Question for Vegas experts

[slimz]

Seeing the spread at 12 and O/U at 52.  Can one break this down to an expected score of 32-20?  Because this would surprise me.  When I saw the spread at 12, I figured they must expect Nebraska to win something like a 18-6 ballgame, where we just don't do anything at all on offense.

With 2 running teams, and Snyder's penchant for milking the clock, that just seems to be a big O/U.

[ew2x4]

Vegas lines do not come from predicted scores. I'd say it's a tad high on the o/u, but far from a sure bet.

[kcchiefdav]

We are averaging a little over 30 pts per game. Nebraska is averaging 40 pts. So the line actually is lower than you'd expect. 52 pts is only 7.5 TDs. I personally wouldn't be surprised if both teams made it into the 20s or higher in this game.

[slimz]

OK, thanks for the info. Just wondering if the two were related or not.

[smith1051]

Actually slimz you are right.  Right now the team totals are sitting at 31 and 20

[06wildcat]

Seeing the spread at 12 and O/U at 52.  Can one break this down to an expected score of 32-20?  Because this would surprise me.  When I saw the spread at 12, I figured they must expect Nebraska to win something like a 18-6 ballgame, where we just don't do anything at all on offense.

With 2 running teams, and Snyder's penchant for milking the clock, that just seems to be a big O/U.

No expert but the total seems high. I think this could easily be a 28-13 or 35-17 type game though.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Vegas lines do not come from predicted scores. I'd say it's a tad high on the o/u, but far from a sure bet.

You could've deleted this, and saved yourself quite a bit of embarrassment.  But, I quoted it to make it easier to respond to this idiocy...

While I suppose you're "technically" right in that they don't "predict a score" and then throw a line out there based on that prediction.  However, anybody that has passed Jr. High algebra can pretty quickly figure out what their computer model has predicted as a final score.

The "total" or "over/under" was determined DAYS before it was offered for wagering.  In this instance, 52...  So, with an opening line of NU -10, simple math says that the LVSC computer model sees this as a 31-21 game.

HTH.

 

[Kat Kid]

Oct 07 07:45 PM EST  -  Football NCAA - 306 Kansas State Wildcats +19½ for Game      
Oct 09 03:30 PM EST  -  Football NCAA - 373 Texas A&M Aggies +13½ for Game    
Football 6 pt Teaser    90.00    81.82

[06wildcat]

Vegas lines do not come from predicted scores. I'd say it's a tad high on the o/u, but far from a sure bet.

You could've deleted this, and saved yourself quite a bit of embarrassment.  But, I quoted it to make it easier to respond to this idiocy...

While I suppose you're "technically" right in that they don't "predict a score" and then throw a line out there based on that prediction.  However, anybody that has passed Jr. High algebra can pretty quickly figure out what their computer model has predicted as a final score.

The "total" or "over/under" was determined DAYS before it was offered for wagering.  In this instance, 52...  So, with an opening line of NU -10, simple math says that the LVSC computer model sees this as a 31-21 game.

HTH.

 

 

[ew2x4]

Vegas lines do not come from predicted scores. I'd say it's a tad high on the o/u, but far from a sure bet.

You could've deleted this, and saved yourself quite a bit of embarrassment.  But, I quoted it to make it easier to respond to this idiocy...

While I suppose you're "technically" right in that they don't "predict a score" and then throw a line out there based on that prediction.  However, anybody that has passed Jr. High algebra can pretty quickly figure out what their computer model has predicted as a final score.

The "total" or "over/under" was determined DAYS before it was offered for wagering.  In this instance, 52...  So, with an opening line of NU -10, simple math says that the LVSC computer model sees this as a 31-21 game.

HTH.

 

I picture you as the Fitz of Atlantic City. I'd be much more embarrassed if I made post like yours. Good Lord.

[I_have_purplewood]

Vegas lines do not come from predicted scores. I'd say it's a tad high on the o/u, but far from a sure bet.

You could've deleted this, and saved yourself quite a bit of embarrassment.  But, I quoted it to make it easier to respond to this idiocy...

While I suppose you're "technically" right in that they don't "predict a score" and then throw a line out there based on that prediction.  However, anybody that has passed Jr. High algebra can pretty quickly figure out what their computer model has predicted as a final score.

The "total" or "over/under" was determined DAYS before it was offered for wagering.  In this instance, 52...  So, with an opening line of NU -10, simple math says that the LVSC computer model sees this as a 31-21 game.

HTH.

 

I picture you as the Fitz of Atlantic City. I'd be much more embarrassed if I made post like yours. Good Lord.

but, but, but he's a bookie pimp....   Seriously though, all of you guys feel free to post your thoughts on my weekly gambling thread.  tia

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Seeing as I how I made a living for about 6 years in the sports wagering industry, why don't all you geniuses clear things up for all of us...

This should be fun.

 

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Oct 07 07:45 PM EST  -  Football NCAA - 306 Kansas State Wildcats +19½ for Game      
Oct 09 03:30 PM EST  -  Football NCAA - 373 Texas A&M Aggies +13½ for Game    
Football 6 pt Teaser    90.00    81.82

Not generally a fan of CFB teasers, but this looks pretty solid to me.    GL2U

[06wildcat]

Seeing as I how I made a living for about 6 years in the sports wagering industry, why don't all you geniuses clear things up for all of us...

This should be fun.

 

For starters, nobody sets a line days in advance of releasing it to the public.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Seeing as I how I made a living for about 6 years in the sports wagering industry, why don't all you geniuses clear things up for all of us...

This should be fun.

 

For starters, nobody sets a line days in advance of releasing it to the public.

Are you rough ridin' kidding me?!?!?  LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) sets "opening lines", but doesn't take wagers.  What in the hell makes you think for a second that their computers didn't have the opening line determined  for this contest within HOURS of when the KSU & NU games ended on Setp. 27?? 

At that point, they had all the statistical information thaey needed to set not only the point spread, but also the TOTAL.  Just because they didn't realease them, doesn't mean they weren't calculated. 

Same with all the casinos, offshore books, etc. that don't use LVSC as their starting point.

Traditionally, sides come out on Sunday eve about 5pm CST or so, give or take a half hour and Totals come out on Tuesday mornings around 10am.   All this info is processed by computer within minutes of both  teams games ending for the subsequent contest.  When both teams have a bye the weekend before lines are released, I GUARANTEE that the line was set but not released LAST Sunday, Sept 28 pending any unannounced practice injuries, suspensions, etc. throughout the  open week that would have caused the line to go off the board.

[kcchiefdav]

OT: Bookie Pimp, why did you stop making your living off sports betting?

[Bqqkie Pimp]

OT: Bookie Pimp, why did you stop making your living off sports betting?

check your pm's...

[06wildcat]

Bookie, please give your explanation of how and why spreads and totals are set. Bonus points for more bullshit "simple math" equations for a total that also predicts the line. Double bonus points for explaining why a line would move.

[06wildcat]

OT: Bookie Pimp, why did you stop making your living off sports betting?

check your pm's...

I'd also like to request a pm.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

Bookie, please give your explanation of how and why spreads and totals are set. Bonus points for more bullcrap "simple math" equations for a total that also predicts the line. Double bonus points for explaining why a line would move.

a) to get balanced action.
b) never said the "total could predict the line".  simply stated that the predicted score the books' computers have come up with can be figured through "simple math"once the total is hung on Tues am...
c) to reduce "exposure" by the books as excessive money comes in on one side or the other as the book attempts to keep balanced action so that they are guaranteed a profit by holding the vig.

Do you really need the answers to all these questions, or just being a smart ass?  Trust me when I tell you that I've probably forgotten more about this crap over the years than you will likely ever know and I'm NOT impressed by your sophmoric questioning although I appeased you to shut you the eff up.

Run along junior...

 

[06wildcat]

Bookie, please give your explanation of how and why spreads and totals are set. Bonus points for more bullcrap "simple math" equations for a total that also predicts the line. Double bonus points for explaining why a line would move.

a) to get balanced action.
b) never said the "total could predict the line".  simply stated that the predicted score the books' computers have come up with can be figured through "simple math"once the total is hung on Tues am...
c) to reduce "exposure" by the books as excessive money comes in on one side or the other as the book attempts to keep balanced action so that they are guaranteed a profit by holding the vig.

Do you really need the answers to all these questions, or just being a smart ass?  Trust me when I tell you that I've probably forgotten more about this crap over the years than you will likely ever know and I'm NOT impressed by your sophmoric questioning although I appeased you to shut you the eff up.

Run along junior...

 

I guess I'm stuck on why you would try to determine the computer score from two independent variables. The computer could have just as easily spit out 3-0 KSU with the oddsmaker realizing that:

A: Everyone is picking NU
B: Everyone is taking the over.

Obviously in this scenario the oddsmaker would take over and manually underwrite the spread and total, which is apparently the case with the game since about every other public predictor out there has it at single digits.

[Bqqkie Pimp]

I guess I don't really see your point.    Why are you so certain that the LVSC computer model mirrors the "public predictors"?

Your whole argument seems to be that you are certain that the line was manually adjusted by some guy with gigantic kahunas that is likely better at figuring spreads in his head than a wagering driven computer formula that's been proven over literally thousands of games.


amirite?

 

[HugeUpside]

Seeing as I how I made a living for about 6 years in the sports wagering industry, why don't all you geniuses clear things up for all of us...

This should be fun.

 

For starters, nobody sets a line days in advance of releasing it to the public.

Are you foooocking kidding me?!?!?  LVSC (Las Vegas Sports Consultants) sets "opening lines", but doesn't take wagers.  What in the hell makes you think for a second that their computers didn't have the opening line determined  for this contest within HOURS of when the KSU & NU games ended on Setp. 27?? 

At that point, they had all the statistical information thaey needed to set not only the point spread, but also the TOTAL.  Just because they didn't realease them, doesn't mean they weren't calculated. 

Same with all the casinos, offshore books, etc. that don't use LVSC as their starting point.

Traditionally, sides come out on Sunday eve about 5pm CST or so, give or take a half hour and Totals come out on Tuesday mornings around 10am.   All this info is processed by computer within minutes of both  teams games ending for the subsequent contest.  When both teams have a bye the weekend before lines are released, I GUARANTEE that the line was set but not released LAST Sunday, Sept 28 pending any unannounced practice injuries, suspensions, etc. throughout the  open week that would have caused the line to go off the board.

...and I'll tell YOU what a vagina feels like.

[pissclams]

06 and ew's attempted PI here is pretty funny.   they ended up with a self-PI. 

[06wildcat]

I guess I don't really see your point.    Why are you so certain that the LVSC computer model mirrors the "public predictors"?

Your whole argument seems to be that you are certain that the line was manually adjusted by some guy with gigantic kahunas that is likely better at figuring spreads in his head than a wagering driven computer formula that's been proven over literally thousands of games.


amirite?

 

Because you're linking two independent wagers together and saying you can devise what the computer does with simple math. The computer sets the spread with the goal of betting parity. It sets the total with the goal of betting parity. The computer has no need to predict a spread or a total.

And my argument isn't that the line was arbitrarily set by one guy, it's that the computer, guy or chicken picking games isn't concerned with predicting a final score to provide the spread and total so trying to use "simple math" is rough ridin' Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).