Mainstream Economics Thread

[Stupid Fitz]

Relax guys, it's just a way to force other countries to the negotiating table for more favorable trade terms

We know WW. Its the only move he has and the dumb dumbs eat it up every time because "he's tough on those damn Canadians"!!!!!!!!!!

[sonofdaxjones]

Stupid Fitz (emphasis on always mad and stupid)

Does Canada have tariff rate quotas on any US goods?

You're entire non-specific - just pissed off that Trump got elected shtick is fantastic, tho

[steve dave]

NAFTA was irl bitb


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[Pete]

This is what Elon Musk’s Gronk AI has to say about Trump’s newly nominated friend-of-George-Soros Treasury Secretary.

Scott Bessent, has had a notable career in finance, including a significant period working for George Soros at Soros Fund Management. Here are some insights and quotes or paraphrases from Scott Bessent related to George Soros:

- **On Working with Soros:** Bessent has described George Soros as having a "Wooden-style genius" when it comes to investing, referencing the legendary UCLA basketball coach John Wooden, implying that despite political differences, Soros's investment prowess is unmatched. Bessent emphasized that investing, like sports, is a meritocracy where the focus should be on learning from the best, regardless of political views (Source: Forbes article about Bessent's nomination).

- **Soros's Influence:** Bessent's career was significantly shaped by his time with Soros, where he played a role in high-profile currency trades like the bet against the British pound and the Japanese yen. While direct quotes from Bessent about Soros are less about Soros's philosophy or personal beliefs and more about the professional impact Soros had on him, Bessent has often highlighted the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends, a strategy he likely honed under Soros.

- **Philosophical Differences:** Although there isn't a wealth of direct quotes from Bessent about Soros's personal beliefs, his own political journey from supporting Democrats to becoming a key economic advisor for Trump suggests a nuanced perspective on Soros's influence. Bessent's move towards supporting Trump's policies indicates a professional respect for Soros's acumen but a divergence in political ideology.

- **Soros’s Trading Philosophy:** In broader discussions about investing, Bessent might echo some of Soros's notable views, like the unpredictability of markets and the importance of being flexible in investment strategies. However, specific quotes from Bessent on these topics directly linked to Soros are not commonly found in public records.

These insights are drawn from various sources discussing Bessent's career, his relationship with Soros, and his own statements on investing and political involvement. Bessent's connection with Soros has been highlighted in the context of his appointment as Treasury Secretary by Donald Trump, where his past association with Soros was noted, though his own political stance has shifted over time.

[Dugout DickStone]

that guy is closer to Soros than his own kid

[Stupid Fitz]

Deep State IMO

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

He knows how Soros makes his money, in detail.

[sonofdaxjones]

An absolute massacre in the full time job arena. Don’t even bother to call an ambulance - just send a hearse





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[steve dave]

I think a December cut is back to “likely”. Good thread here.

https://x.com/jeannasmialek/status/1865036682833133786?s=46


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[Justwin]

An absolute massacre in the full time job arena. Don’t even bother to call an ambulance - just send a hearse





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In your mind, is the labor market adjusting to a more sustainable unemployment rate a bad thing?

[sonofdaxjones]

What is a "sustainable unemployment rate" ?

What does that have to do with the arterial level bleeding of  full time jobs in our economy?

Are you trying to tell us that the blood bath in full time jobs is good? (as December layoffs accelerate)

[Justwin]

What is a "sustainable unemployment rate" ?

What does that have to do with the arterial level bleeding of  full time jobs in our economy?

Are you trying to tell us that the blood bath in full time jobs is good? (as December layoffs accelerate)

I would define a sustainable unemployment rate as one that is close to the noncyclical rate of unemployment. I would estimate the current noncyclical rate of unemployment to be in the 4.25 - 4.75%. The noncyclical rate of unemployment is generally regarded as one that would not be acceleratory to inflation.

I would not classify the current loss of jobs as a bloodbath and I think that some job loss was needed to restore some slack in the labor market. Inflation is still a little on the high side, so removing inflationary pressures from the labor market will aid in bringing inflation down.

Another factor affecting the number of people employed is the wave of baby boomers that are currently retiring. A lot of them are completely exiting the labor market while some are moving from full time to part time employment. I think this will continue to affect the labor market for the next decade.

The last thing to look at is that the proportion of people that are experiencing frictional unemployment is about 60% and those experiencing structural unemployment is about 40% of all unemployment. This is reflective of a labor market that is not distressed. If those numbers get flipped, I would be very concerned about the labor market.

[sonofdaxjones]

That's wonderful - but changes nothing, full time jobs are hemorrhaging out over the last year.

In addition - no one should trust a thing coming out of entities like the BLS until further notice.

When cook to the books to the tune of nearly a million jobs over the course of a year to fly partisan driven political air cover - you cannot be trusted.

[Justwin]

That's wonderful - but changes nothing, full time jobs are hemorrhaging out over the last year.

In addition - no one should trust a thing coming out of entities like the BLS until further notice.

When cook to the books to the tune of nearly a million jobs over the course of a year to fly partisan driven political air cover - you cannot be trusted.

Could you remind me what the source of data was for the graphic you posted earlier?

[LickNeckey]

 

[sonofdaxjones]

That's wonderful - but changes nothing, full time jobs are hemorrhaging out over the last year.

In addition - no one should trust a thing coming out of entities like the BLS until further notice.

When cook to the books to the tune of nearly a million jobs over the course of a year to fly partisan driven political air cover - you cannot be trusted.

Could you remind me what the source of data was for the graphic you posted earlier?

relative to new job creation.

[LickNeckey]

Is this the further notice I need to trust the thing you posted from BLS?

[sonofdaxjones]

I should have been more succinct and less broad brushed.  This is what is called a mea culpa . . . . but you're going to nitpick it to death because that's all you got. So carry on.

[Spracne]

J've never seen dax get intimidated on here, but Justwin has done it.

[sonofdaxjones]

If admitting that I was a bit too hyperbolic is being "intimidated" then I suppose you have a point.

I've admitted to overstating things before on here - FYI

[wetwillie]

I honestly never thought I'd see this day

[steve dave]

Amaze


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[Stupid Fitz]

Lol at him backing off a post about a BLS statistic but not about defending MAGA creeps above. Baby ( ) steps I guess......

[sonofdaxjones]

WTF are you talking about?

[BIG APPLE CAT]

you guys need to shut up, dax has a rich history of walking back his statements that were a bit on the hyperbolic side. source? this very thread. Additional sources: every thread ever. i'm not going to look it up for you.