goemaw.com
TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on March 12, 2017, 06:32:25 PM
-
Here are their player stats. I'll try to get some team stats later. Plenty of places to talk about your hatred for oscar, talk about the game(s) in the NCAA tournament here.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2FgoEMAW.com%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F03%2FWake-Forest.png&hash=c5f59d416d9b6ac5f57dd8f45f9cb9f95d65fce3)
-
what did they finish kenpom like mid 30's?
-
I've watched one of their games. They're not very talented.
-
what did they finish kenpom like mid 30's?
30, one spot behind us.
-
LOL so is John Collins all they have or what?
-
I think DJamer is going to foul out of this contest.
-
I think DJamer is going to foul out of this contest.
Hopefully no one dunks in pre game! :Carl:
-
Massey formula says "Cats by 3" with a 58% win probability on neutral court.
http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=292154&t0=Kansas+State&h=0&s1=292154&t1=Wake+Forest
-
https://www.google.com/amp/deadspin.com/john-collins-might-just-will-wake-forest-into-the-tourn-1792899520/amp
It appears a battle between Collins and DJamer is coming.
-
Sort of the ACC version of Oklahoma State. Great offense, bad defense, fast pace. Of course, their best player is a post and OSU is guard oriented.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2FgoEMAW.com%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F03%2FWake-Forest-vs-K-State.png&hash=b2ae77dd520d296cf2e79fe7e1e484d121623309)
-
can you get stats for the starting 5 median AND mean bicep circumferences? I have an algo that will perfectly predict the outcome of this game based on those 2 inputs.
-
alternatively if someone would just post a photo of each bicep in question I can extrapolate the necessary data using modern analysis techniques.
-
They don't TO the ball much.
They get to the line a decent amount, and they make them. 77% on FTs.
Teams shoot a lot of 3s against them. Almost 40% of shots by their ACC opponents were 3PA
-
I've actually seen Wake in person twice since I've last seen K-State. I don't think they're very good at all. DJamer won't guard Collins, that will be Dean-o. DJamer will guard Mitoglu, who I actually like, he's solid but unremarkable, decent defender. Our guards should eat them up, they aren't deadly shooters, the lottery should be interesting.
-
I've actually seen Wake in person twice since I've last seen K-State. I don't think they're very good at all. DJamer won't guard Collins, that will be Dean-o. DJamer will guard Mitoglu, who I actually like, he's solid but unremarkable, decent defender. Our guards should eat them up, they aren't deadly shooters, the lottery should be interesting.
What games did you attend??
Collins has gotten to the FT more the 2nd half of the year. He attempted 5.1 the first 17 games. Attempted 8.3 the last 15. He looks like someone who may be prone to foul trouble. Plays about 2/3 of the game. I noticed that in 10 of the past 21 games, he has had 4 or 5 fouls
-
I am concerned that Arians, the 6-6 grad transfer from Milwaukee that shot 40% from 3 might get lucky
-
I've actually seen Wake in person twice since I've last seen K-State. I don't think they're very good at all. DJamer won't guard Collins, that will be Dean-o. DJamer will guard Mitoglu, who I actually like, he's solid but unremarkable, decent defender. Our guards should eat them up, they aren't deadly shooters, the lottery should be interesting.
What games did you attend??
Collins has gotten to the FT more the 2nd half of the year. He attempted 5.1 the first 17 games. Attempted 8.3 the last 15. He looks like someone who may be prone to foul trouble. Plays about 2/3 of the game. I noticed that in 10 of the past 21 games, he has had 4 or 5 fouls
I saw them beat Georgia Tech last season and I saw them lose to Northwestern this year. Collins will pick up some fouls crashing the boards. I'll be interested in seeing how aggressive Dean-o will be driving the ball, he normally doesn't have a player as big as Collins on him.
-
Brown needs to have game face on defensively. Crawford has been ave 18.5 the past 12 games. 73-85 on FTs in those games.
-
More advanced stats. Breakdown of each team vs kenpom top 50, top 100, and top 100 road/neutral.
The Cats have performed better vs every group, though our slower pace/decent defense/poor offense vs their faster pace/decent offense/poor defense creates a very interesting match up.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C6y_Kj4V4AAE7Ig.png:large)
-
slower pace ? we're hyper aggressive.
-
I'll be interested in seeing how aggressive Dean-o will be driving the ball, he normally doesn't have a player as big as Collins on him.
I'm gonna go hyper-insightful and say "not very"
-
Dean aggressive? Never seen it.
-
you guys remember the last time we played a Crawford in the NC twoA's??
We're looking at a triple OT and our guys being too tired for Fridays contest
-
If we play fast paced, we're playing thier game, going to lose.
When we are actively trying to slow down the pace, our Off. Ef falls of the chart, we lose.
Outlook not good at this time. Does oscar get the boot for 5 years w/out NCAA win?
-
If we play fast paced, we're playing thier game, going to lose.
I disagree
-
Some more players stats and probably a more accurate assessment of what guys can do. Only stats from kenpom Tier A games (Top 50, adjusted to home/road).
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2FgoEMAW.com%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F03%2FWake-Forest-2.png&hash=56380287076de31da147cd6b61181a87ad73b7a0)
-
Wake Forest playing well, although they did lose in the tourney to Virginia Tech. Recent performance similar to the 'Cats, right down to a recent win over a top 10 team (beat Lousville March 1)
-
when we lose to these guys..and oscar keeps his job.... #burnitdown
-
bookcat get out of here
-
what are we guessing wake forests 3pt% is going to be against the cats?
I'm gonna guess 45%
-
what are we guessing wake forests 3pt% is going to be against the cats?
I'm gonna guess 45%
<40%. I'm rolling the dice here.
-
Wake went 3-7 vs ACC tourney teams. All top 50 RPI games. 5 games vs Elite seeds (2x vs Duke, 1x UNC, Lville, FSU). 5 games (2x vs VT, 1x vs Virginia, ND, Mia). Most of the games were competitive. They won by 17, lost by 16,17....But the other 7 games were single digit margins.
Looking at the box scores, Wake's defense really struggled in these games. Now there are some good offenses in that group. They allowed 58.5% eFG and about 1.25 PPP in those 10 games.
At the same time, their offense was pretty good. Putting up about 1.20 PPP themselves. Not sure what to detect from all that. Our Defense will be challenged
They played 4 other games vs Top 100 ACC Opponents. Beat Pitt by 4 at home. Then lost to Clemson 2x and at the Cuse.
-
they score a lot, we don't score a lot and our defense sucks assnuts, we lose by triple digits to the deacons
-
Advantage Cats if this thing comes down to a half court trick shot.
https://twitter.com/StlVUFan/status/841426732666228737
-
Posted from another board from a UNC fan.
Check out point #5. We are doomed
UNC fan here; I can't ever remember being this excited about a play-in game. There are so many great storylines in this game, and I genuinely think the winner has a chance to continue in the tournament after this game. Personally, I am rooting for the winner of this game to make a run to the Elite Eight.
In case you are interested, I will add a few details about Wake Forest (which is not far down the road from where I live, so I know a bit about their program):
First, in a conference with a whopping 15 teams and with many good squads full of NBA talent, John Collins was the best player. He finished second in voting and didn't win ACC POY (my man, Justin Jackson did), but that was only because Wake finished 10th in the conference. However, Collins is a one man wrecking crew. Key: get him in foul trouble.
Wake is an extremely good offensive team; we are talking a top 10 offense per Kenpom. Collins is an exceptional passer if you double him down low, and they have several good three point shooters (including a stretch four) to make you pay after the pass. As far as getting the ball to Collins, they have guards who are good at entry passes into the post if you front him, and he has suction cups on his hands to snatch the ball. You also can't double him until he has the ball because - as mentioned earlier - they have several good shooters who can light it up from deep (they shoot about 39% from three as a team). In addition, they can be a dynamic team on the fast break with several capable finishers among the guards if you don't get back on D.
While they have a strong offense, Wake is not as balanced on offense and defense as K State. In fact, they are downright terrible on D. They played better the last few weeks which helped them sneak into the NCAA tournament, but one of the reasons they often have high scoring games is they let the other team score so easily! What you want to do is beat their guards and get Collins in foul trouble; he tries to block shots and cover for his defense when the guards get beat, and he is prone to taking himself out of the game as a result.
They are very young in key spots, and they don't have NCAA experience. This could be a big boost for K State who has enjoyed a pretty healthy share of seasons reaching the NCAA tournament under oscar Weber.
One quirky data point for this game; Wake Forest is extremely good at coming back when they fall behind. They were behind by double digits in all three of their final games before VT, and they came back and won them (including down 19 to two seed Louisville), so hopefully you guys have a team that is good at maintaining leads, because Wake Forest is not a team that dies easily.
Prediction: I think it is a toss up on paper, and quite frankly I don't know enough about Kansas State to know how they match up. Both teams are better than their record and underseeded per Kenpom, so I think it will be a good game either way. Best wishes to the winner for a long tourney run!
-
Wake let VTech come back in that game and ended up losing by 9. All of that is irrelevant.
-
I don't see us jumping out to any kind of a substantial lead, so joke's on them.
-
Wake Favorited by 1 on Brovada. Easy $. Take the cats!
-
betting on oscar to win a play-in game is not easy nor smart
-
guys I don't want to talk about wake forest anymore.. what else do you want to talk about?
I just realized that I have tickets at McCain to see the shaolin warriors and am going to miss all of the first half probs.. So lets talk about something else
-
guys I don't want to talk about wake forest anymore.. what else do you want to talk about?
I just realized that I have tickets at McCain to see the shaolin warriors and am going to miss all of the first half probs.. So lets talk about something else
Start your own thread.
-
betting on oscar to win a play-in game is not easy nor smart
He's actually won me some $ this year. Started out with $30 in my account and i'm up to $200. I understand your concern however. Making a small $10 bet here.
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0klNDWnO-Ks
its like mortal kombat over here fan
-
The line just moved big time in K-State's direction. Anyone have any clue why?
-
Dan Bilzerian just put a lot of scrilla on the Cats.
-
Keys:
1) Cats need to win the TO battle. Wake isn't a dominant rebounding team, but with their bigs they probably win that. We aren't likely to outshoot them (if we do we win big), but we can win TO%, hopefully by 3-5%. Wake doesn't turn people over at all and while they don't turn it over much, most defenses in the AAC aren't forcing TOs at a high rate.
2) Claws. This is a game where Wade could score it because he's not going to be guarded like he was vs Baylor or WVU. Wake is a finesse defensive team at best and I think Wade thrives in those games. I expect at least 15 tonight from him and if we don't get that we're likely in trouble.
3) eFG%% differential. Wake has hit 40% or better their last 4 games. Barry and Kam have been extremely inconsistent in Big 12 play, so a lot could ride on one or the other hitting shots (see Baylor). 2PT% will likely be about even. I still worry about our 3PT defense being a detriment as it has all year, but if we can contain them and hit perimeter shots ourselves we will win.
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0klNDWnO-Ks
its like mortal kombat over here fan
Scam.
-
In Wake 9 road and 2 neutral ACC games...
They allowed 56.0% on 2pt, 40.0% on 3pt, 57.7 on eFG
The only game that a team did not hit 55.0 on eFG was BC in the ACC tourney.
40% of the shots teams took were from 3, and Wake allowed 9.6 3PT makes per game
LeDay, a PF from VTech had 55 pts on 17-25 FG in those 2 late March games. We need to get DJamer/Dean going early and often.
They are going to score on us. We must be able to get good shots ourselves. And I agree that the TO differ could be 1 factor we need to win.
-
Keys:
1) Cats need to win the TO battle. Wake isn't a dominant rebounding team, but with their bigs they probably win that. We aren't likely to outshoot them (if we do we win big), but we can win TO%, hopefully by 3-5%. Wake doesn't turn people over at all and while they don't turn it over much, most defenses in the AAC aren't forcing TOs at a high rate.
2) Claws. This is a game where Wade could score it because he's not going to be guarded like he was vs Baylor or WVU. Wake is a finesse defensive team at best and I think Wade thrives in those games. I expect at least 15 tonight from him and if we don't get that we're likely in trouble.
3) eFG%% differential. Wake has hit 40% or better their last 4 games. Barry and Kam have been extremely inconsistent in Big 12 play, so a lot could ride on one or the other hitting shots (see Baylor). 2PT% will likely be about even. I still worry about our 3PT defense being a detriment as it has all year, but if we can contain them and hit perimeter shots ourselves we will win.
Seems like you and MiR both put a lot of this game's weight on Wade. Any other match up you see giving us trouble or that could be a bright spot for us? You said they were finesse defensive team with low turn over %. Do you think this will be a time for our guards to shine in an unexpected way? Do we have any comparison to a team we've already played?
-
Keys:
1) Cats need to win the TO battle. Wake isn't a dominant rebounding team, but with their bigs they probably win that. We aren't likely to outshoot them (if we do we win big), but we can win TO%, hopefully by 3-5%. Wake doesn't turn people over at all and while they don't turn it over much, most defenses in the AAC aren't forcing TOs at a high rate.
2) Claws. This is a game where Wade could score it because he's not going to be guarded like he was vs Baylor or WVU. Wake is a finesse defensive team at best and I think Wade thrives in those games. I expect at least 15 tonight from him and if we don't get that we're likely in trouble.
3) eFG%% differential. Wake has hit 40% or better their last 4 games. Barry and Kam have been extremely inconsistent in Big 12 play, so a lot could ride on one or the other hitting shots (see Baylor). 2PT% will likely be about even. I still worry about our 3PT defense being a detriment as it has all year, but if we can contain them and hit perimeter shots ourselves we will win.
Seems like you and MiR both put a lot of this game's weight on Wade. Any other match up you see giving us trouble or that could be a bright spot for us? You said they were finesse defensive team with low turn over %. Do you think this will be a time for our guards to shine in an unexpected way? Do we have any comparison to a team we've already played?
Similar in style to a OSU/ISU/KU, but not as much talent. I think Crawford is a good guard, but he's not Evans/Morris/Mason. Collins is very good, maybe comparable to Motley from Baylor. I don't think they have a lot after that (Woods looks decent), so not the dynamic range of scorers like OSU has in Evans/Carroll/Forte or ISU with their many scorers and clearly not KU talent.
I said Wade because I think its a good match up for him. Wake doesn't look like an overly physical team which is what gives him the most trouble.
I'm hopeful that Brown or Stokes can play really well and hit shots, I think one or the other has a good shot too. Frankly, Stokes is due, TCU is his only good game since mid-February.
Westicles is an interesting match up for them. Hopefully he can inside their defense and create a bit.
Hopefully we can get DJamer involved. Collins will be an interesting defensive match-up for him, but he played well in the 3 games against Baylor who is a much better shot blocking team.
Then we have the wildcards who have played well in Maurice and Ervin lately and maybe this is a game where Sneed breaks out of his funk and hits 3 treys or something.
-
I can't count on much from Stokes outside of a few hilarious TO's. I can't picture is scoring enough to win.
-
The line just moved big time in K-State's direction. Anyone have any clue why?
Moved big in our direction the day we played Baylor too!!
-
Vegas insider on 810 right now. Says Wake's defense is hot garbage.
-
Vegas insider on 810 right now. Says Wake's defense is hot garbage.
Seems like your gE insider already told you this....
Great offense, bad defense, fast pace.
:eye:
-
:D :cheers:
-
This game is on too early. :frown:
-
Vegas insider on 810 right now. Says Wake's defense is hot garbage.
Seems like your gE insider already told you this....
Great offense, bad defense, fast pace.
:eye:
This is why I pay premium for this site.
-
Kansas State (PK) over Wake Forest: Kansas State is a team that I didn't think deserved a spot in the NCAA Tournament due to a very mediocre non-conference strength of schedule, conference W-L record, and RPI Top 50/100 records. That said, they are better than their resume, suffering from a little bit of bad luck in close games. Also, the Big 12 was just ridiculously strong, with no opportunities for easy victories. Both of these teams have mismatches, from Kansas State's pressure defense to Wake Forest's John Collins inside, but when all else fails I give the coaching advantage to oscar Weber. Criticize Weber's recruiting all you want, but he's one of the best game coaches that you'll find in Division I basketball.
http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2017/03/day-1-picking-lines.html
-
"Jeff" really needs to up his troll game
-
Also, people seem to be talking about how our defense has picked up lately and that's why we won 3 of our last 4.
Well, that's not really true.
We gave up 1.14 points per possession when we beat TCU.
We gave up 1.09 ppp when we beat Baylor.
We did play great defense against Tech (.75 ppp), but Tech wasn't very good either. Also, we played great defense against WVU (.86 ppp) but we lost.
Even going back to our other win lately, we gave up 1.07 ppp to a pretty bad Texas offense.
The key to winning those games was making shots. 53% from 3 at Texas. 43% from 3 at TCU. 43% from 3 against Baylor.
We need to play decent defense against Wake tonight, hopefully allowing no more than 1.08 ppp or so; but if we don't make shots and shoot 40% from 3 and over 55% eFG% it won't matter.
-
Wake Favorited by 1 on Brovada. Easy $. Take the cats!
Bovada seems to be having some technical difficulties. Are you able to login?
Asking for a friend....
-
Yes sir. My friend did it first thing this morning.
-
Yes sir. My friend did it first thing this morning.
:thumbs:
Maybe their servers are struggling to keep up with so many people betting on the Cats. I'll tell my friend to try again later.
-
If we can hold Wake to 1.08 PPP or under, I really like our chances (maybe even 1.10, with Wake D being as bad as I think it is)
Last 6 Conference games on road & 2 games in KC.. our team did allow 1.03 PPP (541 pts 527 Poss)
-
Ok, guys, what is a good PPP #? I don't follow that crap and don't understand it all that well...
Is under 1.0 good, average, or bad?
-
Ok, guys, what is a good PPP #? I don't follow that crap and don't understand it all that well...
Is under 1.0 good, average, or bad?
points per possession
-
Ok, guys, what is a good PPP #? I don't follow that crap and don't understand it all that well...
Is under 1.0 good, average, or bad?
NCAA average is 1.05 ppp, maybe some of this makes more sense knowing that.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C62M7EAU0AAkxaW.png:large)
-
Maybe I'm reading it wrong but Wakes record looks awful against decent teams.
-
Like why were analysts saying we shouldn't have made it in, but WF did. ACC bias?
-
Like why were analysts saying we shouldn't have made it in, but WF did. ACC bias?
Many were saying they (Wake) didn't deserve to be in either.
-
guys remember how much fun it is to go deep into the tourney??.. I'd really like to have that happen again
-
No one in a play in game deserves to be in
-
Like why were analysts saying we shouldn't have made it in, but WF did. ACC bias?
Many were saying they (Wake) didn't deserve to be in either.
Maybe I'm watching the wrong coverage. I've binging on this espn jazz
-
Maybe I'm reading it wrong but Wakes record looks awful against decent teams.
2-11 vs KenPom top 50 (3-10 vs RPI top 50) isn't anything to brag about, no doubt. They went 10-10 vs ACC teams. 6 of those wins came against 13th,14th,15th place teams. Also beat 11 seed once.
They were also 1-10 away from home vs Top 100 RPI in the Power 6 BB conferences. So it's easy to see why they barely got in like us
-
"Jeff" really needs to up his troll game
(https://m.popkey.co/1edcf5/JmDbE.gif)
-
Good luck tonight guys. Might be the kiss of death but I'm rooting for you.
-
No one in a play in game deserves to be in
Since they have make it be 68 teams in '11, at least 1 of those 2 play in game teams at the 11/12/13/14 seed play in games has gone to the round of 32 all 6 years, 3 have gone to S16, and of course VCU went to the final 4 in '11, the first year they did it. So, as much as it's janky as crap, the play in games have brought in teams that have had success in the tourny. They may not "deserve" it, but their success has proven otherwise.
-
Are we gonna win? I haven't watched a game in weeks. My guess is probably not.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Maybe I'm reading it wrong but Wakes record looks awful against decent teams.
2-11 vs KenPom top 50 (3-10 vs RPI top 50) isn't anything to brag about, no doubt. They went 10-10 vs ACC teams. 6 of those wins came against 13th,14th,15th place teams. Also beat 11 seed once.
They were also 1-10 away from home vs Top 100 RPI in the Power 6 BB conferences. So it's easy to see why they barely got in like us
That's why I don't understand how we were the last one in.
-
Wake Favorited by 1 on Brovada. Easy $. Take the cats!
Bovada seems to be having some technical difficulties. Are you able to login?
Asking for a friend....
Wait, did fanning say "favorited"?
-
Yes. Rolling in my $10 bill this morning and my illiterate self :gocho:
-
Good place for this:
Nike supplied K-State players with new pre-game shirts on Tuesday. They read “K-State Mentality.” Wake Forest, another Nike school, wore similar shirts that read “Wake Forest Mentality.”
One noticeable addition to the new shirts: they all featured the popular fan slogan “EMAW” on the sleeves, which K-State had gone away from in recent years under former athletic director John Currie.
Heh John, Phil has a message for you, "Suck it"
-
Laird's first move is a good one.