A statistical survey of the Big 12 north

[Chingon]

As anyone who has the read the board lately knows, a "hot" topic of conversation has been the Big 12 north.  From the reversal of fortune for dominant powers like KSU to the uprise of a plucky Missouri, since its inception the B12N has been nothing but thrilling!  Below is a graphical "history" of the B12N, chronicling the number of conference wins per season since 1996.



   What a ride!

As I was preparing this chart, a small child wandered up to me, and in her innocence asked about the large spike for the green line in 2007. 

"That seems out of place!", she pointed. 

I replied, "Well, my dear, you have a keen eye, but I think this calls for some statistical analysis."

So I did.

I applied Grubbs' test for outliers to ku's complete B12 conference record.  Lo and behold, the 2007 was indeed classified as a statistical anomaly (almost the very definition of fluke).  In fact, there was a less than 5% chance for that season to occur, and less than 5% chance it will happen again (given ku's conference record thus far). 

But wait a minute Chingon!  What about the rest of the B12N?  Surely your analysis would should they had fluke seasons as well?  Below is a chart of the results:



Plotted is the "Z" value (a measure of flukiness) vs year.  The yellow line is the cut for outlier data in a sample of 13 events.

When the exact same analysis is applied to other B12N teams and as it turns out, only ku's 2007 season was anomalous. 

The 2007 ku FB team was the flukiest team in the history of the B12N (and probably the B12 as whole, that work is to be done...)


As an aside 1998, 2004, 2005, and 2008 were KSU's most out of character seasons.

[hemmy]

lil too sciency for me

[steve dave]

Wow, great stuff chings 

[purplebybirth]

i'm taking statistics right now, and you obviously have a better understanding and ability to utilize it than i do.

[The Nasti]

 

Beautiful...you have true 

[phicat1448]

a purple nubb line and red emaw line confuses me greatly

[Kat Kid]

awesome.

just awesome.

[Ben Ji 2.0]

a purple nubb line and red emaw line confuses me greatly

Maybe if we went to class a little more in stats 2 we would be able to do cool stuff like that

[cireksu]

there you go.

[Pete]

Wow.  Very solid.

Can you do the South as well, and prove your point about the entire Big 12?

[Chingon]

Wow.  Very solid.

Can you do the South as well, and prove your point about the entire Big 12?

Yessiree



Well it seems I jumped the gun a tad bit.  In fact ku shares the flukiest season with the 1997 Texas squad that won only 2 conference games (a great program with a random terrible year and a mediocre program with one good year, the symmetry is amazing!)

So we can say the 2007 ku and the 1997 Texas teams were the flukiest teams in B12 history, one got a coach fired and another a big fat raise.

[KSUTOMMY]

I wish I knew what in the fck you were talking about. I avoided anything that had to do with math like a co-ed avoids ol bumpy pecker at uk. My statistical analysis dictated that all that studying for math would interfer greatly with my drinking time. I envy anyone who can whip this stuff out though - BRAVO Chingon!

[fatty fat fat]

great job chings. grubbs test.


i don't like admitting the 2007 hawks were a fluke (sounds disrespectful) but damn. 

[KSUTOMMY]

That is about as rock-solid as you could ask for. ukfan, what say you?

chirp chirp

[j@yh@wks]

That is about as rock-solid as you could ask for. ukfan, what say you?

chirp chirp

If it makes your little purple heart feel better about your DODWNCAOOB12C by calling 2007 a fluke, then do what you need to do to sleep.  It was a hell of a ride and one of the biggest surprises that year.  Taking that same graph and applying it throughout the history of college football you would see that the DoD was a massive fluke, bigger than ku's 07 season.   

[Winters]

That is about as rock-solid as you could ask for. ukfan, what say you?

chirp chirp

If it makes your little purple heart feel better about your DODWNCAOOB12C by calling 2007 a fluke, then do what you need to do to sleep.  It was a hell of a ride and one of the biggest surprises that year.  Taking that same graph and applying it throughout the history of college football you would see that the DoD was a massive fluke, bigger than ku's 07 season.   

[FelixRex]

incredible

[KSUTOMMY]

That is about as rock-solid as you could ask for. ukfan, what say you?

chirp chirp

If it makes your little purple heart feel better about your DODWNCAOOB12C by calling 2007 a fluke, then do what you need to do to sleep.  It was a hell of a ride and one of the biggest surprises that year.  Taking that same graph and applying it throughout the history of college football you would see that the DoD was a massive fluke, bigger than ku's 07 season.   

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

[j@yh@wks]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

[LimestoneOutcropping]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

Just think if you had won a North Title!!!!!

[FelixRex]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

Just think if you had won a North Title!!!!!

Dare to dream:

[Pete]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

Just think if you had won a North Title!!!!!

If they keep working hard and doing things the right way, some day they'll have a winning conference record.  Until then, only dreams can fill that void.

Oh, and calling the DoD a "fluke" shows some amazing ignorance of the statistical principles that Chingon displayed for us in this thread. 

[j@yh@wks]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

Just think if you had won a North Title!!!!!

If they keep working hard and doing things the right way, some day they'll have a winning conference record.  Until then, only dreams can fill that void.

Oh, and calling the DoD a "fluke" shows some amazing ignorance of the statistical principles that Chingon displayed for us in this thread. 

sorry for my ignorance.  what i see is one major spike over a 12 year period.  looking over the history of CF and KSU you see 11 major spikes over a 110 year period.  looks fluky to me.  but i'm a computer major so you would have to explain the statistical principles on this one. 

[j@yh@wks]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

Just think if you had won a North Title!!!!!

how awesome would that have been.  The beat down from OU would have sucked though.  I don't really dwell on the what ifs that season, i take it for what it was.  A good team, week schedule, and a screw job over moo for a BCS spot.  How sad would that season have been if they made it to the B12CG and got smashed 52-17 by OU, only to go to the crap bowl to play a coachless arkansas team.  that year wouldn't have been that great, but we got our reality check by losing to moo and then gave them the biggest kick to the crotch by being selected to the OB.  They like to spin it as "we ruined your perfect season", what they really did was save us from being exposed in the B12CG and then a possible bowl loss because of the let down.  Like I said, what a freaking season. 

[KSUTOMMY]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

Just think if you had won a North Title!!!!!

how awesome would that have been.  The beat down from OU would have sucked though.  I don't really dwell on the what ifs that season, i take it for what it was.  A good team, week schedule, and a screw job over moo for a BCS spot.  How sad would that season have been if they made it to the B12CG and got smashed 52-17 by OU, only to go to the crap bowl to play a coachless arkansas team.  that year wouldn't have been that great, but we got our reality check by losing to moo and then gave them the biggest kick to the crotch by being selected to the OB.  They like to spin it as "we ruined your perfect season", what they really did was save us from being exposed in the B12CG and then a possible bowl loss because of the let down.  Like I said, what a freaking season. 

I have new found respect for your opinion - you may continue to attack me and I will attack you as well but, I never thought I would say this... we have found a realist in uknation. Someday, we will have to 

[j@yh@wks]

Well, you are correct - that would have been a great feeling - I cannot take that away from you. At least you are close to agreeing that it was an anomoly though. Kind of like when Marshall went undefeated -

No doubt that it was an anomaly looking at the history of ku football.  Doesn't take away from the fact that it was a freaking awesome season.

Just think if you had won a North Title!!!!!

how awesome would that have been.  The beat down from OU would have sucked though.  I don't really dwell on the what ifs that season, i take it for what it was.  A good team, week schedule, and a screw job over moo for a BCS spot.  How sad would that season have been if they made it to the B12CG and got smashed 52-17 by OU, only to go to the crap bowl to play a coachless arkansas team.  that year wouldn't have been that great, but we got our reality check by losing to moo and then gave them the biggest kick to the crotch by being selected to the OB.  They like to spin it as "we ruined your perfect season", what they really did was save us from being exposed in the B12CG and then a possible bowl loss because of the let down.  Like I said, what a freaking season. 

I have new found respect for your opinion - you may continue to attack me and I will attack you as well but, I never thought I would say this... we have found a realist in uknation. Someday, we will have to 

I'm pretty real about serious talk.  I am the only ku fan in my family, the rest are k-staters, and my wife's family are all some serious nubs.  I like to rib and i can handle ribbing.  I live in nub and all my friends are nubs so i am pretty well adapted to non-serious football talk.  I do not have any fellow ku friends up here so that's probably why i hang here more than kusports, having people agreeing with each other non-stop gets pretty boring to me.

[KSUTOMMY]

I am the only ku fan in my family, the rest are k-staters

= you are the Blacksheep my freind - YOU are the outcast.

[j@yh@wks]

I am the only ku fan in my family, the rest are k-staters

= you are the Blacksheep my freind - YOU are the outcast.

LOL.  They still like me though.

[KSUTOMMY]

I am the only ku fan in my family, the rest are k-staters

= you are the Blacksheep my freind - YOU are the outcast.

LOL.  They still like me though.

I kid. 

[steve dave]

I am the only ku fan in my family, the rest are k-staters

Your family sounds great looking