CPU Predictos (Week 5)

[ew2x4]

Using this too much.

[The42Yardstick]

Using this too much.

This one was sarcastic. Did you listen to the podcast?

[CHONGS]

Ok here's the "real" answer:

The margin of error for this game is pretty large relatively speaking, it is only 73% certain of a NU victory.  So with ~95% certainty the game will have a spread of +/- 11 (the cat's can win by 2 or lose by 20).

[Rage Against the McKee]

Ok here's the "real" answer:

The margin of error for this game is pretty large relatively speaking, it is only 73% certain of a NU victory.  So with ~95% certainty the game will have a spread of +/- 11 (the cat's can win by 2 or lose by 20).

I'm sure you're right, but it seems kind of odd that K-State has a 27% chance of winning by 1 or more, but only  ~5% chance of winning by 3 or more. I guess I'll just take the 27% and 

[steve dave]

I'LL PUNCH YOUR LIGHTS OUT!

[Dr Rick Daris]

he's just making this stuff up as he goes along folks. you really just can't beat this.


btw,
i used the pythagorean theorem and one data set of points to the third power and ran last weeks weeks scores and came up with the prediction that chingon is a total dumbass. confidence level of 95% with margin of error plus or minus three. take it for what it's worth folks.




 

[CHONGS]

he's just making this stuff up as he goes along folks. you really just can't beat this.


btw,
i used the pythagorean theorem and one data set of points to the third power and ran last weeks weeks scores and came up with the prediction that chingon is a total dumbass. confidence level of 95% with margin of error plus or minus three. take it for what it's worth folks.




 

Here's a CPU:

Rick Daris gets his face stomped Thursday before the game. I know where you and your ugly little friends will be.  Your mouth just wrote a check even your fat ass can't cover.

[PoetWarrior]

I have a prediction:

The outcome of this game will largely be determined by the environment in which it is played.


Does this system take these factors into account?

[CHONGS]

I have a prediction:

The outcome of this game will largely be determined by the environment in which it is played.


Does this system take these factors into account?

IT DOES!

[PoetWarrior]

It should be very accurate then.


But that assumes the outcome of a football game could be predicted, by some means, which is absolutely ridiculous.

[Dr Rick Daris]

he's just making this stuff up as he goes along folks. you really just can't beat this.


btw,
i used the pythagorean theorem and one data set of points to the third power and ran last weeks weeks scores and came up with the prediction that chingon is a total dumbass. confidence level of 95% with margin of error plus or minus three. take it for what it's worth folks.




 

Here's a CPU:

Rick Daris gets his face stomped Thursday before the game. I know where you and your ugly little friends will be.  Your mouth just wrote a check even your fat ass can't cover.

 

[CHONGS]

It should be very accurate then.


But that assumes the outcome of a football game could be predicted, by some means, which is absolutely ridiculous.

Not really.  It won't be 100% accurate, but it can give you a substantially better than uninformed prediction.

[kso_FAN]

Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.

[CHONGS]

Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.

Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).

[kso_FAN]

Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.

Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).

That makes sense.  It would be interesting to see the numbers run on adjusted points per special teams play.  Probably a ton of more work for you though.

[slimz]

It appears the CPU is used to set the Vegas lines and O/U: 12 point spread, 52 O/U.

[steve dave]

Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.

Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).

That makes sense.  It would be interesting to see the numbers run on adjusted points per special teams play.  Probably a ton of more work for you though.

It would be interesting to see the numbers run by someone who wasn't A SQWUAK HUSKER NAZI!

[The42Yardstick]

Skipper44 asked a very good question in a previous thread (IMHO); how does the CPU take into account special teams play?

TIA.

Sorry about that, it slipped my mind.

Short answer:  it is indirectly accounted for in the Def and Off efficiencies. 

Longer answer:  Since yardage is NOT the rubric used to compare offenses (or defenses) and ONLY  adjusted points scored per play, a score on a special teams play is equal to a score on a regular offensive play (as well as an interception on a defensive play).

That makes sense.  It would be interesting to see the numbers run on adjusted points per special teams play.  Probably a ton of more work for you though.

It would be interesting to see the numbers run by someone who wasn't A SQWUAK HUSKER NAZI!

Are you going to want to fire Snyder if we win?