Sports Betting Thread...

[cas4ksu]

Up +$20

will update

[DQ12]

Be careful with this csourk.  I definitely don't want you to end up like my uncle Marty.

[j rake]

Up +$20

will update

You will not be a winner over time betting $20/game.

[CrushNasty]

Up +$20

will update

You will not be a winner over time betting $20/game.

 

[j rake]

Up +$20

will update

You will not be a winner over time betting $20/game.

 

Which one of us are you laughing at? 

[cas4ksu]

No, no, no. I'm not betting $20 a game. I'm just currently up $20. ie: deposited $20 up to $40

[Trim]

Be careful with this csourk.  I definitely don't want you to end up like my uncle Marty.

I don't want him to end up like Havs' uncle.

[j rake]

No, no, no. I'm not betting $20 a game. I'm just currently up $20. ie: deposited $20 up to $40

OK, then let me rephrase: You will not win money by betting $1 or $3 or $5 per game. You will eventually get bored, bet bigger, then lose. Then you will redeposit $20 again. Then you will lose that. Then you will say, dammit, why don't I deposit ... $50. And you will lose that.

A year from now, after you've flushed away $500, you'll ask yourself: "Why didn't I just deposit that $500 at the beginning, collect a 20% bonus from a sports book and start with a bankroll that would have given me a chance at winning?"

Anyways, please post your plays before games so I can "follow you."

[CrushNasty]

Ok, I understand that scenario now, j rake.

I'd like to "follow" everyone's bets.  Got any for this weekend?

Honestly see some value in Loyola-Chi in +380. But try to stay away from any/all Khatz game, just as a preference (prob about 50% when betting on them though, so no real reason other than preference.)

Like to do 3 team teasers in NFL usually.  Bet NBA straight up, college football (underdog) money lines quite a bit, but a little of everything.

[j rake]

Ok, I understand that scenario now, j rake.

I'd like to "follow" everyone's bets.  Got any for this weekend?

Honestly see some value in Loyola-Chi in +380. But try to stay away from any/all Khatz game, just as a preference (prob about 50% when betting on them though, so no real reason other than preference.)

Like to do 3 team teasers in NFL usually.  Bet NBA straight up, college football (underdog) money lines quite a bit, but a little of everything.

Easiest way to win in college hoops is to find nationally televised games and fade the public.

You will win 57% of the time over the last five years.

[CrushNasty]

I usually don't look at (somewhat) crazy trends like that; so a few questions...
Just talking ESPN/CBS games, and where do you check the public?
I mean on sportsbook.com I can see what their bettors doing, but can this be considered the "public"?

[j rake]

I usually don't look at (somewhat) crazy trends like that; so a few questions...
Just talking ESPN/CBS games, and where do you check the public?
I mean on sportsbook.com I can see what their bettors doing, but can this be considered the "public"?

Best places to get public info are covers.com and sportsbookspy.com. I used to not believe the numbers at SBS, but they are legit. The difference between Covers and SBS is that the Covers numbers are not actual bets placed — they are the teams people pick in contests at the site. SBS, meanwhile, are actual bets placed at actual online sports books. So, in all reality, if you want to see the teams people are putting their money on, your best bet is Sportsbook Spy.

The idea behind the national games theory (ESPN, ESPN2, CBS, etc.) is that those lines are the tightest, most scrutinized lines Vegas will put out. They become coin flips, and generally speaking, the public stinks at making those types of calls.

There's lots of value in the mid-major conference games.

[j rake]

Just for the hell of it, I'll start posting my college basketball plays.
Here is a system I've yet to actually wager any money on this year, but will do so starting today.

Here's how it works:

—I ask my idiot friend, Josh, the worst sports bettor I know, to pick the winners of all the national TV games.
—Then, I take the opposite ("fade") his plays. If the public agrees with him at a rate of 65% or more, it's a bigger play.

His picks for today:

—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State

The public is all over Tennessee, 72-28, so bet Pitt bigger.
The public is on Kansas, 92-8, so bet Colorado St bigger.

[cas4ksu]

Put all of my $46.72 on the  ML (-450)

Stupid, yes. Should I win, yes.

[CrushNasty]

Just for the hell of it, I'll start posting my college basketball plays.
Here is a system I've yet to actually wager any money on this year, but will do so starting today.

Here's how it works:

—I ask my idiot friend, Josh, the worst sports bettor I know, to pick the winners of all the national TV games.
—Then, I take the opposite ("fade") his plays. If the public agrees with him at a rate of 65% or more, it's a bigger play.

His picks for today:

—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State

The public is all over Tennessee, 72-28, so bet Pitt bigger.
The public is on Kansas, 92-8, so bet Colorado St bigger.

I understand the system, but for the "public" do you just use what your sportsbook site has listed, or is there a better place to judge the "public"

[j rake]

I understand the system, but for the "public" do you just use what your sportsbook site has listed, or is there a better place to judge the "public"

Ignore the numbers your sports book gives you. They aren't accurate and are there to mislead you. Just use www.sportsbookspy.com.

Here's what it looks like, and an example of the type of things you should look for:

[j rake]

Text from friend, the terrible sports bettor: "I'm sooooo good."

 

[j rake]

His picks for today:

—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State

He's 4-0 w/ the KU game in progress.

I wonder if he gave me the opposite of his picks. 

[CrushNasty]

His picks for today:

—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State

He's 4-0 w/ the KU game in progress.

I wonder if he gave me the opposite of his picks. 

Which is why I don't like trends, or strictly going opposite of what someone else is picking.... Seems to take my knowledge completely out of the equation.

But at least you did hit one of your big bets.

[j rake]

Put all of my $46.72 on the  ML (-450)

Stupid, yes. Should I win, yes.

Nice one.

 

[j rake]

His picks for today:

—Wisconsin +1 over Marquette
—Tennessee +8 over Pittsburgh
—Kentucky -14 over Indiana
—Texas A&M pk over Washington
—Kansas -21 over Colorado State

He's 4-0 w/ the KU game in progress.

I wonder if he gave me the opposite of his picks. 

Which is why I don't like trends, or strictly going opposite of what someone else is picking.... Seems to take my knowledge completely out of the equation.

But at least you did hit one of your big bets.

Can we wait until the sample size is larger than four games before we call this a failure? 

Also, the KU game wasn't a win. It was a push, although the line did close at -21.5.

"Fade the idiot" season record: 0-4-1, -5.5 units.

[prome05]

BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!

[j rake]

BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!

 

[cas4ksu]

BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!

 

I'm in on this one.

[prome05]

BOISE STATE -4.5 at Drake!

SMH!