Mainstream Economics Thread

[Kat Kid]

https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1856166118508904560

what is this according to? this guy's opinion? I was expecting at least a dramatic chart.

[sonofdaxjones]

If you're asking about the dollar amount, look no further than the Fed

[star seed 7]

FedOPhiles lmao

[hjfklmor]

https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1856166118508904560

what is this according to? this guy's opinion? I was expecting at least a dramatic chart.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Mr. Dowd has not read the staff report in question beyond the abstract, if that. Judging from his other tweets, he seems level-headed and not reactionary at all.

[sonofdaxjones]

Who holds the majority of commercial real estate debt in these United States?

[star seed 7]

https://twitter.com/DowdEdward/status/1856166118508904560

what is this according to? this guy's opinion? I was expecting at least a dramatic chart.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Mr. Dowd has not read the staff report in question beyond the abstract, if that. Judging from his other tweets, he seems level-headed and not reactionary at all.

Lol his most recent tweet is about him being on the Alex Jones show

[sonofdaxjones]

StalkerBot2000 is going to lead the charge into #blueanongE pearl clutching overdrive . . . again

1000% onbrand

[hjfklmor]

Who holds the majority of commercial real estate debt in these United States?

Banks. It's in the staff report.

[sonofdaxjones]

Who holds the majority of commercial real estate debt in these United States?

Banks. It's in the staff report.

. . . which kind of banks?

[hjfklmor]

Who holds the majority of commercial real estate debt in these United States?

Banks. It's in the staff report.

. . . which kind of banks?

What are you fishing for here? The point of the research paper is that lower capitalized banks are more likely to utilize the strategy of "extend and pretend" to keep their balance sheets well capitalized as compared to banks that are better positioned, which can lead to less new lending and a potential problem if these distressed loans do not improve after consistent use of such strategy. It is not some doom saying prophecy that the commercial banking system is about to fail. It is one of many research papers published by Fed staff to be used in financial publications nationwide.

The paper has a chart that breaks down commercial debt by holder. This person is using a random research paper by Fed staff to drum up engagement and get himself an appearance on Newsmax or, apparently, the Alex Jones show. Extend and pretend has been used many times historically, including in 2008 (where it worked to great success). The Federal Reserve is not going to "hide" this problem through a staff report done by themselves.

[sonofdaxjones]

Regional Banks was the answer . . . regional banks

They hold approximately 70% of the commercial real estate paper

[hjfklmor]

That is both not true, according to literally the research paper we are discussing.. and who the eff cares? You're ridiculous.

[sonofdaxjones]

That is both not true, according to literally the research paper we are discussing.. and who the eff cares? You're ridiculous.

As of a few months ago, Morgan Stanley research showed that regional banks hold 70% (or more) of the  $2 trillion plus in CRE loans maturing by 2025. 

SVB (for example) failing came straight out of the blue.

A worst case scenario stress test early this year showed up to $570 billion in CRE losses.

Not to mention tumbling valuations of CRE



There's still a raging debate on the health of regional banks,

[hjfklmor]

That is both not true, according to literally the research paper we are discussing.. and who the eff cares? You're ridiculous.

As of a few months ago, Morgan Stanley research showed that regional banks hold 70% (or more) of the  $2 trillion plus in CRE loans maturing by 2025. 

SVB (for example) failing came straight out of the blue.

A worst case scenario stress test early this year showed up to $570 billion in CRE losses.

Not to mention tumbling valuations of CRE



There's still a raging debate on the health of regional banks,

70% of CRE debt maturing by 2025 is not 70% of all CRE debt, I'm not entirely sure you understand why SVB failed, a worst case stress test is of course going to show bad outcomes, and I don't understand your obsession with regional banks over national banks or community banks but okay. You win. Sky's falling.

[sonofdaxjones]

LMAO . . . in no way am I saying the sky is falling, and the regional bank exposure to CRE by % of total assets is massively higher than major banks.

My "obsession" with regional banks doesn't exist.  With that said what happens when regional banks fail . . . bank consolidation ensues, is that a good thing?

I absolutely know how SVB failed, I did not discuss specifics beyond the fact that it came out of the blue.

I don't get why guys get so pissed off (but it's hilarious) when we start peeling off the paper from this economy and the risks that lie ahead.

[Cire]

Commercial real estate tanking in the wake of covid/working from home is very unsurprising isn't it???

Expect bailout

[sonofdaxjones]

The national debt increased by $257.8 billion in Oct'24.

The 2nd highest debt blowout 1st month of a new FFY on record, only behind Harris-Biden's first Oct new FFY in 2020.

FYI these types of posts will continue after Trump is sworn in.

I just look forward to the Krugman Reverse . . . debt and deficit spending will be bad starting mid Jan 2025

[wetwillie]

At least the jobs report will be real again

[Pete]

Yes. Inexplicably, I’m sure.

[michigancat]

At least the jobs report will be real again

Well, if it continues to be positive

[wetwillie]

If not the deep state will be sabotaging it

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

The jobs report will be crap without the 43,000 new government jobs per month.

[Tobias]

[sonofdaxjones]

The jobs report will be crap without the 43,000 new government jobs per month.

Better stop, talking about the massive government hiring and government subsidized hiring gets the #blueanongE'rs really pissed off.

Oh and T&P's if you bring up the 875K "new" jobs that got erased with a click of a mouse.  You've been warned.

[steve dave]

yeah


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