if he'd have been all - "melsie, you're always trying to kill the children of kings and now our king's child seems to have come up dead, hows about you tell me what happened" about 8 episodes back, i'd have found it a lot more believable than the one random old dude who gives a crap about carved deer toys stumbling across the only carved deer toy within a 1000 miles, squinting at it for a bit and then suddenly piecing together a child's murder.