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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Basketball is hard => Topic started by: kso_FAN on January 15, 2013, 08:22:57 AM
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VERY limited sample size of only 2 to 4 games, but here are the overall conference only efficiency numbers and 4 factors for Big 12 games only. Sorted in each category by the difference between offense and defense for each team.
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If we can shore up our turnover percentage, then I think we've got a real shot to finish second in the league. I've give up on FTR with oscar...just not gonna happen.
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If we can shore up our turnover percentage, then I think we've got a real shot to finish second in the league. I've give up on FTR with oscar...just not gonna happen.
It will be interesting to see how FTR differential plays out this year.
Here are last year's final numbers for league games:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2FgoEMAW.com%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F03%2FBig12Effand4Factors3-5-12.png&hash=c5854e0e020c8c5230716b425bf172813c4a4e44)
This team (with mostly the same group of players) was decent at getting to the foul line, but because we fouled so much and sent other teams to the FT line, our FTR was a net loss on the season in league play.
So far overall this year's team for the entire season has a slight advantage (Off FTR = 35%, Def FTR = 33.6%), but not in our 2 Big 12 games.
Its weird to not see Missouri and aTm on there.
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If we can shore up our turnover percentage, then I think we've got a real shot to finish second in the league. I've give up on FTR with oscar...just not gonna happen.
It will be interesting to see how FTR differential plays out this year.
Here are last year's final numbers for league games:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2FgoEMAW.com%2Fblog%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2012%2F03%2FBig12Effand4Factors3-5-12.png&hash=c5854e0e020c8c5230716b425bf172813c4a4e44)
This team (with mostly the same group of players) was decent at getting to the foul line, but because we fouled so much and sent other teams to the FT line, our FTR was a net loss on the season in league play.
So far overall this year's team for the entire season has a slight advantage (Off FTR = 35%, Def FTR = 33.6%), but not in our 2 Big 12 games.
Its weird to not see Missouri and aTm on there.
Jamar fouled out of like, every game.
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Jamar fouled out of like, every game.
And last year was actually improved to only give up a Def FTR of 43.4%. The previous 3 years Frank's teams gave up 48.0%, 49.7%, and 51.8% in the Big 12. Only 2009-10 when we had a Off FTR of 51.1% did we finish with a net advantage for the Big 12 season.
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I love these. And it makes sense that the motion O is the death of FTR.
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The KU game last night was the worst offensive efficiency and shooting game ever for a Scott Drew team. That includes his first few years building there.
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The KU game last night was the worst offensive efficiency and shooting game ever for a Scott Drew team. That includes his first few years building there.
Amazing that leaving your bigs on the low block while your midget guards try to drive into the congested lane against KU didn't produce more positive results...
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Its only 2 games but our eFG% and our Def OR% are solid. Be great if we could keep our eFG% above 50 for the entire conf season
These first 2 league games only allowing 23.3 OR% and add in the Fla game (allowed 28.4)...... its nice to see us hitting the def boards here of late
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Be great if we could keep our eFG% above 50 for the entire conf season
It would be significant, Beasley's year is the only one we've shot 50% or better (league games only) in the last 10 years (and probably ever in the Big 12).
And maintaining that defensive rebounding would be more significant; K-State has never been under 30% in OR% allowed (consistently 31-33%, even going back to Wooly).
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Well counting the Fla game and 3 Big12 games (not counting 2 games at home (UMKC/SD St) where we were not full strength)...
1.09 ppp
53.3 eFG%
99-213 fg (46.5%)
29-72 3pt (40.3%)
16.9 TO%
+6.0 Reb margain
46.0 Def eFG% (only allowed 15 3s while we have made 29)
27.5 OR% allowed
I like the looks of these numbers...... Keep it going vs OU this Saturday
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Shooting is working itself out as this team (expecially Rod) figures out the motion offense. 6 of the last 7 games we've shot 49% or better. At this point it almost looks like Rod was built for this offense, Doherty made a lot of dumb comments, but I did think his comparison to Alford in Knight's motion offense back in the day was pretty fair. Rod just looks really comfortable now and the other guys can play off of him.
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4 gms--
54.4 eFG%
1.10 ppp
40.6% 3pt
16.8 to%
1.55 asst/To ratio
:dance:
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Best shooting team in the Big 12. Feels weird.
#bruceketball
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like, are the posessions, OR% and FT rate indicators of problem(s) that are masked by our eFG?
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being low in OR% and FT rate are both stranger to me than the shooting thing
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like, are the posessions, OR% and FT rate indicators of problem(s) that are masked by our eFG?
I'd say TO% probably helps mask it, too.
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like, are the posessions, OR% and FT rate indicators of problem(s) that are masked by our eFG?
possessions doesn't matter. i'm not real concerned about oboarding or ft rate with this team, they should improve, just as efg will likely get worse. maintaining a very good to rate is probably the most crucial to continued success. but it's not like kstate is playing inspired bball. an efficiency difference of about 0.1, having already played two of the four clearly inferior teams is nothing to brag about.
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like, are the posessions, OR% and FT rate indicators of problem(s) that are masked by our eFG?
possessions doesn't matter. i'm not real concerned about oboarding or ft rate with this team, they should improve, just as efg will likely get worse. maintaining a very good to rate is probably the most crucial to continued success. but it's not like kstate is playing inspired bball. an efficiency difference of about 0.1, having already played two of the four clearly inferior teams is nothing to brag about.
Meh, West Virginia is good enough to play a lot of teams close unless Bob loses them. Look at their Eff Dif, its not like anyone (in the Big 12) is blowing them out.
The 4 factors are listed in the order that they matter for winning and losing. If we can maintain a good Off eFG% (above 50%) its better than anything else we could do. And if we maintain a good eFG% AND TO% on offense, then OR% and FTR matter even less. We just aren't used to doing either very well on offense, though Frank's defense always evened it up, especially with TO%.
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Question: We led the Big 12 in rebounding margin going into the game and OU dominated us getting boards yesterday. Did they do something different to give them an advantage or did we just have an off day? Or have we just played teams that suck at rebounding?
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Question: We led the Big 12 in rebounding margin going into the game and OU dominated us getting boards yesterday. Did they do something different to give them an advantage or did we just have an off day? Or have we just played teams that suck at rebounding?
Its early, so its a big skewed, but we have played the 3 best Big 12 teams in terms of rebounding differential. Of course, all 3 of those teams played us too.
I did think OU made it a point not to let us get on the offensive glass, though we were better in the 2nd half.
You have to keep in mind that when you shoot well, your opportunities to get offensive boards go down as well.
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Question: We led the Big 12 in rebounding margin going into the game and OU dominated us getting boards yesterday. Did they do something different to give them an advantage or did we just have an off day? Or have we just played teams that suck at rebounding?
Its early, so its a big skewed, but we have played the 3 best Big 12 teams in terms of rebounding differential. Of course, all 3 of those teams played us too.
I did think OU made it a point not to let us get on the offensive glass, though we were better in the 2nd half.
You have to keep in mind that when you shoot well, your opportunities to get offensive boards go down as well.
yeah, this is kind of the point I was trying to make. we've got a good eFG, but when that goes to hell (I don't see us being at that level as we work through our road games), will the other come up to offset? or will they remain the same?
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Question: We led the Big 12 in rebounding margin going into the game and OU dominated us getting boards yesterday. Did they do something different to give them an advantage or did we just have an off day? Or have we just played teams that suck at rebounding?
Its early, so its a big skewed, but we have played the 3 best Big 12 teams in terms of rebounding differential. Of course, all 3 of those teams played us too.
I did think OU made it a point not to let us get on the offensive glass, though we were better in the 2nd half.
You have to keep in mind that when you shoot well, your opportunities to get offensive boards go down as well.
yeah, this is kind of the point I was trying to make. we've got a good eFG, but when that goes to hell (I don't see us being at that level as we work through our road games), will the other come up to offset? or will they remain the same?
Great question, we'll have to see. I do think that oboarding must get better in Big 12 play for us to be a 12 or more win team. I'm not sure we'll match the 40+% we were regularly under Frank, but I think we need to get back up to 35-38% on OR%.
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Counting the 6 BCS schools and the Mt West..... In conf games, we are 2nd in Asst/TO margain (1.55)
And we are 5th in eFG%
Also great to see we are =
2nd in Big 12 play in TO%
1st in Big 12 play in Def TO%
1st in Big 12 play with 40.5% from 3pt (2nd with 32 made 3s)
And best in Big 12 play only allowing 13 made 3s.... which figures into only 15.9% of our opp pts coming from 3pt shots (or 3pt distribution)
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Meh, West Virginia is good enough to play a lot of teams close unless Bob loses them. Look at their Eff Dif, its not like anyone (in the Big 12) is blowing them out.
i'm looking at the adv stats, _fan (the ones in this thread). wvu's efficiency diffs included.
those stats indicate fairly clearly (although the small sample size makes conclusions iffy), that the big 12 has six good to decent teams, all of which are fairly even, and four teams that are significantly worse. if your point is just that wvu is closer to the decent teams than it is to tcu, fine. point taken. but if your point is that kstate's 4-0 record is more predictive of their quality of play than their 0.10 efficiency diff because wvu is better than tcu, then sorry, point refused.
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Meh, West Virginia is good enough to play a lot of teams close unless Bob loses them. Look at their Eff Dif, its not like anyone (in the Big 12) is blowing them out.
i'm looking at the adv stats, _fan (the ones in this thread). wvu's efficiency diffs included.
those stats indicate fairly clearly (although the small sample size makes conclusions iffy), that the big 12 has six good to decent teams, all of which are fairly even, and four teams that are significantly worse. if your point is just that wvu is closer to the decent teams than it is to tcu, fine. point taken. but if your point is that kstate's 4-0 record is more predictive of their quality of play than their 0.10 efficiency diff because wvu is better than tcu, then sorry, point refused.
Yeah, there is a clear separation and WVU is definitely in the bottom 4, but they and UT are closer to the top 6 than TCU/Tech which are just awful teams. I meant nothing predictive though.
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Great stuff _Fan. As an OSU fan I find it hard to believe that our opposition's OR% is that low. Of course we have played to of the worst teams in the league.
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Mid-week update.
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ISU is terrible
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ISU is terrible
I wouldn't go so far as to say terrible, but if we want to separate and make a run for the Top 2, then we should win at Ames. I like our style against them since we still like to ugly-up the game. Tech made it really ugly and won with a .84 PPP. That said, ISU has been really good in Ames lately.
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ISU is terrible
I wouldn't go so far as to say terrible, but if we want to separate and make a run for the Top 2, then we should win at Ames. I like our style against them since we still like to ugly-up the game. Tech made it really ugly and won with a .84 PPP. That said, ISU has been really good in Ames lately.
i'm just continuing my anti-ISU theme from earlier in the season. they aren't terrible, they just aren't a good enough team to overcome those nights when the 3pt shot isn't falling for them. some teams, like k-state, can get past bad shooting. look at their 3pt percentages in their loses- it's bad, in the ~mid 20% range. i have begun to wonder about how good of a coach that hoiberg is/is going to be. they can't expect to be anything more than middle of the pack playing how they're currently coached to play. this could just be a sign of him needing more time from a recruiting perspective to build his team though and he's playing this style because he has to..
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ISU is terrible
I wouldn't go so far as to say terrible, but if we want to separate and make a run for the Top 2, then we should win at Ames. I like our style against them since we still like to ugly-up the game. Tech made it really ugly and won with a .84 PPP. That said, ISU has been really good in Ames lately.
i'm just continuing my anti-ISU theme from earlier in the season. they aren't terrible, they just aren't a good enough team to overcome those nights when the 3pt shot isn't falling for them. some teams, like k-state, can get past bad shooting. look at their 3pt percentages in their loses- it's bad, in the ~mid 20% range. i have begun to wonder about how good of a coach that hoiberg is/is going to be. they can't expect to be anything more than middle of the pack playing how they're currently coached to play. this could just be a sign of him needing more time from a recruiting perspective to build his team though and he's playing this style because he has to..
I agree with all of that. Plus he's had extremely good fortune with transfers, that strategy can go south if you rely on it too much. (Too be fair, Frank built a Elite 8 team largely because he got 2 really good transfers, but then Freddy...)
The biggest surprise for me in looking at the numbers is Baylor's defense. I know its only 5 games (over 1/4 of the season), but that's significant.
The match-up with ISU is very interesting; 2 of the best eFG% teams and TO% teams, but 2 of the worst rebounding and FT rate teams. Different styles, but similar profiles.
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i was surprised looking at ISU/KSU's similarities too. i think we win at saturday if we push possessions (something I'm not sure oscar likes to do) because we should be able to out-rebound them. they shoot and run the other way.
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Baylor's Def is a little surprising. In the non con they allowed 47.8 eFG, so being under 40 in conf play raises some eyebrows.
In league play, we have only allowed 53 3pt att (10.6/gm), easily best in the B12. And opp. are making 32.1%
Obviously, Isu wants to shoot the 3s, so this could be a big factor in determining the outcome this Saturday.
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Offensive rebounding percentage :frown:
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It is a little troublesome about the OR numbers. The only Big12 game where we had 33.3% or above was KU.
It may be tough for us to acheive the 40% clip with us going with the smaller lineup, but we need to get to 35% for sure
Not putting the blame solely on him but Gip was ave 3.5 OR per game in non-con and now has only 6 OR in 5 Big 12 games
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ouch.
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Ok, been a lot of negative talk with the recent 2 L's, so here is some positives---
We have shot 50% or better in 5 of 6 games
We have scored a 1.05 ppp or better in 5 of 6 gms
We have allowed 1.05 ppp or less in 5 of 6 gms
Our TO% has been under 19.0 in 5 of 6 gms
We have forced our opp into 20% or higher on TO in 4 of 6 gms
Our AS% has been 60 or better in 5 of 6 gms
Shot 50% or better on 2pt in 4 of 6 gms
Shot 33.3 or better on 3pt shots in 5 of 6 gms (and no gms below 30%)
Held our opp to 4 or less 3pt makes in 5 of the 6 gms
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jfc
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Something a little different; Big 12 sorted by the opponents' records in Big 12 games through 1/3 of the Big 12 season. Sort of a Big 12 SOS.
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Nice thing for us so far is Osu has had 3 chances to get decent road win and failed, and Isu has a bad road loss.
Baylor 5 wins.....those teams have combined for 6 wins.
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what are we ranked in total Offensive Rebounds in the Big 12 now?
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what are we ranked in total Offensive Rebounds in the Big 12 now?
We are last in offensive rebound percentage, which is the stat that really matters.
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:frown:
Farewell JYC
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Midweek update!
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Midweek update!
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Looking at TCU's and KSU's FTR, it leads you to believe FTR is not as important as we think it is. But they are probably just outliers.
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Looking at TCU's and KSU's FTR, it leads you to believe FTR is not as important as we think it is. But they are probably just outliers.
If shooting is up and TOs are down it takes on less of an impact. Again, the 4 factors are listed in importance to winning and losing.
The value of JYC stats was the trio of forced TOs, Oboarding, and getting to the FT line because we didn't shoot as well.
And I agree that there is a bit of an outlier quality to the stats so far; 7 games is a decent sample size, but its still going to be off some because of the variations of who teams have played so far.
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As far as stats go, that was by far our best Big 12 game so far, right? I mean crap, we even shot FT's well.
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As far as stats go, that was by far our best Big 12 game so far, right? I mean crap, we even shot FT's well.
Yes, it was our best game for both offensive and defensive efficiency. A .40 differential between offensive and defensive efficiency is a destruction.
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As far as stats go, that was by far our best Big 12 game so far, right? I mean crap, we even shot FT's well.
Yes, it was our best game for both offensive and defensive efficiency. A .40 differential between offensive and defensive efficiency is a destruction.
:D
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In conf games, Kstate is 3rd in nation out of 345 teams in A/To ratio. And we are 16th in TO%.
U the man Angel
Also, anyone see the Clones shot 66% last night in their loss. They were twice as bad on TO. Their 25.0% to Osu's 11.8%
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I generally wouldn't care about our FTR being so low, but the fact that it's nearly a 20 point difference on our opponents FTR makes me sad.
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Your Sunday morning update:
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The turnover differential is astounding. Is this a defensive system thing or do we just have fast hands and good instincts
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I think it's crazier that we're 2nd in offensive efg%. And 3rd is KU, who isn't exactly nipping at our heals.
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The turnover differential is astounding. Is this a defensive system thing or do we just have fast hands and good instincts
I think its the system. Outside the game in Ames, we have made it really difficult for opponents to run their offense. Simply my impression, but the main difference between oscar's defensive philosophy and Frank's is that oscar's is a bit more balanced between on ball defense and off ball defense.
Frank's defense was so predicated on ball pressure, denial on the wings, and help in the paint. I made a post about Frank's defense (http://goEMAW.com/blog/?p=1786) about a year ago, and pointed out how K-State forced a lot of turnovers, but generally didn't have a really high steal percentage. The defense took people out of offense and often teams just threw the ball out of bounds.
I think oscar's is similar, but there is a bit less denial on the wings, so defenders are a bit more likely to end up in passing lanes for steals, thus a slightly higher steal percentage. But overall, the combination of ball pressure and help still forces teams into turnovers at a high rate. And we continue to force teams into what often look like dumb mistakes and players just throw the ball out of bounds. The biggest difference is that even though we still value ball pressure, we take fewer chances, thus we don't end up with as many backdoor cuts or guards getting past ball pressure and to the rim, so our block percentage is down as well.
The differences are slight, but the results are the same and opponents are averaging less than .9 points per possession.
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While the DE numbers in conference are the same, our conference rank has dropped, mostly because we are letting teams shoot a better percentage than we did a year ago. We seem to find a way to give up a fair amount of easy baskets most games.
But again, our shooting percentage is way up, and oscar deserves credit for that.
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While the DE numbers in conference are the same, our conference rank has dropped, mostly because we are letting teams shoot a better percentage than we did a year ago. We seem to find a way to give up a fair amount of easy baskets most games.
I think our conference rank is more from the schedule and it will even out. I'd guess there is a good chance or DEff will be better this year than last. Keep in mind in our 8 conference games we've already played 6 games against Big 12 offenses in the Top 6 in efficiency and only 2 against teams in the bottom 4.
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Maybe, but ISU, WVU and Texas (! good grief they're bad) all shot at or above their season eFG percentages against us. OU was 1-1 in this regard. The jury is still out on our defense.
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Two things to point out ---
1) in 8 Conf games, we have 55 steals and have only let our opp. get 30 steals . The 30 steals allowed is best in the Big 12 and in conf. games we rank 5th best out of 332 teams. Our 55 steals are 4th best in big 12. To compare what we have done in yrs past. Conf rank in ( )
Year ----- Ksu steals ------Opp steals ------
2013 55 (4) 30 (1)
2012 109 (6) 143 (10)
2011 90 (9) 113 (10)
2010 116(4) 118 (11)
2) 2nd thing--- Our A/TO ratio is 1.59 in B12 play. Our Big 12 opponents ratio is 0.80. Both league best. Very sweet having a ratio twice as good. We have kept the trend going as the last few years we were very good at having our opp. A/To ratio be poor. Last 3 years ranked 1st (.75), 2nd (.77),
2nd (.74)
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I appreciate that posters at goEMAW like advanced stats and have a good understanding of their impact on the game (and usefulness for analysis), but sometimes its helpful to see how they translate back to traditional stats and how they actually impact points scored or not scored during a game.
First we'll look at TO%. K-State has an impressive advantage of almost 6%, .159 compared to .217. The net impact of that when you factor in K-State's average of 62.7 possessions per game ends up giving K-State 3.6 "extra" possessions compared to their opponent. When factored into K-State's average of 1.06 points per possession, on paper that gives K-State an advantage of 3.8 points per game, but I think the impact actually becomes a bit larger because of other factors that I'll get to later.
Next is OR%. K-State has started to even out, but still is at a -2.4% margin, .290 to .314. However, the impact is much less because through Big 12 games K-State averages 56 shots and 31 misses. At a .290 OR%, that means K-State gains 9.0 offensive boards per game. Meanwhile opponents average only 49 shots (see TO%) and 27 misses; or 8.5 off boards per game. As a result of forcing TOs and getting more shot opportunities, K-State ends up with .5 more offensive boards per game than opponents.
When we look at FT rate, this is the only factor that nets K-State a negative impact. K-State's opponents are averaging a .434 FT rate in conference games; when multiplied by 49 shots, that nets 21.3 FT attempts, and at .629 FT%, opponents score 13.4 points per game at the FT line. Meanwhile, K-State's .240 FT rate when multiplied by 56 shots gives K-State 13.4 attempts at .673 FT% for 9 points per game for a significant difference of 4.4 points per game.
However, now we go back to eFG% where K-State gains a huge advantage. That TO% and 3.6 more possessions gives K-State extra shot opportunities (and the FT rate disadvantage takes away opponent shot attempts), giving K-State the shot advantage of 56 attempts compared to 49 for opponents. Then when you factor in K-State's eFG% advantage of .515 to .481, the Cats end up with 28.8 "made shots" compared to only 23.6 "makes" for opponents. Of course, eFG% factors in 3PT makes as 1.5 2PT "makes", so you can just multiply the "made shots" by 2 to get the net advantage. As a result K-State scores 57.6 points off of "shooting" compared to only 47.1 for opponents and an impressive 10.5 points per game advantage. This more than overrides the disadvantage on from FT rate, and when you add total points per game scored from "shooting" (57.6 to 47.1) and FTs (9.0 to 13.4), you get K-State's net advantage in Big 12 play of 66.6 to 60.5.
Again, this illustrates why TO% and eFG% differentials are more important than OR% and FT rate. Of course you want to win all of them, and if K-State closes the gap in FT rate and continues to be near even in OR% while maintaining the eFG% and TO% numbers, 2nd should be vary attainable, and possibly 1st with the continued problems KU continues to show, especially in TO%.
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:thumbs:
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Holy crap, advanced stats manifesto
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when it comes to winning games, nothing has more impact than efg. but kstate's relatively high in-conference efg is an anomaly (not as much of an anomaly now as it was two games ago, but still higher than reality).
this team's outstanding strength is to%, just as martin's teams' was oboarding. it might be a little harder to craft an identity around to% compared to oboarding, but it's still a great thing to specialize in - it's basically how bo ryan has top 25 teams every year. if weber can consistently get teams to have a ridiculously good to%, then he's going to find it hard to get himself fired here. looking at his career record, he has enough teams with great to% numbers that it appears to be a consistent strength. but he also has a number of teams with very pedestrian numbers. those teams tended to not have very good win-loss%s.
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when it comes to winning games, nothing has more impact than efg. but kstate's relatively high in-conference efg is an anomaly (not as much of an anomaly now as it was two games ago, but still higher than reality).
this team's outstanding strength is to%, just as martin's teams' was oboarding. it might be a little harder to craft an identity around to% compared to oboarding, but it's still a great thing to specialize in - it's basically how bo ryan has top 25 teams every year. if weber can consistently get teams to have a ridiculously good to%, then he's going to find it hard to get himself fired here. looking at his career record, he has enough teams with great to% numbers that it appears to be a consistent strength. but he also has a number of teams with very pedestrian numbers. those teams tended to not have very good win-loss%s.
Good points. I'm not sold how much of an anomaly our shooting it is at this point though. We may not stay at 51.5%, but I'd say 50% is doable for Big 12 play. We still have over half our games left against defenses that are allowing 48% or better eFG% on defense.
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We may not stay at 51.5%, but I'd say 50% is doable for Big 12 play.
that's probably about right, at least as a goal. 50% would be in the area of the top third of all teams in efg. that's getting into the fat part of the distribution, so it's not outlandish. in contrast, 55%, for back during those heady days, is like top 5%, which this team clearly was not.
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it's basically how bo ryan has top 25 teams every year.
And because of pace, like Ryan's teams, we are going to get more credit than deserved for our defense. The ESPN power poll already brought up that K-State leads the league in "scoring defense" at 60.5 PPG. In reality our defense has been okay, allowing .964 PPP in league games which is a solid 4th, but not a lot better than the NCAA average of .998 PPP.
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First we'll look at TO%. K-State has an impressive advantage of almost 6%, .159 compared to .217. The net impact of that when you factor in K-State's average of 62.7 possessions per game ends up giving K-State 3.6 "extra" possessions compared to their opponent. When factored into K-State's average of 1.06 points per possession, on paper that gives K-State an advantage of 3.8 points per game, but I think the impact actually becomes a bit larger because of other factors that I'll get to later.
As I understand it, and perhaps it is a misunderstanding, we aren't really getting "extra" possessions. The turnovers are factored into PPP, so I think the math is a little different. So more turnovers will lower a teams PPP, but it isn't really "extra" possessions and a turnover is and empty possession, the same as a missed shot except without the change in eFG%.
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it's basically how bo ryan has top 25 teams every year.
And because of pace, like Ryan's teams, we are going to get more credit than deserved for our defense. The ESPN power poll already brought up that K-State leads the league in "scoring defense" at 60.5 PPG. In reality our defense has been okay, allowing .964 PPP in league games which is a solid 4th, but not a lot better than the NCAA average of .998 PPP.
:lol: It's 2013, and ESPN is spouting out PPG stats :lol:
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First we'll look at TO%. K-State has an impressive advantage of almost 6%, .159 compared to .217. The net impact of that when you factor in K-State's average of 62.7 possessions per game ends up giving K-State 3.6 "extra" possessions compared to their opponent. When factored into K-State's average of 1.06 points per possession, on paper that gives K-State an advantage of 3.8 points per game, but I think the impact actually becomes a bit larger because of other factors that I'll get to later.
As I understand it, and perhaps it is a misunderstanding, we aren't really getting "extra" possessions. The turnovers are factored into PPP, so I think the math is a little different. So more turnovers will lower a teams PPP, but it isn't really "extra" possessions and a turnover is and empty possession, the same as a missed shot except without the change in eFG%.
With a TO you lose the ability to shoot or go to the FT line on that possession. Yes, TOs are factored into PPP, but because of our TO% differential we have 3.6 more possessions than our opponent to either put up a shot or get fouled, which contributes to us having 7 more shot attempts per game than our opponents, especially when we don't have a higher OR%. Like I said, FT rate factors into getting more shots as well, because teams lose shot attempts on possessions and have FTs instead. I made the connection that the net possession differential equals out to 3.6 possessions per game, and I think on paper that works out, the problem is you can't completely make the connection what happens (FT attempts or shot attempts) on those "extra" possessions, but certainly it factors into the fact that we have more shot attempts which is a very good thing when we shoot as well as we do.
Its not a lot unlike what happened under Frank, but we used a combination of OR% and TO% differentials to achieve those extra shots. However, we relied much more on OR% because our TO% differential was at best 2-3% and a few seasons it was negative. Plus our eFG% was never more than 1% better than our opponents. Typically FT rate was pretty much a wash.
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First we'll look at TO%. K-State has an impressive advantage of almost 6%, .159 compared to .217. The net impact of that when you factor in K-State's average of 62.7 possessions per game ends up giving K-State 3.6 "extra" possessions compared to their opponent. When factored into K-State's average of 1.06 points per possession, on paper that gives K-State an advantage of 3.8 points per game, but I think the impact actually becomes a bit larger because of other factors that I'll get to later.
As I understand it, and perhaps it is a misunderstanding, we aren't really getting "extra" possessions. The turnovers are factored into PPP, so I think the math is a little different. So more turnovers will lower a teams PPP, but it isn't really "extra" possessions and a turnover is and empty possession, the same as a missed shot except without the change in eFG%.
With a TO you lose the ability to shoot or go to the FT line on that possession. Yes, TOs are factored into PPP, but because of our TO% differential we have 3.6 more possessions than our opponent to either put up a shot or get fouled, which contributes to us having 7 more shot attempts per game than our opponents, especially when we don't have a higher OR%. Like I said, FT rate factors into getting more shots as well, because teams lose shot attempts on possessions and have FTs instead. I made the connection that the net possession differential equals out to 3.6 possessions per game, and I think on paper that works out, the problem is you can't completely make the connection what happens (FT attempts or shot attempts) on those "extra" possessions, but certainly it factors into the fact that we have more shot attempts which is a very good thing when we shoot as well as we do.
Its not a lot unlike what happened under Frank, but we used a combination of OR% and TO% differentials to achieve those extra shots. However, we relied much more on OR% because our TO% differential was at best 2-3% and a few seasons it was negative. Plus our eFG% was never more than 1% better than our opponents. Typically FT rate was pretty much a wash.
Gotcha, I think I focused on the "extra possessions" phrase too much and sort of misunderstood what you were getting at since the "possessions" stat is basically always going to be the same for both teams +/- 1.
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Gotcha, I think I focused on the "extra possessions" phrase too much and sort of misunderstood what you were getting at since the "possessions" stat is basically always going to be the same for both teams +/- 1.
That was a good question and point of clarification, and yes the possession totals (+/- 1) still remain consistent for both teams. Probably saying the other teams "wastes" 3.6 possessions would be a better way of saying it.
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Yes, TOs and TO% are a big strength for this team. We had one game when we werent real good and that was WV where we had 14 TOs and it was he only game when our TO% was 20 or higher. The other 7 games, we are only ave 9.3 TOs
Another key or us has been 3pt shooting and 3pt defense. We lead the league in B12 games shooting 37.1% and are 2nd in made 3pt shots
On defense, the Isu game was bad (they are a good 3pt shooting team and our 2nd half D was awful that game). In 7 of the 8 other games, our 3pt defense has been very good...... allowing only 28.9% and only allowing 22 made 3s. That is only 3 made 3pt shots per game.
Good 3pt offense and defense obviously helps when it comes to eFG% difference
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when it comes to winning games, nothing has more impact than efg. but kstate's relatively high in-conference efg is an anomaly (not as much of an anomaly now as it was two games ago, but still higher than reality).
this team's outstanding strength is to%, just as martin's teams' was oboarding. it might be a little harder to craft an identity around to% compared to oboarding, but it's still a great thing to specialize in - it's basically how bo ryan has top 25 teams every year. if weber can consistently get teams to have a ridiculously good to%, then he's going to find it hard to get himself fired here. looking at his career record, he has enough teams with great to% numbers that it appears to be a consistent strength. but he also has a number of teams with very pedestrian numbers. those teams tended to not have very good win-loss%s.
Good points. I'm not sold how much of an anomaly our shooting it is at this point though. We may not stay at 51.5%, but I'd say 50% is doable for Big 12 play. We still have over half our games left against defenses that are allowing 48% or better eFG% on defense.
we shot around 46.7% in the OOC. seems like we're running at a rate higher than normal. 9 of the 13 OOC we shot under 50%, we've only shot under 50% twice in conference. though the other side of the coin is that defensively, we're running at a "worse" rate, so you'd have to expect that to be better.
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Def eFG% is gonna be worse in conf games compared to noncon games.
We are at 48.1 Def FG% right now in B12 games. Last 2 yrs we were at 48.4 each year
and FAN mentioned that our opp. are scoring 13.4 pts from FTs this year. Last 2 years, we gave up an ave of 16.6 pts from the FT line
So 3.2 less points from the FT line and basicly the same Def FG%
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Sure, that's what makes sense, but you'd also think that offensive eFG% would go down, and offensive to% would go up. But you'd be wrong, at least so far.
We are having a strange year, no matter how you look at it.
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Yes, TOs and TO% are a big strength for this team. We had one game when we werent real good and that was WV where we had 14 TOs and it was he only game when our TO% was 20 or higher. The other 7 games, we are only ave 9.3 TOs
We've had one Big 12 game with a negative TO% differential and that was at ISU. Granted, we also lost eFG%, OR%, and FT rate in that game. But for this team TO% is the most important stat out there.
I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.
kenpom had a nice blog post (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/3_point_defense_should_not_be_defined_by_opponents_3p) about this in December. The stats show teams have about as much control over opponents' 3PT% as they do opponents' FT%.
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Yeah that makes since. I agree 3pt% defense isn't real important unless u combine it with how many 3pt shots u allow the other team to take or make. Taking out the Isu game, we have only allowed 22 made 3s in 7 games. That's very good ( and if our 3pt Def in those 7 gms was 35% compared to 29%....it wouldnt meen a whole lot.)
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I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.
Truth. I feel like we had a long thread about this either last year or the year before.
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I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.
Truth. I feel like we had a long thread about this either last year or the year before.
Yeah. We did. I think it was just after KenPom posted that article
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So Efficiency and eFG% -- Wanted to do a comparison of Frank's teams compared to this team (since its halfway thru conf yr)
For offense, i am gonna use us scoring 1.05 ppp or better, and then us shooting 50% or better (Conf games only)
For defense, i am gonna use us allowing 1.00 ppp or under, and then us allowing under 50%
We had pretty good success when we accomplished these things. (under Frank)
*When we shot 50% or better, we were 31-5
* When we got 1.05 ppp or better, we were 38-7
* When we held our opp to under 50%, we were 32-8
* When we hold our opp to 1.00 ppp or under, we were 31-5
Year --------------Off 50% or better --- 1.05 ppp or better --- Def under 50% --- Def 1.00 ppp or under
2013 (9 gms) 7 7 5 6
2012 (18 gms) 9 8 9 9
2011 (16 gms) 7 8 11 8
2010 (16 gms) 7 10 8 7
2009 (16 gms) 3 7 7 6
2008 (16 gms) 10 12 5 6
Best season for shooting 50% was 2008 (10 of 16 games). 7 of 9 this year
Best season for ppp 1.05 or better was 2008 (12 of 16). 7 of 9 this year
Best season for Def under 50% was 2011 (11 of 16). 5 of 9 this year
Best season for Def ppp 1.00 or under was 10' (8/16) and 11' (9/18). 6 for 9 this year
Offense --- we knew this was our best production year, but defense the production has been pretty good as well.
Of the 4 times we failed to hold our opp to under 50% this season..... twice the opp was right at 50.0%
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I don't put a lot of stock into 3PT% defense because its hard to control. However, 3PTA/FGA is important, and we are first in this in Big 12 play, only allowing 25% of our opponents shot attempts to be 3s.
Truth. I feel like we had a long thread about this either last year or the year before.
Yeah. We did. I think it was just after KenPom posted that article
That was a new article, but last February kenpom did a series of really good articles on 3PT "defense". http://goEMAW.com/forum/index.php?topic=19200.0
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Full charts will be updated tomorrow, after tonight's games, but the separation in the league continues to be clear. Here is the current (including games from last night and Monday) differential between offensive and defensive efficiency for league games (or per possession scoring margin). OU has slipped down to join WVU in the middle while the Top 5 are pretty much deadlocked.
Team EFF Diff
Kansas State 0.11
Kansas 0.11
Baylor 0.11
Iowa State 0.09
Oklahoma State 0.09
West Virginia 0.01
Oklahoma 0.01
Texas -0.06
Texas Tech -0.22
TCU -0.26
Also, Gasaway had a post yesterday at ESPN.com about national championship contenders (his were Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Miami, Louisville, Duke, Gonzaga) for this year using per possession scoring margin as a main indicator.:
If history is any indication, there's a good chance the 2013 national champion will come from a group of only seven teams.
How can I be so certain? That's where the Eliminator comes in -- my recurring column where I assess the relative merits of the national title contenders. There are two key pieces of information that I'll be working from here at Eliminator HQ:
1. Over the past seven seasons, the average per-possession scoring margin of a major-conference team that reaches the Final Four has been +0.13 in league play.
2. Someone forgot to share that information with Connecticut in 2010-11, because the Huskies reached the Final Four and won the national championship after outscoring the Big East by just 0.01 points per possession.
He did add this concerning KU.
Pretenders
Kansas Jayhawks (+0.11)
Aren't the Jayhawks 19-2? Yes, and the Eliminator isn't proclaiming irrevocable doom on Bill Self's team -- there's still basketball left to be played -- but the fact that KU (+0.11) is screened out by our rule as of early February does flag a teachable point. On a per-possession basis, this has not been your garden-variety dominant Kansas team. In the past five seasons, the Jayhawks' offense has posted the following ranks in Big 12 play: 1, 2, 1, 1 and 2. (That really was a great offense Missouri had last season.) Defense? Looks pretty similar: 1, 1, 1, 2 and 1.
This season, however, Self's men rank No. 4 in the Big 12 on offense in conference play, and No. 2 on D. Again, the season is young, and the Jayhawks' numbers will certainly improve after a couple of upcoming games against hapless and stat-inflating TCU. But until now KU's record is better than its per-possession performance has been, a point that I assure you is not lost on Self and his staff.
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We've talked about the 3PTA% for the defense, but Luke Winn's power rankings (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/college-basketball/news/20130206/college-basketball-power-rankings/) (Winn is the BITB of national media who use ADV stats) this week had an interesting chart about Florida, and a team's offensive reliance on shooting 3s.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.cdn.turner.com%2Fsi%2F.element%2Fimg%2F4.0%2Fglobal%2Fswapper%2F201302%2F130206.05.gif&hash=2820eee3cf8f38887d0e6497a502c977611d70bd)
So far we are at 35.9% 3PTA% (and making 37.5%) in Big 12 games which I can live with. This goes back to my earlier post about beating KU (or good teams) and my 35-35-35 barometer. I don't mind an occasional game where we get near 40% on 3PTA%, but we're better off in the mid 30s, making them in the mid 30s, and rebounding our misses in the mid 30s. All while keeping our TOs in the mid teens while shooting near 50% (we're at 48.8% in Big 12 games) on 2s.
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Interesting. Off a quick glance it looks like the only 2 games the whole season we were 40% or higher on 3PA was the OU and KU at home.
10-24 (48% 3PA) vs OU. 9-30 (53%) vs KU. No doubt the KU game we fell in love with the 3 to much.
Not sure what the stats are , but if you are gonna shoot 40% 3PA, then u better be making 40% of those 3pt you shoot.
We won the game we made 40%. Lost the game we didnt
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You could make a good argument that shooting only .407 on 2s was worse for us than shooting .300 on 3s.
If 50% is your standard on 2s, then standard for on 3s is .333. The simple math shows making 1/3 of your 3s is the same (scoring-wise) as making 1/2 of your 2s.
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hopefully Powercat Posse was using efg when talking about 50%
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You could make a good argument that shooting only .407 on 2s was worse for us than shooting .300 on 3s.
If 50% is your standard on 2s, then standard for on 3s is .333. The simple math shows making 1/3 of your 3s is the same (scoring-wise) as making 1/2 of your 2s.
Not a good combo when you are shooting 40% and 30% on 2pt/3pt. It was costly vs KU. Somehow we escaped when we did it down in Norman -- 40% and 31% on 2pt/3pt
hopefully Powercat Posse was using efg when talking about 50%
Yes, i was using 50% eFG in my comparison in above post
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Oh man...
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg849.imageshack.us%2Fimg849%2F7463%2Fbig12effand4factors2713.png&hash=b2e37a12575b5fa3646b049c1edd63102d4a8f64)
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Self's worst shooting team (eFG%, Big 12 games) at KU previous to this season was his first season at 51.5%.
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TCU is so bad.
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After losing to Gonzaga, who would have thought halfway thru the Big 12 schedule, Kstate would be 1st in Eff. Diff. (+11)
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I'm amazed at how many more possessions OSU gets than us. They are playing in all of these close games, if they improve their offensive efficiency even a little bit they might become a runaway train. There is no hope that our offensive FTr will show any significant progress, there isn't any reason why we can't improve defensively though, that margin is inexcusable for any team with aspirations on doing anything memorable.
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I'm amazed at how many more possessions OSU gets than us. They are playing in all of these close games, if they improve their offensive efficiency even a little bit they might become a runaway train. There is no hope that our offensive FTr will show any significant progress, there isn't any reason why we can't improve defensively though, that margin is inexcusable for any team with aspirations on doing anything memorable.
After watching OSU run offense against us and Baylor, I'm not sure how much better they can shoot. They have talent, and will have games like they had in Lawrence, but they are also prone to getting into Ford's "do whatever the heck you want mode and chuck it on offense", which is essentially what happened when they went from up 13 to up 1 in just over 3 minutes.
I agree on our FT rate. I don't see ours getting a lot better, but defensively we've got to get better at not sending teams to the line. 2/3 of our Big 12 games opponents have had at least a 40% FT rate. Honestly the points we give up doesn't bother me as much as it effects our rotations because of foul trouble and oscar's strict 2 foul rule only compounds it.
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Big 12 SOS chart based on opponents' winning percentage for games each team has played and games remaining:
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg404.imageshack.us%2Fimg404%2F4088%2Fbig122813sos.png&hash=9f0d6f446ea446ee68dfdff07e1424c7bdefe4f1)
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FWIW.... before their upset win in Lawrence, OK ST had lost 21 of last 22 road conf games under Mr Ford. Wont be stunned at all if they lose at Texas this weekend.
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(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg824.imageshack.us%2Fimg824%2F4799%2Fbig12effand4factors2101.png&hash=5aae5a7f8453acd36488ae58f4552c79e7ef3973)
Note: Last time I used kenpom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies because the raw data from spreadsheet wasn't available. This time I went back to the raw data which I usually use, so the efficiency differentials are a bit different because of that compared to the last chart.
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I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that. We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.
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I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that. We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.
Of course you do. You wouldn't be Catzacker if you didn't.
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I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that. We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.
Of course you do. You wouldn't be Catzacker if you didn't.
meh. i think it's a legitimate question/concern regardless of who asks it.
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I find Baylor odd.
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I find Baylor odd.
Half their games so far against Tech, TCU, and UT, by far the easiest league schedule to this point. Plus handled OSU in Waco.
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I find Baylor odd.
Half their games so far against Tech, TCU, and UT, by far the easiest league schedule to this point. Plus handled OSU in Waco.
Yea, I think they sink. OSU has nearly the opposite of that though and could rise. KU, KSU @ home and toughest roadie @ ISU
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i think our efg will fall, but there's no reason the ppp can't stay at 1.10 or better. there's a lot of room for improvement by a simple return to parity in the ft rate diff. oboarding can improve as well. we had a bad run with oboarding that's influencing the numbers, but it's a good oboarding team.
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I like how much our team has improved this year.
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Last 4 games our OR% is 40.0 and we are 76.1% at the FT line (54-71). That's 2 areas we were not great the first 6 conf gms.
Keep that up and we will be difficult to beat.
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I think zacker's concern is valid. Again, most people won't notice it because the media will continue to throw out traditional stats and mention that K-State is the best "scoring defense" in the league, when in reality our defense is average and we have the best offense in the league. When people ignore pace the truth gets left behind. Our rebounding has continued to improve, but eFG% and FT rate are still concerns. We've shown we can play okay in defensive grinders, but it would be nice to get that eFG% down a couple percentage points as we are now last in the league in that area.
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I think zacker's concern is valid. Again, most people won't notice it because the media will continue to throw out traditional stats and mention that K-State is the best "scoring defense" in the league, when in reality our defense is average and we have the best offense in the league. When people ignore pace the truth gets left behind. Our rebounding has continued to improve, but eFG% and FT rate are still concerns. We've shown we can play okay in defensive grinders, but it would be nice to get that eFG% down a couple percentage points as we are now last in the league in that area.
I agree the 49.3 FG% allowed is too high. We are the only ones that have played Isu twice and they shot very well against us. 46.5% is what we have allowed in the other 8 conf games. Still havent faced Baylor and their 46.3 FG% yet either. Let's hope these last 8 games, we can allow around 46.0%
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We are the only ones that have played Isu twice and they shot very well against us. 46.5% is what we have allowed in the other 8 conf games. Still havent faced Baylor and their 46.3 FG% yet either. Let's hope these last 8 games, we can allow around 46.0%
yes, great point. we've played more than our fair share of good offenses and poor defenses.
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I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that. We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.
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I still continue to believe that our Off Eff #'s can't keep that/this pace, and I question whether or defensive #'s will get better (enough) to offset that. We looked exhausted with about 3minutes to play yesterday.
Our defense isn't great, but the numbers will get better.
We play offenses ranked #4, #6, #7 (twice), #8, #9, and #10 in PPP in our remaining games. eFG% ranked #3 (WVU?), #6, #7 (twice), #8, #9, #10.
6 of 7 games against teams that are in the bottom four in offensive efficiency and shooting.
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http://msn.foxsports.com/collegebasketball/story/ken-pomeroy-college-basketball-statistics-guru-makes-sense-of-unpredictable-world-020513?m_n=true
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hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.
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hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.
Yeah. :frown:
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hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.
pffft. Like a guy who's never been a head coach or assistant coach at any level can just come in and win in the big12. Hoiberg would have been better off being a college baksetball analyst for cbs or something.
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hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.
pffft. Like a guy who's never been a head coach or assistant coach at any level can just come in and win in the big12. Hoiberg would have been better off being a college baksetball analyst for cbs or something.
GAH!
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The 3 games our D has looked poor is the 2 games vs Isu and this last game vs KU.
Those 3 games = 51.0% 2pt shots. Other 8 games = 47.6% 2pt shots. Somewhat close
Those 3 games = Allowed 23.3 3Pt shots and 44.3% per game. Other 8 games = Allowed 10.9 3Pt shots and 28.7%per game
In the 8 games where our D was good or decent, each game we allowed under 30% of the shots to be from 3pt land
In those 3 games where our D was poor, each one we allowed over 35% of the shots to be from 3... and they hit 44% of them
I know Isu is 2nd best 3pt shooting team in the conference, but interesting when we keep our opp. 3PA down, they shoot a poor %
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hoiberg is a treat, he's going to own this conference.
pffft. Like a guy who's never been a head coach or assistant coach at any level can just come in and win in the big12. Hoiberg would have been better off being a college baksetball analyst for cbs or something.
elite post
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The 3 games our D has looked poor is the 2 games vs Isu and this last game vs KU.
Those 3 games = 51.0% 2pt shots. Other 8 games = 47.6% 2pt shots. Somewhat close
Those 3 games = Allowed 23.3 3Pt shots and 44.3% per game. Other 8 games = Allowed 10.9 3Pt shots and 28.7%per game
In the 8 games where our D was good or decent, each game we allowed under 30% of the shots to be from 3pt land
In those 3 games where our D was poor, each one we allowed over 35% of the shots to be from 3... and they hit 44% of them
I know Isu is 2nd best 3pt shooting team in the conference, but interesting when we keep our opp. 3PA down, they shoot a poor %
We allowed Tech and West Virginia to score well over a point per possession. We did okay against OSU at .97 ppp, but Texas, Baylor (x2), Oklahoma, and TCU all did better. TCU scored about .9 ppp which sounds okay until you realize that their median ppp on the year (not just conference play) is .86.
We have really only played better than average defense against OU and Texas. We're just not a good defensive basketball team.
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The 3 games our D has looked poor is the 2 games vs Isu and this last game vs KU.
Those 3 games = 51.0% 2pt shots. Other 8 games = 47.6% 2pt shots. Somewhat close
Those 3 games = Allowed 23.3 3Pt shots and 44.3% per game. Other 8 games = Allowed 10.9 3Pt shots and 28.7%per game
In the 8 games where our D was good or decent, each game we allowed under 30% of the shots to be from 3pt land
In those 3 games where our D was poor, each one we allowed over 35% of the shots to be from 3... and they hit 44% of them
I know Isu is 2nd best 3pt shooting team in the conference, but interesting when we keep our opp. 3PA down, they shoot a poor %
We allowed Tech and West Virginia to score well over a point per possession. We did okay against OSU at .97 ppp, but Texas, Baylor (x2), Oklahoma, and TCU all did better. TCU scored about .9 ppp which sounds okay until you realize that their median ppp on the year (not just conference play) is .86.
We have really only played better than average defense against OU and Texas. We're just not a good defensive basketball team.
Yeah, cant say the WV and Tech games were decent. They were not great, but dont think they were awful.
Holding Osu to under 45% eFG, under 1.00ppp, and allowing them to only grab 5 ORs ...... will take anyday
TCU game .... meh, They had 44 pts with 4 min to play and we cleared the bench. I cant complain.
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There is no point in calling a defense good or bad without making comparisons. And in comparison to other Big 12 teams, K-State does not play good defense.
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The concerns about our defense have been noted and are legitimate.
Can the Cats continue to win with a high rate of offensive efficiency? Will the defensive efficiency improve as K-State plays a stretch against some of the bad offenses in the league?
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Hey _FAN do you know what KenPom's AdjO takes into account? I notice you don't use that number in your charts (which are rough ridin' fantastic by the way), and I was just curious why.
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Hey _FAN do you know what KenPom's AdjO takes into account? I notice you don't use that number in your charts (which are rough ridin' fantastic by the way), and I was just curious why.
Here is kenpom's explanation:
Adjusted efficiency: Raw offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The adjusted version adjusts for the quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight).
I decided to go with the raw numbers, in part due to the fact that none of the other numbers are adjusted based on those same variables. Plus, as the season plays out, the raw numbers pretty much even out to kenpom's adjusted numbers anyway.
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Hey _FAN do you know what KenPom's AdjO takes into account? I notice you don't use that number in your charts (which are rough ridin' fantastic by the way), and I was just curious why.
Here is kenpom's explanation:
Adjusted efficiency: Raw offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 offensive possessions. The adjusted version adjusts for the quality of opposing defenses, the site of each game, and when each game was played (recent games get more weight).
I decided to go with the raw numbers, in part due to the fact that none of the other numbers are adjusted based on those same variables. Plus, as the season plays out, the raw numbers pretty much even out to kenpom's adjusted numbers anyway.
Thanks.
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The concerns about our defense have been noted and are legitimate.
Can the Cats continue to win with a high rate of offensive efficiency? Will the defensive efficiency improve as K-State plays a stretch against some of the bad offenses in the league?
Let's hope the Def Eff is better in our remaining home games for sure. And it should be. TCU and Tech are bad.
Baylor in road games at KU, Osu and Isu scored below a 1.00ppp in each game and shot 41.4% FG combined in those 3
WV in road games at Tex, Isu, Osu and Baylor..... only averaged .94 ppp and 44.2%
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Only 1/3 of the Big 12 season is left!
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Its clear that our plan (hope) to win games is to be the team that "our scores" opponents, meaning that teams in general are going to have decent to good success scoring out of their offense. The key is that we do force them to waste many more possessions than we do (as I discussed earlier in the thread), and we have to have those because teams will shoot decently against us.
In our 12 conference games, half the time teams have performed better than their offensive PPP from the chart, and half have been worse. Only once on the road have we forced a team below their offensive PPP, @OU. And only 3 times have teams scored fewer than 1.0 PPP, UT, @TCU, and @Tech. TCU and Tech still performed better than their offensive PPP on average though.
And eFG% defense is even worse; only 3 times have teams shot worse than their ave eFG% against us; @OU, OSU, and UT. Teams shoot 2.5% better against us than their ave eFG% per game in our 12 league games.
Again, the question becomes can we continue to win with our shooting, especially 3PT%, forcing TOs while not turning over (Bo-sketball), all while giving up pretty average numbers in PPP and eFG%. I think its good enough to go 4-2 to finish out the year, it will take better defensive performances though to win in Waco and Stillwater.
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A lot of our numbers are going to get juiced because the remaining schedule. Just having TCU, TECH and WVU at home will do some magic. :driving:
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turnover cats.
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Yes our Defense on the road has to be better from here on out.
At home, 5 of the 6 games we have held our opp to 1.00 or below. Only game where our D not playing well put us in a little jeopardy was the Isu game (where they got 1.13) and us having a great game on offense got us through that game
The Def eFG% has only been 50.5 at home, but us forcing 25.6 TO% and having a difference of +10.8 on TO% is fantastic.
TO% Difference on the road is basicly 0 (we have 67 TOs to our opp 68). I think we can win 2 of these 3 roads, but breaking even in TO% difference and letting our opp shoot 50% or better isnt gonna do it
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would it be a fair one sentence assessment to say that we play consistently bad post defense, which we can usually overcome with TO ratio and offensive efficiency, and have been victimized at times when facing above-average guard play(Burke&Hardaway, McLemore&Co, and Iowa State when they make everything)?
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Where do you get your four factors data from?
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Where do you get your four factors data from?
kenpom, but statsheet has the same stuff.
Would you like me to make you a special edition big 10 edition? It is a snow day.
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Where do you get your four factors data from?
kenpom, but statsheet has the same stuff.
Would you like me to make you a special edition big 10 edition? It is a snow day.
Oh man, _FAN. :love: That would great. I'm starting to get into advanced stats. The fever, I have it.
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Happy Snow Day Mr. Bread.
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Indiana. Good grief.
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Feel free to share with your Illini brethren. And you know what they say, once you go advanced you won't go back.
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Thanks _FAN. You're the best.
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I would not have guessed that the fighting breads were dead last in the conference at getting to the free throw line. My word. Everything else jives with what my eyes have seen.
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I would not have guessed that the fighting breads were dead last in the conference at getting to the free throw line. My word. Everything else jives with what my eyes have seen.
It is interesting how similar the Breads are to the Bruces, except for offensive eFG%.
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Indiana. Good grief.
Yeah. I was telling someone after they won in East Lansing that they should be #1 with a big gap between them and #2. Glad that the stats back up my position.
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Indiana. Good grief.
Yeah. I was telling someone after they won in East Lansing that they should be #1 with a big gap between them and #2. Glad that the stats back up my position.
Likely Final 4 team.
Gasaway did an ESPN blog earlier in the year talking about the average PPP scoring margin differential in Final 4 teams (past 7 seasons), and the average has been +.13 in their league games the last . UConn was the big exception with a differential of only +.01 in Big East games a couple years ago.
I did further research and found the average differential for Elite 8 teams was +.11 over the last 3 seasons.
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Indiana. Good grief.
Yeah. I was telling someone after they won in East Lansing that they should be #1 with a big gap between them and #2. Glad that the stats back up my position.
Likely Final 4 team.
Gasaway did an ESPN blog earlier in the year talking about the average PPP scoring margin differential in Final 4 teams (past 7 seasons), and the average has been +.13 in their league games the last . UConn was the big exception with a differential of only +.01 in Big East games a couple years ago.
I did further research and found the average differential for Elite 8 teams was +.11 over the last 3 seasons.
The average is great, but what's the range on that? Are there some down near +.05 or are they all about .08-.15?
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The top PPP differential teams (conference games only) as of last Tuesday (from Gasaway's Tuesday Truths):
Florida 0.36
Indiana 0.21
Memphis 0.21
Miami 0.19
Southern Miss 0.17
Louisville 0.15
Saint Louis 0.15
Colorado St. 0.15
VCU 0.14
Wichita St. 0.14
Creighton 0.14
Michigan 0.13
Virginia 0.12
Kansas 0.12
Duke 0.11
Oklahoma St. 0.11
Syracuse 0.11
Michigan St. 0.11
Baylor 0.10
Pitt 0.10
Missouri 0.10
Kansas St. 0.09
Iowa St. 0.09
Georgetown 0.09
Arizona 0.06
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The average is great, but what's the range on that? Are there some down near +.05 or are they all about .08-.15?
Here is the entire list (last 3 years Elite 8 teams):
UK 0.26
Butler 0.20
Duke 0.18
KU 0.18
NC 0.17
KU 0.17
OSU 0.16
Syr 0.15
UK 0.14
UF 0.12
UK 0.12
WVU 0.12
NC 0.11
Butler 0.09
KSU 0.09
BU 0.09
BU 0.07
MSU 0.07
UF 0.06
VCU 0.06
Ari 0.06
UT 0.04
Lou 0.03
Uconn 0.01
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Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?
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Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?
Yes, the really good Bulter was the one we played.
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Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?
Yes, the really good Bulter was the one we played.
I just mean that there are 3 BU's on that list even though Baylor only made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years, and there is only 1 Butler, even though they made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years.
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Is one of the BU's supposed to be Butler?
Yes, the really good Bulter was the one we played.
I just mean that there are 3 BU's on that list even though Baylor only made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years, and there is only 1 Butler, even though they made the Elite 8 twice in the past 3 years.
Fixed.
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I would not have guessed that the fighting breads were dead last in the conference at getting to the free throw line. My word. Everything else jives with what my eyes have seen.
It is interesting how similar the Breads are to the Bruces, except for offensive eFG%.
Very interesting.
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Kstate = PPP 1.20 or better in 6 of the last 8 games
We had 1.20 or better 6 times in 50 conf games (2010-2012)
The Cats 1.11 ppp in Big 12 play ---- Tied for 23rd (out of 340 teams) in conf games. Isu is tied for 19th
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Full Big 12 ADV will be here Thursday AM, but while we wait for the results of Wed's slate...
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2540 (includes last night's games)
Why coaches should do one-and-done or two-and-through: In the rankings and in the mock brackets, Kansas State is regarded as fundamentally different than Kansas. But the counsel of a thousand Big 12 possessions suggests these two teams may be much more similar in performance terms than people think. True, KU with new-look Johnson could separate from the pack, and K-State has two road games remaining (at Baylor and Oklahoma State) to the Jayhawks' one (also in Waco), so the numbers seen here are a work in progress. Still, the Wildcats have been surprisingly good to this point. I don't have the final tallies from the relevant years at Southern Illinois in front of me, but based on stops in Champaign and now Manhattan it would appear that early-era oscar Weber teams are often very good on offense.
:D
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early era :lol:
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Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.
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Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.
Well, we are pretty good shooters... but teams shoot well against us.
I do like the +.11 points per possession differential.
Plus rebounding has come around to be neutral.
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Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.
if i am reading statsheet.com correctly, we have made 36 more 3s than our opponents in conference play, only ISU has a larger differential at 62
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Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.
if i am reading statsheet.com correctly, we have made 36 more 3s than our opponents in conference play, only ISU has a larger differential at 62
While the numbers are a bit different (and not quite as dramatic), this explanation I put up a couple of weeks ago still holds true.
I appreciate that posters at goEMAW like advanced stats and have a good understanding of their impact on the game (and usefulness for analysis), but sometimes its helpful to see how they translate back to traditional stats and how they actually impact points scored or not scored during a game.
First we'll look at TO%. K-State has an impressive advantage of almost 6%, .159 compared to .217. The net impact of that when you factor in K-State's average of 62.7 possessions per game ends up giving K-State 3.6 "extra" possessions compared to their opponent. When factored into K-State's average of 1.06 points per possession, on paper that gives K-State an advantage of 3.8 points per game, but I think the impact actually becomes a bit larger because of other factors that I'll get to later.
Next is OR%. K-State has started to even out, but still is at a -2.4% margin, .290 to .314. However, the impact is much less because through Big 12 games K-State averages 56 shots and 31 misses. At a .290 OR%, that means K-State gains 9.0 offensive boards per game. Meanwhile opponents average only 49 shots (see TO%) and 27 misses; or 8.5 off boards per game. As a result of forcing TOs and getting more shot opportunities, K-State ends up with .5 more offensive boards per game than opponents.
When we look at FT rate, this is the only factor that nets K-State a negative impact. K-State's opponents are averaging a .434 FT rate in conference games; when multiplied by 49 shots, that nets 21.3 FT attempts, and at .629 FT%, opponents score 13.4 points per game at the FT line. Meanwhile, K-State's .240 FT rate when multiplied by 56 shots gives K-State 13.4 attempts at .673 FT% for 9 points per game for a significant difference of 4.4 points per game.
However, now we go back to eFG% where K-State gains a huge advantage. That TO% and 3.6 more possessions gives K-State extra shot opportunities (and the FT rate disadvantage takes away opponent shot attempts), giving K-State the shot advantage of 56 attempts compared to 49 for opponents. Then when you factor in K-State's eFG% advantage of .515 to .481, the Cats end up with 28.8 "made shots" compared to only 23.6 "makes" for opponents. Of course, eFG% factors in 3PT makes as 1.5 2PT "makes", so you can just multiply the "made shots" by 2 to get the net advantage. As a result K-State scores 57.6 points off of "shooting" compared to only 47.1 for opponents and an impressive 10.5 points per game advantage. This more than overrides the disadvantage on from FT rate, and when you add total points per game scored from "shooting" (57.6 to 47.1) and FTs (9.0 to 13.4), you get K-State's net advantage in Big 12 play of 66.6 to 60.5.
Again, this illustrates why TO% and eFG% differentials are more important than OR% and FT rate. Of course you want to win all of them, and if K-State closes the gap in FT rate and continues to be near even in OR% while maintaining the eFG% and TO% numbers, 2nd should be vary attainable, and possibly 1st with the continued problems KU continues to show, especially in TO%.
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Looking at that, I have no idea how we tied for first but I will take it. The only thing we excel at is Turnover rate.
Our TO% DIF has been solid all conf season long. So has the eFG and 3pt shooting.
O-Rebounding has taken a nice jump up and even though our FTR is not great, our FT shooting has been
There is a good reason why we are 8-1 in these past 9 games
* We are +2.9 in TOs differ per game. That is 3 extra possessions for us to score
* Our OR% is 39.1% (which is about 5% better than our opp)
* We are shooting 78.4% from the FT line
* Our 40% 3pt shooting has helped keep our eFG over 52%
All of those contribute to us scoring 1.19ppp in 7 of those 9 games and ave 1.17 ppp
For comparisons..... We are at 1.17 last 9 gms. In conf games, Indiana is 6th in the nation in ppp at 1.16
Cats are 23rd nationally in ppp counting all of our 15 games
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1st now in B12 in Def TO% to go along with 1st in TO% DIF.
Still top 10 (6th nationally) in A/To ratio in conf games
Top 30 nationally in 3pt shooting % (29th) and PPP (27th) in conf games
We are up to 3rd in B12 in OR%. WV and KU ahead of us
Last 10 games we are 39.0%. WV (37.5) and KU (36.9) in their last 10
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Seeing OR% on the rise is great, even if our opp OR% still isn't stellar. Pretty tough to stop on offense when you shoot well, don't turn the ball over, and get a good percentage of your misses.
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Seeing OR% on the rise is great, even if our opp OR% still isn't stellar. Pretty tough to stop on offense when you shoot well, don't turn the ball over, and get a good percentage of your misses.
I mentioned it earlier in this thread, but it is still true, there is no stat that correlates to this K-State team winning more than OR%.
In games where our OR% is <= 30% we are 2-5.
In all other games we are 22-0.
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Seeing OR% on the rise is great, even if our opp OR% still isn't stellar. Pretty tough to stop on offense when you shoot well, don't turn the ball over, and get a good percentage of your misses.
I mentioned it earlier in this thread, but it is still true, there is no stat that correlates to this K-State team winning more than OR%.
In games where our OR% is <= 30% we are 2-5.
In all other games we are 22-0.
That is a good stat. The 2 wins are both vs OU
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So, 16 games done. Of the 9 guys we play on a regular basis, 8 of them are above 50.0% eFG. Pretty amazing.
Angel is at 44.6%. He struggled shooting early in conf play, but in his last 8 games, he is at 54.6%
16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games. Damn what a stud.
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16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games. Damn what a stud.
Oh my.
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16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games. Damn what a stud.
Oh my.
My goodness that's a great stat line.
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16.0 pts, 6.1 ast, 2.0 stls, 54.6% eFG, 43.2% 3pt, 89.2% FT -- Angel's last 8 games. Damn what a stud.
Oh my.
Those shooting %s are positively Nashian.
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Updated list of the current leading points per possession scoring margin teams in conference games:
Gonzaga 0.30
Florida 0.29
St. Mary's 0.20
Memphis 0.19
Indiana 0.18
Kansas 0.17
Louisville 0.17
St. Louis 0.16
Southern Miss 0.15
Creighton 0.15
Miami 0.15
VCU 0.14
Duke 0.13
Okla State 0.12
Pitt 0.12
Virginia 0.12
K-State 0.11
Georgetown 0.11
Michigan 0.11
Wisconsin 0.11
New Mexico 0.11
Missouri 0.10
Wichita St 0.10
Syracuse 0.09
Marquette 0.09
Colorado St 0.09
Michigan St 0.08
SD State 0.08
North Carolina 0.08
Ohio St 0.07
Arizona 0.06
Oregon 0.05
UCLA 0.05
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#10 among teams that are in real conferences! :emawkid:
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#10 among teams that are in real conferences! :emawkid:
Yeah, I suppose you could correlate .10-.12 in an AQ conference to .15-.16 in the NonAQ teams.
But Gonzaga is legit, .30 is ridiculous. But so is Florida's .29 in the SEC, though the SEC is the worst AQ conference this year with only 2 teams that are locks for the NCAAs.
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Full Big 12 update will be up tomorrow after tonight's games, but nobody thought this team would maintain the shooting we saw early in Big 12 play. Yet, here we sit with the most efficient offense in the league (1.13 PPP) and the 2nd best shooting team in the league (53.2%). Best 3PT% team (39.2%) and 2nd best 2PT% team (50.1%) with the 3rd best TO% (17.6%) and OR% improved drastically to 3rd (34.5%). FT rate is not impressive, but it really didn't need to be as oscar turned this into a jump shooting team that makes a lot of them.
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Also, after a game in which we assisted 87% of our made shots, the Cats moved their Big 12 A% to 67.4%.
And then I saw this quote:
"Coach has a phrase for us and he says, 'Share the juices,'" Irving said. "We have all been saying with it and joke around with it, but we're at our best when we're passing the ball to each other, assisting, moving without the ball, getting Rodney open and just share the juices."
oscar :D
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So, this far into the season, you are who you are and therefore we are whatever our stats say we are (really efficient on offense, not so efficient on defense). I’m rather shocked it has kept up like this offensively. I expect the ball to go in when we shoot (wish we were in better position for rebounds – the emphasis seems to be only where the shot comes from and not on where we’re at for the rebound). And defensively, I’ve come to look at it similar to how I looked at our defense in football – I never thought we have/had a really good defense, I thought we had an offense that by its efficient nature scored big (touchdowns instead of FG’s, 3’s instead of 2’s) when it needed to and limited possessions of the other team (turnovers, TO rate) contributing to our defense’s raw numbers.
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So we are 2nd best in the league with 50.1% from 2pt? Pretty good. That's a stat that sometimes gets lost in the shuffle at times.
Us shooting 50% from 2 and 40% from 3 .... any game we do this, we will be tough to beat
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Shares Juice oscar!!
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I know I shouldn't care as much because we do other things really well on offense, but that FTR is abysmal :frown:
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I know I shouldn't care as much because we do other things really well on offense, but that FTR is abysmal :frown:
Its fine if his system works and we hit jumpers (especially 3s) and don't turn the ball over.
If the system doesn't work... see 08, 10, and 12 at Illinois. Its no coincidence that those were his 3 worst 3PT shooting teams.
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Full Big 12 update will be up tomorrow after tonight's games, but nobody thought this team would maintain the shooting we saw early in Big 12 play. Yet, here we sit with the most efficient offense in the league (1.13 PPP) and the 2nd best shooting team in the league (53.2%). Best 3PT% team (39.2%) and 2nd best 2PT% team (50.1%) with the 3rd best TO% (17.6%) and OR% improved drastically to 3rd (34.5%). FT rate is not impressive, but it really didn't need to be as oscar turned this into a jump shooting team that makes a lot of them.
will being hurt and unable to shoot the past few games certainly helped.
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FWIW.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg94.imageshack.us%2Fimg94%2F2638%2Fbruce3ptto.png&hash=b80f63857906c944fe35e6d63b01e193d931721c)
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I mean, this is just a super weird resume with all kinds of strange trends. Glad we're winning though.
From kenpom
(https://dl.dropbox.com/u/10651047/kenpom/BruceResume.JPG)
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look at the FTR when they went 37-2 :sdeek:
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look at the FTR when they went 37-2 :sdeek:
Yeah, that makes me feel a little better.
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That is a great chart, SleepFighter. I did not know KenPom did that. I should probably give him some of my money.
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That is a great chart, SleepFighter. I did not know KenPom did that. I should probably give him some of my money.
His stuff is great.
I took my chart from his and simplified it. Its simplistic, but I thought the correlation of 3PT% and TO% to winning and losing with oscar is pretty telling.
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look at the FTR when they went 37-2 :sdeek:
Yeah, that makes me feel a little better.
That team was so goddamn fun to watch. They were a rough ridin' machine on offense. Each possession they just ground the defense down. They didn't give a crap who took the shot, just that it was the best shot. So patient.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJf3gnNEB3M (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJf3gnNEB3M)
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look at the FTR when they went 37-2 :sdeek:
Yeah, that makes me feel a little better.
That team was so goddamn fun to watch. They were a rough ridin' machine on offense. Each possession they just ground the defense down. They didn't give a crap who took the shot, just that it was the best shot. So patient.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJf3gnNEB3M (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJf3gnNEB3M)
:love: :love: :love: + one more :love: because I love headbands
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That is a great chart, SleepFighter. I did not know KenPom did that. I should probably give him some of my money.
There's really not much on his site that you can't find other places, but the way he puts it together is really great.
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Considering the makeup of this team when he took over, if you would have told me that this was going to be oscar's worst defensive team since he was at Southern Illinois, I would have been convinced that we would struggle to make the NIT.
And yet, here we are, in position to get a conference trophy with one game left in the season.
My mind boggles.
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Considering the makeup of this team when he took over, if you would have told me that this was going to be oscar's worst defensive team since he was at Southern Illinois, I would have been convinced that we would struggle to make the NIT.
And yet, here we are, in position to get a conference trophy with one game left in the season.
My mind boggles.
Yes, completely. To win with Frank's players is one thing, but to take them from a chew your face off defensive and oboarding team to an efficient offense with defensive issues and still be successful is pretty amazing. I don't know if it says anything good or bad for the future, but it has been a strange (but fun) transition to watch.
But when you win, almost anything is fun.
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It's not just the transition, but also there doesn't appear to be precedent for it in oscar's resume.
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It's not just the transition, but also there doesn't appear to be precedent for it in oscar's resume.
He used to talk a lot at Illinois about how much time they spent practicing defense at the expense of offense, and there were even occasions where he made statements about not really having "put the offense in yet" and it would be very late in the ooc schedule. Maybe he allocated more of his time on offense with this group than he ordinarily would have relying perhaps on residual JYC/Frank tenacity carry over and it cost him a bit in their grasp and execution of it in the long run as the tenacity waned sans Frank. It's a theory.
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Full Big 12 update will be up tomorrow after tonight's games, but nobody thought this team would maintain the shooting we saw early in Big 12 play. Yet, here we sit with the most efficient offense in the league (1.13 PPP) and the 2nd best shooting team in the league (53.2%). Best 3PT% team (39.2%) and 2nd best 2PT% team (50.1%) with the 3rd best TO% (17.6%) and OR% improved drastically to 3rd (34.5%). FT rate is not impressive, but it really didn't need to be as oscar turned this into a jump shooting team that makes a lot of them.
will being hurt and unable to shoot the past few games certainly helped.
Not sure how Will being hurt helped. Prior to Baylor game, in the previous 13 games Will was 60.8 eFG% and 44.0% from 3pt.
What is impressive is we had a bad TO game against WV, we had a poor shooting 3pt game vs Tech, and only shot 7 FTs vs Tcu and our ppp was still real good in those 3 gms.
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Final regular season numbers for 2012-13.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg585.imageshack.us%2Fimg585%2F5720%2Fbig12effand4factors3101.png&hash=3a68e5b375458e46af9a789ed3bce56eb5e1a0fc)
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Ended the season tied for creating the most turnovers, and turning it over the second least. That'll win you the league.
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We were the best OR team in the Big 12 and ave 1.17 ppp over the final 12 games.
Combine that with our great job with the TO% Dif .....
and yeah, that's the makeup of a CHAMPION!
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I don't get why our defense is so bad (relatively speaking).
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I don't get why our defense is so bad (relatively speaking).
We didn't give up a back door in the last half of big 12 play, I think you are nitpicking.
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I don't get why our defense is so bad (relatively speaking).
playing southie and gippy so much has something to do with it.
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I don't get why our defense is so bad (relatively speaking).
playing southie and gippy so much has something to do with it.
Yep. Some matchups are hard for Shane (and Nino too) and then we have no shot blocking ability when Gip is in. It is what it is. Just meens we have to continue to be really good on offense
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So what value, from a defensive PPP perspective, would playing JO provide? Because that’s what I’m hearing the difference is. And I don’t buy it, quite frankly.
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So what value, from a defensive PPP perspective, would playing JO provide? Because that’s what I’m hearing the difference is. And I don’t buy it, quite frankly.
A little, but not much.
Teams reflect what they work on most, given the talent they possess. Its obvious oscar put a lot of time into the offense/shooting and defense suffered a bit, but the key is the efficiency differential of +.104. in conference games. That's a pretty good number.
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I think JO makes a difference in how teams attack us, when he's in I don't think that teams attack the paint nearly as much/well and clearly dribble drive defense is weak. I have no data to back that up though.
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http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/player/kansas-state/jordan-henriguez-roberts/plus_minus?season=2012-2013
:dunno:
I'm just hopeful his back doesn't give him problems in the postseason.
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So what value, from a defensive PPP perspective, would playing JO provide? Because that’s what I’m hearing the difference is. And I don’t buy it, quite frankly.
A little, but not much.
Teams reflect what they work on most, given the talent they possess. Its obvious oscar put a lot of time into the offense/shooting and defense suffered a bit, but the key is the efficiency differential of +.104. in conference games. That's a pretty good number.
I suppose the "point of emphasis" theory has some validity. It certainly would provide a reason for the increase in the offensive production – but the decrease in defensive production, especially given the mentality that was engrained into those players, is kind of mind boggling. And then when you factor in oscar’s coach speak about “hey, the offense sucked early on because we just focused on defense but then we focused on offense over the break and now our offense is super awesome”, I’m even further confused. We would be more than a consistent, good team if we could or had improved our defense. We would be a great team.
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True.
For comparos, the past 7 years (Big 12) DEF EFF...
1.02
1.01
1.05
0.97
1.00
0.97
1.02
OFF EFF:
1.06
1.11
1.02
1.06
1.04
1.02
1.12
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The end of another Big 12 regular season means the return of the Big 12 ten year EFF and 4 Factors chart. Color coded so you can (sort of) follow the trends for each team; each season is sorted by best to worst in both OFF and DEF for each category.
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg41.imageshack.us%2Fimg41%2F6798%2F2013big12tenyeareff.png&hash=357e64c95e53db30945484e53013a173cf2dc308)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg543.imageshack.us%2Fimg543%2F1048%2F2013big12tenyearefg.png&hash=016b8e5d82cb38766b973e67068bb01b826c0265)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg546.imageshack.us%2Fimg546%2F9646%2F2013big12tenyearto.png&hash=8fcf34207deded17cc2624851a580760d6f5a306)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg23.imageshack.us%2Fimg23%2F4530%2F2013big12tenyearor.png&hash=cb284f32f183ebbab2012a544ba5d06589327016)
(https://goemaw.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg715.imageshack.us%2Fimg715%2F5411%2F2013big12tenyearftr.png&hash=4c10f91e2dad72752f2ec1aaedf5469e8ce74605)