The Royals

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

seats are section 151.

aww snap

[pissclams]

pretty sure that jeremy guthrie's family sits in section 151

[mocat]

pretty sure that jeremy guthrie's family sits in section 151

applejack better stay away from guthrie's family

[TownieCat]

Royals will win and Twins will lose tonight.

[pissclams]

pretty sure that jeremy guthrie's family sits in section 151

applejack better stay away from guthrie's family

why?  his kids would probably kick applejack's ass  


^adorablol

[AppleJack]

I would knock the ice cream cones out of each kids hands if I see them tomorrow. Maybe shove mom to the ground.

[mocat]

the littlest kid with the mask looks like a humongous stud muffin

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

what's that, little guthrie? you cant hear applejack?

[SdK]

Thanks for the backup, mathcat.

[sys]

where are you getting those stats?

baseball prospectus, fwar.  2012 is not included because that was before the royals signed him to the free agent contract that will pay him 23.2 million dollars to pitch for 2013-2015.  if you use rwar, he gets 2.2 - 1.9 = -.3.  little better.

you're right that the value of that contract is heavily influenced by how bad he has been this year.  if he'd have continued to pitch another 1.1 war year in 2015, he'd have provided more or less fair value (not good value) for the life of his contract.  however, he has not.  as a result, and with the benefit of hindsight, signing him to a 3 year deal has to be viewed as a mistake.

[Cartierfor3]

what's that, little guthrie? you cant hear applejack?

he wears his baseball uniform around the house?

[star seed 7]

You wear a different person's uniform around the house

[8manpick]

where are you getting those stats?

baseball prospectus, fwar.  2012 is not included because that was before the royals signed him to the free agent contract that will pay him 23.2 million dollars to pitch for 2013-2015.  if you use rwar, he gets 2.2 - 1.9 = -.3.  little better.

you're right that the value of that contract is heavily influenced by how bad he has been this year.  if he'd have continued to pitch another 1.1 war year in 2015, he'd have provided more or less fair value (not good value) for the life of his contract.  however, he has not.  as a result, and with the benefit of hindsight, signing him to a 3 year deal has to be viewed as a mistake.

WAR does a bad job of measuring the positive impact that an innings eating pitcher has on the games in which he does not pitch.

[420seriouscat69]

You wear a different person's uniform around the house

Oh, snap!

[Cartierfor3]

You wear a different person's uniform around the house

not tucked in with baseball pants

[Cartierfor3]

For the record, I think Guthrie benefited greatly from being a Royal, and the Royals benefited from him too. Both sides won the contract. We have to remember how bad Royals starting pitching was in 2012. He brought stability and the consistency to pitch keeping his team in games (the record on games he started is a fluke, but it shows he didn't get rocked much until this year) and eat innings. 200 IP in 2013 and 2014 allowed the bullpen's development, and made Hoch and Davis moving to the pen possible.

You're almost never going to sign a player over 30 for a deal longer than 2 years and get value out of the end of the deal. Like mocat said, its how contracts work.

[Cartierfor3]

posnanski has a good article on baseball contracts, and Matt Harvey:

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/why-matt-harvey-mets-dispute-innings-total/

Here, in very, very general terms, is how baseball pitchers’ careers go: They generally peak at about age 27, stay pretty close to their peak for three or four years, start to decline, slowly at first, and then they begin a steady and sometimes precipitous fall. This means that a pitcher’s prime years will generally be between ages 26 and 30. This is also true for everyday players.

So here’s what happens:

— Young baseball players are some of the most underpaid people in American professional sports.

— Old baseball players are some of the most overpaid people in American professional sports.

[sys]

WAR does a bad job of measuring the positive impact that an innings eating pitcher has on the games in which he does not pitch.

i think that's probably true.  but value has to be measured in terms of what else you could have done with the money.  does anyone think that the royals couldn't have done at least as well by signing 8 joe blantons to minor league deals every spring and calling up the best of them as needed?


in general, i don't think you tend to make out very well by signing near replacement level players to long-term deals.

[sys]

— Young baseball players are some of the most underpaid people in American professional sports.

— Old baseball players are some of the most overpaid people in American professional sports.

yeah, baseball salaries are really weird.  it's like, not at all a meritocracy, like you find in most sports.  the most equitable thing about it is that really good players tend to get to the majors faster than less good players.  but late bloomers, like cain, and maybe to a lesser extent orlando, get completely mumped.

[mocat]

and then you have Sal Perez's contract 

[8manpick]

WAR does a bad job of measuring the positive impact that an innings eating pitcher has on the games in which he does not pitch.

i think that's probably true.  but value has to be measured in terms of what else you could have done with the money.  does anyone think that the royals couldn't have done at least as well by signing 8 joe blantons to minor league deals every spring and calling up the best of them as needed?


in general, i don't think you tend to make out very well by signing near replacement level players to long-term deals.

No doubt, Guts wasn't all that effective, but no way 8 Joe Blantons are pitching 400+ innings in 2013-'14. Look at these names!

[mocat]

Max Scherzer 

[sys]

8 joe blantons would only need to pitch 50 innings each.

[TownieCat]

— Young baseball players are some of the most underpaid people in American professional sports.

— Old baseball players are some of the most overpaid people in American professional sports.

yeah, baseball salaries are really weird.  it's like, not at all a meritocracy, like you find in most sports.  the most equitable thing about it is that really good players tend to get to the majors faster than less good players.  but late bloomers, like cain, and maybe to a lesser extent orlando, get completely mumped.

You aren't very well schooled in pro sports contracts. It's very common in the NBA and NFL for vets to be wildly overpaid while younger good players make much less than they're worth.

[pissclams]

— Young baseball players are some of the most underpaid people in American professional sports.

— Old baseball players are some of the most overpaid people in American professional sports.

yeah, baseball salaries are really weird.  it's like, not at all a meritocracy, like you find in most sports.  the most equitable thing about it is that really good players tend to get to the majors faster than less good players.  but late bloomers, like cain, and maybe to a lesser extent orlando, get completely mumped.

You aren't very well schooled in pro sports contracts. It's very common in the NBA and NFL for vets to be wildly overpaid while younger good players make much less than they're worth.

if they had this for bbs'rs, i'd be getting paid FOR eff SAKE