9 runs is a lot, i think it should be pretty hard. but what i like about the being thrown out at first thing is that you could force the defense to choose between recording outs at first or letting other runners advance.
i guess it'd pretty much always pay to make the play at first (maybe not on some plays from left?), but if there was some ability of the scoring runner to fake as if he was going to first before committing completely . . .