in jail when their decisions kill a bunch of people. But who knows

[steve dave]

I think it's a cyclical market like anything else:

1) innovation and new great stuff with little oversight
2) that crap murders tons of people
3) oversight of that stuff
4) that stuff is safer and still rules but gets expensive
5) no players left so that stuff gets away with doing what they want
6) either new better stuff disrupts or people get fed up with that crap (we are here now on both points)
7) little oversight and new crap that rules
8) murders again
9) the oversight one again (hopefully we all live to this point)

[Pete]

We’re seeing it be done successfully by new players, with cars, drones, airplanes, rockets.

I think everybody agrees that the status quo needs to be changed. They just seems to be much disagreement about how to make the change and on what timeline with the realities of what kind of political will can be summoned.

[Pete]

Trump’s probably the best shot at disrupting the legacy defense structure since Eisenhower

[steve dave]

there is no new crap being done with cars outside of china. and that's mostly just china doing china on cars. like they did social media. and AI. and everything else. real talk vivek was just spitting facts about that stuff.

[Pete]

And there’s plenty of conspiracy theories out there that suggests that it’s not simply a matter of it being a very expensive area, but that the leaders of that area are alleged to have been behind all manner of mischief with the CIA

[Pete]

there is no new crap being done with cars outside of china. and that's mostly just china doing china on cars. like they did social media. and AI. and everything else. real talk vivek was just spitting facts about that stuff.

Oh, I completely agree on the quality, I just mean that there are some that have started like Rivian, etc. but nobody can compete with the legacy car companies on any scale yet apart from Tesla

[steve dave]

there is no new crap being done with cars outside of china. and that's mostly just china doing china on cars. like they did social media. and AI. and everything else. real talk vivek was just spitting facts about that stuff.

Oh, I completely agree on the quality, I just mean that there are some that have started like Rivian, etc. but nobody can compete with the legacy car companies on any scale yet apart from Tesla

I know a lot unfortunately about Rivian and they aren't doing crap other than marketing and sucking govt. teet. Same with tesla. it's just packaging and marketing for both. neither innovate anything.

[steve dave]

Today. not saying tesla or rivian weren't doing something notable at some point in the past. but they certainly aren't today. actually I've had a relationship with rivian for about as long as they've been around and it's mostly teet and marketing for 90% of their existence.

[Pete]

Man, I had high hopes for them

[steve dave]

Man, I had high hopes for them

ask kat kid about my excitement in the SUPER SECRET INVESTING PRIVATE TEXT GROUP when I first started talking to them. we were so young/naive. your late 30s are a golden age of discovery.

[steve dave]

there is no new crap being done with cars outside of china. and that's mostly just china doing china on cars. like they did social media. and AI. and everything else. real talk vivek was just spitting facts about that stuff.

also hold onto your ass when china passes everyone in chip innovation. what do you think? 6 months from now? we will have nothing left other than natural resources. we will be best served to just relent now and become a giant stupider western europe consumer imo with a side of crude oil reserves.