Mainstream Economics Thread

[Justwin]

I find that kind of swing in GDP growth to not be fundamentally justified.

That does not mean I think the GDPNow forecast is wrong or that GDP growth won't actually be -3.8%. I just mean if it ends up being that, I think it is an overreaction by a lot of consumers and businesses to the uncertainty that has been created by the Trump administration and to the threat of tariffs.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I'm not sure if that's enough of a drop for any of the house/senate republicans to change anything.

[Justwin]

From what I have read the swing in the GDPNow is being driven by an increase in imports which is driving Net Exports further negative. This increase in imports is likely due to stocking up by US importers in anticipation of tariffs. Eventually, importers will not be stocking up and Net Exports will swing the other way which will cause GDP growth to swing in the positive direction.

[Rage Against the McKee]

From what I have read the swing in the GDPNow is being driven by an increase in imports which is driving Net Exports further negative. This increase in imports is likely due to stocking up by US importers in anticipation of tariffs. Eventually, importers will not be stocking up and Net Exports will swing the other way which will cause GDP growth to swing in the positive direction.

That makes sense to me if the tariffs don't get implemented.

[Justwin]

From what I have read the swing in the GDPNow is being driven by an increase in imports which is driving Net Exports further negative. This increase in imports is likely due to stocking up by US importers in anticipation of tariffs. Eventually, importers will not be stocking up and Net Exports will swing the other way which will cause GDP growth to swing in the positive direction.

That makes sense to me if the tariffs don't get implemented.

It would also be the case even if tariffs get implemented.

[Rage Against the McKee]

From what I have read the swing in the GDPNow is being driven by an increase in imports which is driving Net Exports further negative. This increase in imports is likely due to stocking up by US importers in anticipation of tariffs. Eventually, importers will not be stocking up and Net Exports will swing the other way which will cause GDP growth to swing in the positive direction.

That makes sense to me if the tariffs don't get implemented.

It would also be the case even if tariffs get implemented.

Probably depends on how much higher our goods end up costing, plus the effect of retaliatory tariffs.

[Justwin]

From what I have read the swing in the GDPNow is being driven by an increase in imports which is driving Net Exports further negative. This increase in imports is likely due to stocking up by US importers in anticipation of tariffs. Eventually, importers will not be stocking up and Net Exports will swing the other way which will cause GDP growth to swing in the positive direction.

That makes sense to me if the tariffs don't get implemented.

It would also be the case even if tariffs get implemented.

Probably depends on how much higher our goods end up costing, plus the effect of retaliatory tariffs.

No matter what, importers can't keep stocking up forever.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

People who grow mountains of commodities so huge they couldn't be consumed domestically in 100 years have to be excited about this (just kidding I'm sure red state senators will come thru for them)

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896630585273241939

[Rage Against the McKee]

Is he saying that he's putting an export tax on our agricultural products?

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Is he saying that he's putting an export tax on our agricultural products?

I assume this is a retaliatory tariff from countries where we typically export our mountains of surplus commodities.
This is just basic ECON 101 stuff.

[Cire]

I do not think MAGA GAF if people making under 150k a year, can't afford to buy anthing.

[Dugout DickStone]

I do not think MAGA GAF if people making under 150k a year, can't afford to buy anthing.

or that all farmers go bankrupt

[Cire]

I do not think MAGA GAF if people making under 150k a year, can't afford to buy anthing.

or that all farmers go bankrupt

Correct

Great consolodation of assets and capital is what's really going on IMO.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

If tariffs are good, why stop with just 25%? Why not do 75% or 100% or 1 million percent for good measure?

https://x.com/AP/status/1896654998416625664

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Everybody calm down.
Just talked to some of the guys down at the COOP and they are getting geared up to transition from producing a gajillion bushels of corn to growing bananas and avocados here in central Kansas. Gonna take the fourth graders out of class to pick the bounty (since all of the dirty brown farm workers will be deported by the time the harvest ripens). Should be pretty simple with no supply or price disruptions for anybody.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Man, I miss the days when our senile president just stayed in the basement and kept quiet:

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1896653734551151031

[sonofdaxjones]

$100 billion more in investments in chip making in Arizona.

 

Tim Cook pledges $500 billion in Apple investment in US production and facilities.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

"Patriot Farmers"
This sounds more Stalinist every day.

https://x.com/GavinBade/status/1896924670236180724

[Dugout DickStone]

if they wanna lose their ass I don't see the problem.  lose that ass

[sonofdaxjones]

I suppose modern Stasi aka #blueanon aka Democrats would recognize Stalinism.

So best pay attention


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[steve dave]

farmers pulled out the cattle prod to their own nuts move

https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1896951470727336260

[cfbandyman]

if they wanna lose their ass I don't see the problem.  lose that ass

Yup, eff around, find out

[Stupid Fitz]

If tariffs are good, why stop with just 25%? Why not do 75% or 100% or 1 million percent for good measure?

https://x.com/AP/status/1896654998416625664

Completely agree. Tariffs rule so hard. Think about it. We now get a 25% tariff on stuff and they react and also now get 25% tariffs on stuff. Everyone totally wins!!!!!!!!

[sonofdaxjones]

StupidFitz both on a personal level and for 'Merica likes to see other countries go in unlubed.

Same dudes who had us dropping trillions on BS around the globe over the last 25 years with absolutely nothing to show for it besides $37 trillion in IOU's.

SMDH

[LickNeckey]

https://bsky.app/profile/cjzero.bsky.social/post/3ljjmipq77224