luke winn

[EllToPay]

But again, why the drop?

who cares?  this isn't kenpom.  he's just the most interesting mainstream (maybe allstream) bball writer working right now.

so the most interesting mainstream writer cites the terrible FT% as our biggest concern, and it's not discussed? considering that FT% is frowned upon around here as a dumb topic?

interesting.

Not interesting at all.  Everyone knitters that ft's are a problem at this point.  The percentage is far away from an acceptable deviance of the ncaa average.  Most importantly attempts and makes are way down.  I wouldn't care that we are shooting 50% if there were 50 attempts a game.

yeah, i agree. but winn isn't talking about attempts, he's talking strictly %. if we get to the line 25+ times a game, i don't give a crap what our % is, we'll win. but he's harping on the %, which everyone here hates, and yet we're still bowing down to him.

[MakeItRain]

But again, why the drop?

who cares?  this isn't kenpom.  he's just the most interesting mainstream (maybe allstream) bball writer working right now.

so the most interesting mainstream writer cites the terrible FT% as our biggest concern, and it's not discussed? considering that FT% is frowned upon around here as a dumb topic?

interesting.

Not interesting at all.  Everyone knitters that ft's are a problem at this point.  The percentage is far away from an acceptable deviance of the ncaa average.  Most importantly attempts and makes are way down.  I wouldn't care that we are shooting 50% if there were 50 attempts a game.

yeah, i agree. but winn isn't talking about attempts, he's talking strictly %. if we get to the line 25+ times a game, i don't give a crap what our % is, we'll win. but he's harping on the %, which everyone here hates, and yet we're still bowing down to him.

I'm guessing he sees this issue like we do since he never mentioned it last season.

BTW KSU is 66th in attempts per game & 241st in makes per game.  Last year first in both.

[EllToPay]

BTW KSU is 66th in attempts per game & 241st in makes per game.  Last year first in both.

This would have been a much better talking point. Far more important than %.

[EllToPay]

The more important question is why aren't we getting to the line as much as last year? DenClems was did not shoot that many FT's, if I remember correctly.

Seems like Pullen isn't getting there as much. The inconsistent big man line up might be a reason...

_Fan?

[gatoveintisiete]

50% fg = a hair over 1 pt. per possession, the hair coming from some 3pters mixed in

70% ft, half two shot fouls, half one and ones= 1.4 plus .7 plus .49 or 2.59 divided by 2 equals 1.24 pts per posession.

60% would be 1 .08 pts per possession

50% would be .87 pts per

If this analysis is accurate, obviously it must be vetted, but if it is correct then shooting less than 60% from the line would be less productive than not getting fouled

[kso_FAN]

50% fg = a hair over 1 pt. per possession, the hair coming from some 3pters mixed in

70% ft, half two shot fouls, half one and ones= 1.4 plus .7 or 2.1 divided by 2 equals 1.05 pts per posession.

60% would be .9 pts per possession

50% would be .75 pts per

If this analysis is accurate, obviously it must be vetted, but if it is correct then shooting less than 70% from the line would be less productive than getting fouled

Good stats.  62-65% would be just fine.  Between .9 and 1.0 PPP from the line is fine, as long as we are getting around 50% FTrate like last year.

As far as Pullen, he's not far off on drawing fouls from last year; 6.1 fouls drawn per 40 this year compared to 6.5 last year.  Kelly is the same at 6.0.  Biggest drop so far is probably Samuels, from 7.1 to 6.1, but I think that will increase as he gets more consistent minutes.

[sys]

70% ft, half two shot fouls, half one and ones= 1.4 plus .7 plus .49 or 2.59 divided by 2 equals 1.24 pts per posession.

this is wrong.  wrong twice, actually.

1)  ratio of two shot fouls to one and ones is too low.  you can have a max of 3 one and ones in a half, in reality, since many fouls are committed on shot attempts, and some fouls are non shooting (player control), you usually have less.  i don't know the %s of each, but i'd guess the average is between 1 and 2 one and ones per half.  probably closer to 2.  i'll use 2 in the calcs below.

on the other hand, the number of 2 shot fouls is unlimited.  for kstate, let's use _fan's 25 fta/game number (last year kstate had 29 fta/game), that translates to about 22 ftas from two shot fouls and approx 3 from one and ones.

2) your calcs assume that they miss the front of all one and ones.  obviously that doesn't happen.  at 70%, there should be 1.7 ftas per one and one.  1.19 points per one and one.


with a ratio of 2:11 (from 25 fta/game), you get 1.37 pts per possession resulting in free throws @ 70%

1.16 pts/poss @ 60%

0.96 pts/poss @ 50%



it is also relevant to mention that essentially no one shoots 50% fg, even 50% efg (weighting 3 point shots) is significantly better than average.  and almost no team will shoot below 60% on fts.  essentially, even teams that shoot really well from the field and really poorly from the line, obtain more points/poss on free throws than on non-ft possessions.

[sys]

ah, i see you had corrected your calcs, and like a dumbass i just read the uncorrected calcs and quoted the corrected ones.  sorry.


the ratio point is still relevant.

[gatoveintisiete]

70% ft, half two shot fouls, half one and ones= 1.4 plus .7 plus .49 or 2.59 divided by 2 equals 1.24 pts per posession.

this is wrong.  wrong twice, actually.

1)  ratio of two shot fouls to one and ones is too low.  you can have a max of 3 one and ones in a half, in reality, since many fouls are committed on shot attempts, and some fouls are non shooting (player control), you usually have less.  i don't know the %s of each, but i'd guess the average is between 1 and 2 one and ones per half.  probably closer to 2.  i'll use 2 in the calcs below.

on the other hand, the number of 2 shot fouls is unlimited.  for kstate, let's use _fan's 25 fta/game number (last year kstate had 29 fta/game), that translates to about 22 ftas from two shot fouls and approx 3 from one and ones.

2) your calcs assume that they miss the front of all one and ones.  obviously that doesn't happen.  at 70%, there should be 1.7 ftas per one and one.  1.19 points per one and one.


with a ratio of 2:11 (from 25 fta/game), you get 1.37 pts per possession resulting in free throws @ 70%

1.16 pts/poss @ 60%

0.96 pts/poss @ 50%



it is also relevant to mention that essentially no one shoots 50% fg, even 50% efg (weighting 3 point shots) is significantly better than average.  and almost no team will shoot below 60% on fts.  essentially, even teams that shoot really well from the field and really poorly from the line, obtain more points/poss on free throws than on non-ft possessions.

That is a good point about the one and ones, never thought about how insignificant missing the front end was before, always seemed like a huge missed opportunity while watching a game.

As far as the calc for points per poss. on a one and one, I believe it would be % times first shot plus % times% times 2nd shot, so for a 60% shooter .6 plus .36 for .96 per poss         

[sys]

That is a good point about the one and ones, never thought about how insignificant missing the front end was before, always seemed like a huge missed opportunity while watching a game.

well, it is a huge missed opportunity.  statistically, it just shouldn't happen that often per game.

for a 60% shooter .6 plus .36 for .96 per poss         

yeah, that's what i used too.

[slimz]

Looks like Fts so far are almost "death by a thousand paper cuts." Kelly, Judge, Asprilla,  JHR, and Irving have been horrid, although they've each taken significantly fewer than Pullen and Samuels (but when combined, it's significant).  You'd think Kelly, Judge, and Irving would improve, and you would hope McGruder will, too. Looks like Asprilla and JHR aren't going to be on the court together that much, so our overall team effort should climb from this point.

[kso_FAN]

Fran agrees with Winn: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=5919061

Kansas State

What I like about the Wildcats: Their intensity

The Cats won't always look like a basketball masterpiece, but they will battle you on both ends of the court. They crash both backboards and defend every inch of the floor, including at the rim. Coach Frank Martin and point guard Jacob Pullen are joined at the hip when it comes to competing, and this rubs off on everyone in purple.

What I don't like about the Wildcats: Free throw shooting

Give K-State credit for getting fouled a lot. The team is shooting almost 26 free throws a game. The bad news is that the Wildcats are shooting a woeful 54 percent from the charity stripe. That is likely to cost them a big game or two on the road to the NCAA tournament.

He has the Cats in his "Next Tier" (10 teams), below his "Elite Tier" (top 6)

[michigancat]

we really don't play all that hard this year.

[wetwillie]

Fran agrees with Winn: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog?name=ncbexperts&id=5919061

Kansas State

What I like about the Wildcats: Their intensity

The Cats won't always look like a basketball masterpiece, but they will battle you on both ends of the court. They crash both backboards and defend every inch of the floor, including at the rim. Coach Frank Martin and point guard Jacob Pullen are joined at the hip when it comes to competing, and this rubs off on everyone in purple.

What I don't like about the Wildcats: Free throw shootingGive K-State credit for getting fouled a lot. The team is shooting almost 26 free throws a game. The bad news is that the Wildcats are shooting a woeful 54 percent from the charity stripe. That is likely to cost them a big game or two on the road to the NCAA tournament.

He has the Cats in his "Next Tier" (10 teams), below his "Elite Tier" (top 6)

 

[kso_FAN]

we really don't play all that hard this year.

I think we still play hard, last year we just played ridiculously hard, so the standard is high.

[Kat Kid]

we really don't play all that hard this year.

I think we still play hard, last year we just played ridiculously hard, so the standard is high.

Denis made us look scrappier too.

[Clevey 2 Times]

But again, why the drop?

who cares?  this isn't kenpom.  he's just the most interesting mainstream (maybe allstream) bball writer working right now.

You know what was kenpom?  This gloriously awkward exchange:

I asked the Jayhawks' Markieff Morris, "You're leading the nation in defensive rebounding -- can you explain why you've been so good at it this season?"

His response: "I'm leading the nation in defensive rebounding?"

"Not in raw numbers, but percentage-wise, yeah. You're getting like 36 percent." (It was actually 36.6, but saying that, and getting into a kenpom.com discussion, didn't seem like a good idea at the time.)

"In actual numbers, probably not -- I'm only playing 20 minutes a game."

"Anyway, is there any kind of technique to it, or philosophy of getting boards?"

"I've got quick twitches, you know? Once the ball goes up, I just find out where it's coming off. Most of the time, I don't even block out. Because I've got a knack for just going and getting it. Most of the time I just outsmart them -- go around them, fight around them, things like that."

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/09/power.rankings/index.html#ixzz17f6kqOBY

Funny when mildly Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) uk player says he uses his smarts to get rebounds. Here's to Freddy pounding Markieff when he attempts his cunning, non-box out method of rebounding.

Speaking of Freddy, part of the reason he shot so many FT's for FIU probably due to talent level of his opponents. Most starting big men in the Big 12 will be able to defend him well enough to not foul. Although Freddy will still get some people on his pump fake.

[sys]

we really don't play all that hard this year.

I think we still play hard, last year we just played ridiculously hard, so the standard is high.

let's split the difference.  the 2010-11 kstate team plays about as hard as most other teams.

[pissclams]

we really don't play all that hard this year.

I think we still play hard, last year we just played ridiculously hard, so the standard is high.

let's split the difference.  the 2010-11 kstate team plays about as hard as most other teams.

so weird but so true.  hard to believe that all of frank's sideline antics and sitting out of players hasn't made them work harder than crap.

[sys]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/16/power.rankings/index.html


focus on the words to the right, not the numbers to the left.

[WillieWatanabe]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/16/power.rankings/index.html


focus on the words to the right, not the numbers to the left.

wow surprised we didn't drop outta the top 20.

[FHSU92]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/16/power.rankings/index.html


focus on the words to the right, not the numbers to the left.

Is he making fun of Pitt's offense??!!??  cus it's kinda like ours 

[wetwillie]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/16/power.rankings/index.html


focus on the words to the right, not the numbers to the left.

"Now excuse for a sec while I violate"

That was the launching-off point for Wildcats guard Jacob Pullen's rant about fickle K-State fans on Dec. 12, following the team's narrow win over Loyola in his hometown of Chicago. After thanking the team's real fans and promising things would get better, Pullen wrote:

"To all the fake fans that just jump on and off the bandwagon who think we suck go cheer for somebody down the road then" (sic) ... then ... "And all the idiots that right on messages boards that say this team suck please just stop watching us FYI we have Internet to we read also" (sic).

I think we can all agree that the Wildcats are suffering through some offensive frustration this season, and that includes Pullen, whose scoring average has dropped from 19.3 last season to 16.3 in '10-11. He's in a bit of a cold spell from long range, making just a third of his attempts, but the main concern involves his free-throw rate. He should, theoretically, be drawing more fouls this year due to the fact that the ball is in his hands more often. But his free-throw rate has dropped about eight percent from last season (from 51.5% to 43.0%) -- and that almost mirrors the team's overall drop from '09-10 to the present (from 50.3% to 43.0%). The team's shooting woes should correct themselves over time, but the Wildcats' offense won't truly improve unless Pullen gets into full-attack mode off the dribble and elicits more whistles.



Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/luke_winn/12/16/power.rankings/index.html#ixzz18JCNU35g

[Pete]

That was the launching-off point for Wildcats guard Jacob Pullen's rant about fickle K-State fans on Dec. 12, following the team's narrow win over Loyola in his hometown of Chicago. After thanking the team's real fans and promising things would get better, Pullen wrote:

"To all the fake fans that just jump on and off the bandwagon who think we suck go cheer for somebody down the road then" (sic) ... then ... "And all the idiots that right on messages boards that say this team suck please just stop watching us FYI we have Internet to we read also" (sic).

See, we told you guys that the love this board.

[WillieWatanabe]

apparently has a great job.

http://www.facebook.com/note.php?created&&note_id=181511095224125&id=112580212107733