There is no positive spin to this one.

[catzacker]

i think what will help next year is that we'll probably tone down our OOC and frank won't frank around with the lineup in order to get these guys as much experience together as possible.

[sys]

we're going to be horrible next year, aren't we.  i mean, wally sucks, jamar is nothing good, freddy is an incredible POS, and lol at JHR, sprads is white, russell can't stay on the floor, irving is average at best.  mcgruds is the only non Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!). 

i don't agree with your player assessments.  but anyways, no, not horrible.  a&mish, maybe.

you don't agree sprads is white?  a&m seems like a ceiling for next year's team. 

i should have said "all your player assessments".  i do agree that spradling is white, that jhr is lol @, that russell can't stay on the  floor, and that mcgruder is not Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).

[MakeItRain]

I see us being like 08-09 next year.  Should be a 7 to 9 win league team, likely on the bubble. 

Didn't the 08-09 team win 10 conference games?

As for next year, under .500? You're drunk.

Our fan base has this attitude that if you're not a NC contender then you're going to suck.  I guess its a by-product of having KU down the road that makes us feel so inferior.  There is no reason that this program can't be a Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, Texas type program.  There is no doubt that we are already a top 20 program today, you think any of the other fan bases of top 20 programs think that the loss of two seniors will all of a sudden make them a 7-11 team?

I think you are grossly underselling what Beasley & Walker meant for the 07-08 team.  Kelly and Pullen aren't as good as those guys were.  Add to that the 08 recruiting class added nothing.  I'd take this 10-11 team minus Jake and Curtis over that 08-09 team this minute.  Add to what the recruiting class will add, I think 11-12 will be better.

[catzacker]

i'm not sure any of the incoming for next year will provide much of anything.  so we're going with the soft team we have now sans pullen and kelly.  and that's not factoring in who gets sutton'd in the off season, my guess is jamar or wally.

[nicname]

I see us being like 08-09 next year.  Should be a 7 to 9 win league team, likely on the bubble. 

Our fan base has this attitude that if you're not a NC contender then you're going to suck.  I guess its a by-product of having KU down the road that makes us feel so inferior.  There is no reason that this program can't be a Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, Texas type program.  There is no doubt that we are already a top 20 program today, you think any of the other fan bases of top 20 programs think that the loss of two seniors will all of a sudden make them a 7-11 team?

This is the most important thing with our fanbase.  I'm not talking about "tards" or "non-tards," it infects everyone, myself included.

I posted a week or two ago that I would be pretty proud and happy if we could be, on average a fringe top 25 type team.  A program that averaged around 10-6 in conference and a 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

I was laughed at for the suggestion and told I had low expectations, etc. 

I was simply saying that if we could take the last 4 or 5 years and repeat them over and over again, albeit with a conference crown thrown in there every now and then I would be pretty happy.  I figure any rational fan would be.

[Fuktard]

I don't understand why Frank doesn't bring in all 5 star players.  I mean WTF?  The 3 and 4 star guys just aren't good enough to win, duh!  We got lucky last year to make a deep run with scrubs...don't expect that every year, not with a guy that doesn't know how to coach. 

Summing up:  shitty players + piss poor coaching = lucky ass elite 8 run last year, over ranked 9-2 team this year with lucky wins over a handful of marginal teams, zero hope for any future success.

[MakeItRain]

I see us being like 08-09 next year.  Should be a 7 to 9 win league team, likely on the bubble. 

Our fan base has this attitude that if you're not a NC contender then you're going to suck.  I guess its a by-product of having KU down the road that makes us feel so inferior.  There is no reason that this program can't be a Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, Texas type program.  There is no doubt that we are already a top 20 program today, you think any of the other fan bases of top 20 programs think that the loss of two seniors will all of a sudden make them a 7-11 team?

This is the most important thing with our fanbase.  I'm not talking about "tards" or "non-tards," it infects everyone, myself included.

I posted a week or two ago that I would be pretty proud and happy if we could be, on average a fringe top 25 type team.  A program that averaged around 10-6 in conference and a 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

I was laughed at for the suggestion and told I had low expectations, etc. 

I was simply saying that if we could take the last 4 or 5 years and repeat them over and over again, albeit with a conference crown thrown in there every now and then I would be pretty happy.  I figure any rational fan would be.

The goal for most CBB fans should be for their team to be in the position to take home a major trophy, whether it be a conference regular season, conference tournament, or regional championship.  If you are a top 25 program all of those things are in play.  Until we rattle off a string of conference championships and final fours, I'm quite happy with being a consistent top 25 program.

[KITNfury]

I see us being like 08-09 next year.  Should be a 7 to 9 win league team, likely on the bubble. 

Our fan base has this attitude that if you're not a NC contender then you're going to suck.  I guess its a by-product of having KU down the road that makes us feel so inferior.  There is no reason that this program can't be a Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, Texas type program.  There is no doubt that we are already a top 20 program today, you think any of the other fan bases of top 20 programs think that the loss of two seniors will all of a sudden make them a 7-11 team?

This is the most important thing with our fanbase.  I'm not talking about "tards" or "non-tards," it infects everyone, myself included.

I posted a week or two ago that I would be pretty proud and happy if we could be, on average a fringe top 25 type team.  A program that averaged around 10-6 in conference and a 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

I was laughed at for the suggestion and told I had low expectations, etc. 

I was simply saying that if we could take the last 4 or 5 years and repeat them over and over again, albeit with a conference crown thrown in there every now and then I would be pretty happy.  I figure any rational fan would be.

The goal for most CBB fans should be for their team to be in the position to take home a major trophy, whether it be a conference regular season, conference tournament, or regional championship.  If you are a top 25 program all of those things are in play.  Until we rattle off a string of conference championships and final fours, I'm quite happy with being a consistent top 25 program.

I see a major difference between being a consistent top 25 team and "average a fringe top 25 type team".

[kso_FAN]

  

Where did I say we would suck?

.500 in this league will not be bad, especially with no north/south split (i should have said 8-10 wins). I'll take a bubble team next year and go from there.

[W.Churchill]

Expecting to be a consistent top twenty five team for KSU is totally unrealistic.  The numbers just don't work.
There are more than a dozen schools who are basketball royalty [national championships, numerous final fours over an extended period including recent memory]
UCLA, Duke, NC, Kentucky, Indiana, KU, MSU, Louisville, Georgetown, UConn, Syracuse, Arizona, NC State,
These schools should expect to almost ALWAYS be in the top twenty five.

Then there are schools with big budgets and located in talent rich areas or are glamorous locations:
tOSU, Michigan, USC, Stanford, Wake Forest, Texas, Florida, Purdue, LSU, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Pitt, Cal, Washington, Iowa, Illinois, Virginia, Mizzou, Tennessee, BYU [for their special recruiting base]

Those two categories contain more than 30 who should expect to be fringe top 25 every year.

Then there are the schools located in metro areas with lots of talent and some tradition:
Cincy, Temple, Villanova, St. John's, Memphis, Vandy, Pitt, Marquette, DePaul, LoyolaMarymount,
Those schools have a history of being in the top 25 at least semi-regularly

Then there are schools with no special tradition, but are located in talent rich areas:
BC, FSU, Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, SoCarolina, Penn State, Miami, etc. etc. 

Bottom line, there are at least fifty schools with more right to expect to be top 25 than KSU

KSU is lumped in with dozens of other schools with limited tradition, money and poor recruiting grounds.  This category includes most of the rest of the Big 12, SEC, Big 10,  Pac 10 not mentioned above

[CHONGS]

How are Alabama,  Auburn, Georgia, or Georgia Tech in a talent rich areas?  If they are then why not the whole SEC?

[CNS]

Expecting to be a consistent top twenty five team for KSU is totally unrealistic.  The numbers just don't work.
There are more than a dozen schools who are basketball royalty [national championships, numerous final fours over an extended period including recent memory]
UCLA, Duke, NC, Kentucky, Indiana, KU, MSU, Louisville, Georgetown, UConn, Syracuse, Arizona, NC State,
These schools should expect to almost ALWAYS be in the top twenty five.

Then there are schools with big budgets and located in talent rich areas or are glamorous locations:
tOSU, Michigan, USC, Stanford, Wake Forest, Texas, Florida, Purdue, LSU, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Pitt, Cal, Washington, Iowa, Illinois, Virginia, Mizzou, Tennessee, BYU [for their special recruiting base]

Those two categories contain more than 30 who should expect to be fringe top 25 every year.

Then there are the schools located in metro areas with lots of talent and some tradition:
Cincy, Temple, Villanova, St. John's, Memphis, Vandy, Pitt, Marquette, DePaul, LoyolaMarymount,
Those schools have a history of being in the top 25 at least semi-regularly

Then there are schools with no special tradition, but are located in talent rich areas:
BC, FSU, Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, SoCarolina, Penn State, Miami, etc. etc. 

Bottom line, there are at least fifty schools with more right to expect to be top 25 than KSU

KSU is lumped in with dozens of other schools with limited tradition, money and poor recruiting grounds.  This category includes most of the rest of the Big 12, SEC, Big 10,  Pac 10 not mentioned above

Your posts are coming from a Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) rich area.

[GetVocalwithCurt]

limited tradition? Are you serious? We are a all-time top 30 basketball program. Wow.

[OregonSmock]

How are Alabama,  Auburn, Georgia, or Georgia Tech in a talent rich areas?  If they are then why not the whole SEC?

Lots of talent in the South, especially Atlanta, GA. 

[MakeItRain]

I see us being like 08-09 next year.  Should be a 7 to 9 win league team, likely on the bubble. 

Our fan base has this attitude that if you're not a NC contender then you're going to suck.  I guess its a by-product of having KU down the road that makes us feel so inferior.  There is no reason that this program can't be a Pitt, Villanova, Louisville, Texas type program.  There is no doubt that we are already a top 20 program today, you think any of the other fan bases of top 20 programs think that the loss of two seniors will all of a sudden make them a 7-11 team?

This is the most important thing with our fanbase.  I'm not talking about "tards" or "non-tards," it infects everyone, myself included.

I posted a week or two ago that I would be pretty proud and happy if we could be, on average a fringe top 25 type team.  A program that averaged around 10-6 in conference and a 7 or 8 seed in the NCAA tournament. 

I was laughed at for the suggestion and told I had low expectations, etc. 

I was simply saying that if we could take the last 4 or 5 years and repeat them over and over again, albeit with a conference crown thrown in there every now and then I would be pretty happy.  I figure any rational fan would be.

The goal for most CBB fans should be for their team to be in the position to take home a major trophy, whether it be a conference regular season, conference tournament, or regional championship.  If you are a top 25 program all of those things are in play.  Until we rattle off a string of conference championships and final fours, I'm quite happy with being a consistent top 25 program.

I see a major difference between being a consistent top 25 team and "average a fringe top 25 type team".

no crap

[MakeItRain]

Expecting to be a consistent top twenty five team for KSU is totally unrealistic.  The numbers just don't work.
There are more than a dozen schools who are basketball royalty [national championships, numerous final fours over an extended period including recent memory]
UCLA, Duke, NC, Kentucky, Indiana, KU, MSU, Louisville, Georgetown, UConn, Syracuse, Arizona, NC State,
These schools should expect to almost ALWAYS be in the top twenty five.

Then there are schools with big budgets and located in talent rich areas or are glamorous locations:
tOSU, Michigan, USC, Stanford, Wake Forest, Texas, Florida, Purdue, LSU, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Pitt, Cal, Washington, Iowa, Illinois, Virginia, Mizzou, Tennessee, BYU [for their special recruiting base]

Those two categories contain more than 30 who should expect to be fringe top 25 every year.

Then there are the schools located in metro areas with lots of talent and some tradition:
Cincy, Temple, Villanova, St. John's, Memphis, Vandy, Pitt, Marquette, DePaul, LoyolaMarymount,
Those schools have a history of being in the top 25 at least semi-regularly

Then there are schools with no special tradition, but are located in talent rich areas:
BC, FSU, Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, SoCarolina, Penn State, Miami, etc. etc. 

Bottom line, there are at least fifty schools with more right to expect to be top 25 than KSU

KSU is lumped in with dozens of other schools with limited tradition, money and poor recruiting grounds.  This category includes most of the rest of the Big 12, SEC, Big 10,  Pac 10 not mentioned above

So if a team wins a national championship they get to be a top 25 program forever?  Indiana, Arizona, North Carolina St?  Get the eff outta here, go back to the phog with that bs.  Also who gives two shits about recruiting areas?  College basketball recruiting has been national since the 50's.  KSU being a top 25 program would have no reason to effect KU winning the national championship every 20 years or so while on probation, no need for the night terrors, Winston.

[nicname]

I see a major difference between being a consistent top 25 team and "average a fringe top 25 type team".

KSU under Frank Martin is, on average, the #23 ranked team by kenpom.  The Cats' regular season averages are 22-9 (10-6).  We have a #2 seed, a #11 seed, an NIT season, and what looks to be a fringe top 25, 6 seed type season this year.  This season being pure speculation.

The key is having consistency as a program.  There will be years where we are overrated.  There will be years where the Cats surprise and exceed expectations.  There will be years where we are rebuilding and are relegated to the NIT.  There will also be years similar to last season where we are a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

Eventually some of those 2009-10 type seasons will earn some conference titles, or conference tournament titles.  Eventually some of those 2009-10 type seasons will get us into the Final Four and maybe to a national title.  There will also be seasons where we perform well in the regular season only to be ousted early in the tournament, and "choke." There will also be seasons where we struggle some in the regular season but put it together for a nice tournament run.  

I dunno I guess I am out of touch.

Louisville, under Pitino, averages #18 kenpom, 22-8 (11-5) in conference, #7 seed in NCAA.  These averages don't include 2001-02 in which L'vill wen 19-13 (8-8) and was in the NIT.  I left them out because it was before kenpom.  I guess that type of program is low expectations.  

[nicname]

Expecting to be a consistent top twenty five team for KSU is totally unrealistic.  The numbers just don't work.
There are more than a dozen schools who are basketball royalty [national championships, numerous final fours over an extended period including recent memory]
UCLA, Duke, NC, Kentucky, Indiana, KU, MSU, Louisville, Georgetown, UConn, Syracuse, Arizona, NC State,
These schools should expect to almost ALWAYS be in the top twenty five.

Then there are schools with big budgets and located in talent rich areas or are glamorous locations:
tOSU, Michigan, USC, Stanford, Wake Forest, Texas, Florida, Purdue, LSU, Georgia Tech, Georgia, Pitt, Cal, Washington, Iowa, Illinois, Virginia, Mizzou, Tennessee, BYU [for their special recruiting base]

Those two categories contain more than 30 who should expect to be fringe top 25 every year.

Then there are the schools located in metro areas with lots of talent and some tradition:
Cincy, Temple, Villanova, St. John's, Memphis, Vandy, Pitt, Marquette, DePaul, LoyolaMarymount,
Those schools have a history of being in the top 25 at least semi-regularly

Then there are schools with no special tradition, but are located in talent rich areas:
BC, FSU, Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, SoCarolina, Penn State, Miami, etc. etc. 

Bottom line, there are at least fifty schools with more right to expect to be top 25 than KSU

KSU is lumped in with dozens of other schools with limited tradition, money and poor recruiting grounds.  This category includes most of the rest of the Big 12, SEC, Big 10,  Pac 10 not mentioned above

This argument makes much more sense for football than basketball.

[sys]

KSU under Frank Martin is, on average, the #23 ranked team by kenpom.  The Cats' regular season averages are 22-9 (10-6).  We have a #2 seed, a #11 seed, an NIT season, and what looks to be a fringe top 25, 6 seed type season this year.  This season being pure speculation.

The key is having consistency as a program.  There will be years where we are overrated.  There will be years where the Cats surprise and exceed expectations.  There will be years where we are rebuilding and are relegated to the NIT.  There will also be years similar to last season where we are a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

Eventually some of those 2009-10 type seasons will earn some conference titles, or conference tournament titles.  Eventually some of those 2009-10 type seasons will get us into the Final Four and maybe to a national title.  There will also be seasons where we perform well in the regular season only to be ousted early in the tournament, and "choke." There will also be seasons where we struggle some in the regular season but put it together for a nice tournament run.  

I dunno I guess I am out of touch.

Louisville, under Pitino, averages #18 kenpom, 22-8 (11-5) in conference, #7 seed in NCAA.  These averages don't include 2001-02 in which L'vill wen 19-13 (8-8) and was in the NIT.  I left them out because it was before kenpom.  I guess that type of program is low expectations.  

good post, nicname.

[MakeItRain]

 

Where did I say we would suck?

.500 in this league will not be bad, especially with no north/south split (i should have said 8-10 wins). I'll take a bubble team next year and go from there.

So you weren't basing your win prediction on an 18 game schedule?  FWIW I think the whole stronger basketball conference with 10 teams (not revenue) is very overstated.  The best conference in the country has 16 teams, the worst has 10.  The Big 10 is a good conference but they have their dogs too.  Iowa State, OU and Tech aren't going anywhere.  The conference elites should go 6-0 against those three, even with Royce White.  Then there's question marks in Stillwater and College Station.  A good team should never be .500 in their conference, especially in a true round robin.

[MakeItRain]

I see a major difference between being a consistent top 25 team and "average a fringe top 25 type team".

KSU under Frank Martin is, on average, the #23 ranked team by kenpom.  The Cats' regular season averages are 22-9 (10-6).  We have a #2 seed, a #11 seed, an NIT season, and what looks to be a fringe top 25, 6 seed type season this year.  This season being pure speculation.

The key is having consistency as a program.  There will be years where we are overrated.  There will be years where the Cats surprise and exceed expectations.  There will be years where we are rebuilding and are relegated to the NIT.  There will also be years similar to last season where we are a high seed in the NCAA tournament.

Eventually some of those 2009-10 type seasons will earn some conference titles, or conference tournament titles.  Eventually some of those 2009-10 type seasons will get us into the Final Four and maybe to a national title.  There will also be seasons where we perform well in the regular season only to be ousted early in the tournament, and "choke." There will also be seasons where we struggle some in the regular season but put it together for a nice tournament run.  

I dunno I guess I am out of touch.

Louisville, under Pitino, averages #18 kenpom, 22-8 (11-5) in conference, #7 seed in NCAA.  These averages don't include 2001-02 in which L'vill wen 19-13 (8-8) and was in the NIT.  I left them out because it was before kenpom.  I guess that type of program is low expectations.  

Good breakdown, I was just going to ask him to name the 23-25 programs currently in better shape than K-State.

[kso_FAN]

Great post nicname, I agree completely.

I think we are likely a 10-8 league team next year, FWIW.  Yes there will be some dogs, but 6 of the 10 teams in the league are currently ranked. That's pretty darn good.

[nicname]

It would be interesting to see what the top 25 teams are durning the kenpom era, and what the averages are for teams in different rank ranges.

[catzacker]

imo, this idea of "i just want the program to be a top 25-ish" is fantasty because it's unsustainable.  the ying and the yang of "averaging" to be a top 25-ish type team will lead the fan base wanting more.  Louisville is mentioned....Pitino is on the hot seat for doing exactly what is being described/wanted.   we'll get there with frank within 3 years, especially if this seaon keeps going the way it looks like it will.  "just make it to a decent bowl game" is nice in theory, but, imo, will not work.  

[nicname]

imo, this idea of "i just want the program to be a top 25-ish" is fantasty because it's unsustainable.  the ying and the yang of "averaging" to be a top 25-ish type team will lead the fan base wanting more.  Louisville is mentioned....Pitino is on the hot seat for doing exactly what is being described/wanted.   we'll get there with frank within 3 years, especially if this seaon keeps going the way it looks like it will.  "just make it to a decent bowl game" is nice in theory, but, imo, will not work.  

Fanbases always want more.  It doesn't make success unsustainable.